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Old 02-13-2009, 07:40 AM
Location: Indian Trail, NC
314 posts, read 1,027,683 times
Reputation: 129


You know, the whole housing thing isn't going to get better until people start buying. If NOBODY is buying house, then it's going to get worse and worse. "Don't buy a house until the market improves" is horrible advice to help bring up the market. If everyone did that, the entire housing market would collapse because nobody would buy houses, which would drive prices down further, which would make sure nobody buys houses, which would drive prices further, and so on.

Old 02-13-2009, 07:40 AM
Location: Crown Town
2,742 posts, read 5,997,472 times
Reputation: 1667
You might want to try consulting some independent third party data next time you try to do this type of analysis. This very recent article below seems to contradict your hypothesis…

From a CNN Money article today (2/13/09)…

“…the hottest cities in the U.S. for home buyers in Q4 of 2008…according to ZipRealty's Q4 "Home Hunters Report" released today, Charlotte, N.C. sellers are getting much more than asking price, with listings fetching the highest sales-to-list price ratio for sold homes during the same time period at 122 percent….”

Article: Phoenix/Scottsdale, Orlando and Charlotte Among Hottest Areas in U.S. for Home Buyers, According to ZipRealty Q4 2008 "Home Hunters Report" (http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0474043.htm - broken link)

Full Report: http://www.ziprealty.com/pdf/2008_4Q_HomeHunterReport.pdf (broken link)
Old 02-13-2009, 07:42 AM
Location: State of Being
35,885 posts, read 67,212,814 times
Reputation: 22375
Please provide all data and methodologies. I work w/ data and this looks screwy to me.

It does not make a tinker's damn what a house is listed at unless I can see an appraisal for each house and compare that to SELLING PRICE. A person can list a house at any price he/she wants to. So I list my house for $600,000 and it sells for $480,000. What does that tell the observer? Not a damn thing except I wanted $600,000 for my house but settled for $480,000. Maybe my house was never worth $600,000. Maybe it was never worth more than $500,000.

The other informative piece of data would be . . . purchase price, date of purchase price and selling price.

I can make a chart for any subject and skewer it to look like anything I want it to look like.

Show me the data. Otherwise, this is just more worthless garbage.

You get me the data I proposed and then we can talk about Charlotte's market. Otherwise, this is just chicken scratch and worth doodly squat.
Old 02-13-2009, 08:11 AM
Location: Crown Town
2,742 posts, read 5,997,472 times
Reputation: 1667
Originally Posted by DavidMar View Post
I posted about 5-7 months ago and warned people that it was an awful time to buy....
Also, could you please provide a link to what you posted 5-7 months ago, I'm sure we'd all like to go back and review it again. Thanks.
Old 02-13-2009, 08:27 AM
577 posts, read 1,737,075 times
Reputation: 325
Carolina blue, interesting how you interpret this zip reality information. I take it that you look at this as good news that Charlotte is selling at close to asking price, which means the economy is okay in NC! I read this in a different prespective, it states homes are selling closer to asking prices but does not tell you the number of homes that are selling are down to historical lows. So less homes are selling but the few that are are getting close to asking price. Another tidbit in here was the increasing focus on the bubble states for people to invest verses here, which will drive down sales even more. quote from the article::: Note the declining price part, as well as listing the bargins in places like Clearwater beach Florida and CA. The new wave will be to buy up priced reduced areas and thats not NC..

"Homebuyers have long-flocked to sunshine states to find their permanent residence, a second home or even an investment property. Combining warm weather with declining home prices and an increase in foreclosure properties is a recipe that's attracting potential homebuyers to cities in the Southwest, Southeast and much of California," explains Leslie Tyler, vice president and chief home hunter for ZipRealty.
Old 02-13-2009, 08:57 AM
Location: Weddington, NC
284 posts, read 531,458 times
Reputation: 293
In a nutshell:

Have things slowed down in the housing market? Yes (Thanks, Captain Obvious)

Is there a reason to panic? Perhaps if you flip houses - otherwise, probably not

Are people still buying houses? Yes - I live in a new neighborhood, two lots just sold near me last week - I know the buyers got great deals, but the builder is not giving them away

Is the housing market behaving just like other markets on this side of a business cycle? Absolutely, and it's perfectly normal
Old 02-13-2009, 09:03 AM
Location: Highland Creek Area
327 posts, read 1,061,254 times
Reputation: 143
My overall take on this is as follows:

Statistics can be manipulated to show whatever you want,

Charlotte's market has faired better than most thus far; however,

That doesn't mean that the market here is good,

Buying a house is a personal choice based on personal finances,

No one can legitimately say that someone should or should not buy a house without having full access to that individual's finances - recommending that no one or everyone buy a house now does no one any good,

Indiscriminate buying AND lending are in large part, what got the country into this mess in the first place,

As with any purchase, you'd better make sure you have the means to pay off the loan, whether it be a home, a car, a credit card, etc. - this means the capital to put down and the sustained income to complete the transaction.

None of these ideas should be new to anyone here. You buy when and what you can afford.
Old 02-13-2009, 11:50 AM
Location: NE Charlotte, NC (University City)
1,894 posts, read 5,742,028 times
Reputation: 1041
Originally Posted by massageman View Post
Ah, so you're sticking with your old mantra that "it's different here?"...

I stick with what I know...and it is different here in the positive. So yeah, I'm sticking. Don't know if it's a mantra or not. I guess if mantra can be synonymous with fact, then sure. I really feel sorry for you that you can't see through it and get ticked at those who refuse to think life sucks (as well as the place they choose to live it).
Old 02-13-2009, 11:55 AM
9,569 posts, read 27,064,579 times
Reputation: 9734
Originally Posted by sullyman View Post
This chart does not tell the story you are trying convey. What this chart says to me is houses that currently being listed are being listed for $312,000 or so and houses that are being sold are being sold for $190,000. Not that $312,000 houses are being sold for $190,000. this Shows me lower priced houses are selling and higher priced one are not. To support your theory you need to look at the list and sale price of each home sold and determine the percentage difference between sale and list price. The chart should then show the change in the relationship between the list price and sale price. Example; were houses being sold for 99% of list price 3 years ago and now they are being sold gor 94% of list price. That will tell the story.
You are correct. I was thinking the same thing. The OP is comparing one average to another. However, there are various homes in various price ranges on the market at the same time. As you pointed out "To support [the OP's] theory you need to look at the list and sale price of each home sold and determine the percentage difference between sale and list price."

The conclusions made by the OP are not supported by his post.
Old 02-13-2009, 12:00 PM
Location: NC
1,673 posts, read 1,531,527 times
Reputation: 523
Wow. What an excellent made graph of misleading statistics.
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