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Old 02-13-2009, 05:38 PM
 
251 posts, read 499,028 times
Reputation: 164

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Wow, this is a really heated discussion. To all those who are holding their breath about housing prices stablizing in and around charlotte.......you just have to face reality. Prices are coming down and will for a while.

People bought houses at a peak and many need to get out for various reasons. The problem is, many potentail buyers cant get approved for loans and that means less people are available to buy. The supply of homes is far greater than the demand. When supply out weighs demand, prices fall. This is a pure and simple fact about economics. If the banks begin to lay of thousands, it will get worse.

Heres a real world example: My buddy and his wife, both nicely employed, want to sell their house here in NY and move to Mooresville. Their house could have sold three years ago for $600,000......now they cant even get and offer over $400,000 ( its listed at $495,000.....bought in 1999 for $295,000... fyi ). The numbers are irrelevant, but this example is happening ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.

For those who may WANT to ( but dont truly need to ) sell.....they will try and hold out for buyers who may pay what they are asking or wait for a rebound. Those who NEED to sell, will be forced to lower their prices to the appropriate level in order to get a buyer.......and it will be like this for a couple years. I think its safe to say that the crazy appreciations in home values that happend in the late 90's to 2006 wont be happening any time soon. Its back to realistic appreciations increses once the bottom hits in each region.....and each region will bottom and rebound at different times.

 
Old 02-13-2009, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Up above the world so high!
45,270 posts, read 88,184,473 times
Reputation: 39838
Quote:
Originally Posted by noupf View Post
Wow, this is a really heated discussion. To all those who are holding their breath about housing prices stablizing in and around charlotte.......you just have to face reality. Prices are coming down and will for a while.

People bought houses at a peak and many need to get out for various reasons. The problem is, many potentail buyers cant get approved for loans and that means less people are available to buy. The supply of homes is far greater than the demand. When supply out weighs demand, prices fall. This is a pure and simple fact about economics. If the banks begin to lay of thousands, it will get worse.

Heres a real world example: My buddy and his wife, both nicely employed, want to sell their house here in NY and more to Mooresville. Their house could have sold three years ago for $600,000......now they cant even get and offer over $400,000 ( its listed at $495,000 fyi ). The numbers are irrelevant, but this example is happening ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.
"People bought houses at a peak and many need to get out for various reasons" - this is a HUGE generalization and oversimplification!

Not everybody bought their homes at over-inflated prices. That tended to happen a lot in new construction neighborhoods the last 5 years, but not so much in our existing, established neighborhoods. Many, many homes in Charlotte have had slow, but steady appreciation over the last 20 years (my 30 year old home is a great example of that) and their prices are not falling like you seem to think.

It was stated on the news the other day that the AVERAGE home in Charlotte is selling for $30,000 less today than it would have before the housing crisis. But that's just an average, a certain percentage are still selling for within $10,000 of what they would have sold for before.

You just have to remember, real estate is a local story - you can't apply what you see happening in your area (New York state, I think?) to what is happening here in Charlotte.
 
Old 02-13-2009, 05:51 PM
 
330 posts, read 930,826 times
Reputation: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidMar View Post
It's so obvious as to why I'm here it hurts.
You're the real estate Batman?
 
Old 02-13-2009, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,623,104 times
Reputation: 3689
Wow, havent' read c/d all day and find this thread....

I've got alot of reading to do on this one....
 
Old 02-13-2009, 06:37 PM
 
7,103 posts, read 9,681,583 times
Reputation: 2563
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
Wow, havent' read c/d all day and find this thread....

I've got alot of reading to do on this one....
Not really Jack. Quite honestly it's the same old same old. Two sides of the fence.More like watching a tennis game only played in slow motion. Boring to tell you the truth. Only thing that kept me awake is this guy Tober.If he was my bridge partner I think I would change careers and tour the country with that dude. Man, he know his stuff. Ton of money playing bridge with a ringer like him as your partner.
 
Old 02-13-2009, 06:51 PM
 
7,103 posts, read 9,681,583 times
Reputation: 2563
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidMar View Post



Think about it.

Can anybody think of a single reason why I would attempt to convince people NOT to buy a house in Charlotte?

Think, think, think.



The only thing I can think of is that I own places in Charlotte I would like to rent

It's so obvious as to why I'm here it hurts.
OK I am thinking, thinking, thinking.
Let me think. So you could profit by renting and not selling?? Gee. I don't know. Maybe? Or, maybe something more like a little trick I used to do 10 years ago. I would attempt to convert any renter that walked into my office into buying one of my houses.
It's kinda like throw enough caki against the wall and see which idea works?
Here's the script: (never mind too tired now my favorite cartoon program is going on at nine. Albiet this is funnier)
 
Old 02-13-2009, 07:25 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
7,041 posts, read 13,089,302 times
Reputation: 2323
David, if you live in PA, for the life of me, I cannot figure out WHY you would care if someone bought a house in Charlotte, NC. I could *almost* understand it if you lived here and had some kind of vested interest in the matter. However, living quite a few miles away, and (according to you) not in the financial industry nor any form of financial advisor position, you are most adamant that people NOT buy houses here.

WHY???

Now, admittedly, I am a mortgage underwriter. However, due to recent structure changes in my office, I have nothing to do with new purchases, the mortgages that I currently underwrite are around the country (and not just Charlotte) and are second mortgages such as home equity loans or lines of credit. So, I have nothing to gain if people buy/don't buy homes. I will agree that home prices are dropping; that is a drum that I have been beating for awhile. However, I DO NOT agree that it will be a "market crash" and life as we know it will be over here in Charlotte...that is ludicrous.

Again, even if it WERE to happen...how would it affect YOU in western PA?? What would YOU care?? You do not seem to be overly generous nor one that is deeply affected by the misery in people's lives...so, WHY, WHY, WHY???

I am also wondering why you are so against people owning a home? Perhaps, as John and others have said, you are really in the rental industry? Because, statistically speaking, real estate is STILL the best investment that there is. Banks can go under (we saw that this past fall), people can get robbed or some other form of tragedy can strike which would destroy your savings. But, a home is rock-solid. Sure, there are expenses. But, there are expenses no matter where you live. And, one day, unless they jump on that refinance bandwagon too many times, that 20-something will have that house paid for by the time that they are 50 and then, they can live there rent free during those years when it matters. (so, it really would not matter whether the house lost value in the middle) Again, even if they had to upkeep or expenses, it sure would be cheaper than maintaining a rental residence. Our grandparents and great-grandparents knew this and that is why most of them, even if they were recent immigrants to this country, saved to the point that they could buy a house; sometimes a two flat so that other family members could live there, too. Most times, they lived in these homes well into their retirement and, after their death, the proceeds from the sale of these homes afforded their heirs the money to buy THEIR house.

David, er, London Lawyer , I would just like to know your motivation behind this inflammatory information. Seriously. Maybe then, we could understand you and even take you a little more seriously. You are taking a small particle of truth and inflating it beyond measure. This is not only dangerous, but, it is very sad. Some folks might take you seriously and become severely depressed. Seriously, with the news media spewing garbage at us daily, we really do not need anything more to make this worse.

So, please just answer the question that you, yourself posed:

"WHY"???
 
Old 02-13-2009, 07:52 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
7,041 posts, read 13,089,302 times
Reputation: 2323
David, my apologies...it looks like you are really massageman (not Londonlawyer)...and you are arguing against yourself????

Makes this even more bizarre...
 
Old 02-13-2009, 08:02 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,623,104 times
Reputation: 3689
I agree/disagree w/many points on this thread, however I'll just make a couple points.

The graph the OP posted is very interesting to me. Not really the spread, but just the numbers that are provided. Is there public access (in spreadsheet form) to these numbers? As expected, its easier to get into Fort Knox than it is to find out legitimate data on this housing market here. I'm really curious about the inventory numbers? I'd like to know that...

Regarding the spread, it does not look good, and frankly I'm not surprised because I follow the area trends for Charlotte and surrounding suburbs every month. People can disagree, but I can provide breakdowns by area of how lousy each segment is doing. I will not cut and paste sunshine articles like certain posters will do. I will provide original thoughts, and actual hard data that shows TRUE % of listing price (which includes concessions) that homeowners are getting...not the inflated percentages that the NAR puts out.
 
Old 02-13-2009, 08:08 PM
 
Location: State of Being
35,885 posts, read 66,928,139 times
Reputation: 22369
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagocubs View Post
David, my apologies...it looks like you are really massageman (not Londonlawyer)...and you are arguing against yourself????

Makes this even more bizarre...
I think all of us are going somewhat around in circles at this point!

David - no offense - but I just haven't seen that much cogent material to work with. I think we all agree that the housing market has been affected all over the country - but that Charlotte never had the same peaks that many other cities have had - so the suffering is not as dramatic.

I mean - what else is there to say? People who are in the mindset of buying property and then immediately seeing a big spike in "value" are gonna have to just forget that. Those days are gone, and good riddance.

Investment property is a totally different category than a house to live in. Maybe people have gotten that mixed up along the way . . .
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