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Old 02-13-2009, 08:44 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 4,542,961 times
Reputation: 1072

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Ok, I have found a new passion to do in my free time and that's researching and analyzing real estate data!

I created a spreadsheet of a subdivision to show how house prices are 'holding up' in Charlotte. I have chosen the subdivision Huntingtowne Farms. I don't have access to the new listing price, but I pulled up information by year and have the addresses, sold price, sold date, sqftage, and calculated the price/sqft. (I can send you the spreadsheet if you want for the breakdown, DM with your email address). I took the averages and this is what I found:

Year Median Sale Price Price/Sqft
2000 $197,682 88
2001 $223,033 91
2002 $213,421 90
2003 $207,036 95
2004 $211,833 97
2005 $216,125 99
2006 $248,100 109
2007 $280,100 131
2008 $276,136 133

The below information is the current listings in that same subdivision as of today:

Sqft List Price Price/Sqft
2658 $300,000 $112.87 UnderContract
2260 $367,900 $162.79
3143 $349,000 $111.04
2422 $340,000 $140.38
2541 $339,000 $133.41
3193 $335,000 $104.92 UnderContract
2212 $295,000 $133.36
2129 $284,900 $133.82
2226 $277,000 $124.44
2366 $265,000 $112.00
1998 $229,000 $114.61
1633 $189,000 $115.74

You guys can make your own analysis of the real hard data.

 
Old 02-13-2009, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,669,212 times
Reputation: 3695
This seems like a small development. How many homes are in it? Only 12 for sale w/a realtor...
 
Old 02-13-2009, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,669,212 times
Reputation: 3695
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheenie2000 View Post
Ok, I have found a new passion to do in my free time and that's researching and analyzing real estate data!

I created a spreadsheet of a subdivision to show how house prices are 'holding up' in Charlotte. I have chosen the subdivision Huntingtowne Farms. I don't have access to the new listing price, but I pulled up information by year and have the addresses, sold price, sold date, sqftage, and calculated the price/sqft. (I can send you the spreadsheet if you want for the breakdown, DM with your email address). I took the averages and this is what I found:

Year Median Sale Price Price/Sqft
2000 $197,682 88
2001 $223,033 91
2002 $213,421 90
2003 $207,036 95
2004 $211,833 97
2005 $216,125 99
2006 $248,100 109
2007 $280,100 131
2008 $276,136 133

The below information is the current listings in that same subdivision as of today:

Sqft List Price Price/Sqft
2658 $300,000 $112.87 UnderContract
2260 $367,900 $162.79
3143 $349,000 $111.04
2422 $340,000 $140.38
2541 $339,000 $133.41
3193 $335,000 $104.92 UnderContract
2212 $295,000 $133.36
2129 $284,900 $133.82
2226 $277,000 $124.44
2366 $265,000 $112.00
1998 $229,000 $114.61
1633 $189,000 $115.74

You guys can make your own analysis of the real hard data.
I just took a quick peak at those two that are under contract..(remember, there is no guarantee they will complete the sale..esp in todays market)

one of the homes was on the market for 143 days..

the other one was on for over 180 days (no telling how much over)...

Is there a realtor worth their weight in gold that could advise on the price reductions they faced, or the concessions given by the sellers so we can get a more accurate picture? Or even the history of the various owners throughout the history of these 40 yr old homes...thanks
 
Old 02-13-2009, 09:34 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 4,542,961 times
Reputation: 1072
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
This seems like a small development. How many homes are in it? Only 12 for sale w/a realtor...
Yea I chose this because it was quicker to extrapolate information since it's less houses. And it seems to be one of those steady, established subdivisions. If someone wants me to use another subdivision, let me know, I can work on it this weekend and see how that's doing.

Coupon, where do you find the days on market for the houses?

I know those under contract ones may not go through, but I found it interesting that the price/sqft for both of them have around 105-110 dollars. And that's the list price, we don't know the selling price. I'll revive the thread once we get that and keep track of it to see how it goes.
 
Old 02-14-2009, 04:48 AM
 
7,109 posts, read 9,731,434 times
Reputation: 2564
Default Here's how to change "days on the market"

Quote:
Originally Posted by sheenie2000 View Post

Coupon, where do you find the days on market for the houses?
Now we're talking about figures lie and liars figure. "Days on the market" is easy to find and TOTALLY misleading unless you dig further and become a person that believes NOTHING even when it's in front of you.

On the MLS listing there's a line (I think it's near upper right not quite sure) that says "DOM". Easy. But a year ago I followed a house for a couple of months over in the 4th ward. One day I look at the listing again. DOM says 6!
I investigate. Well there are "re-listings". Kinda like having 9 lives in order to fool the buyer.In fact this house was relisted 3times! Sure there are rules on relisting (before I hear from every real estate agent on board) but this seller was the selling broker. Did she follow the rules of relisting.I doubt it.

Disclaimer: Not every person is dishonest. But there are always a few around. Charts published by Johne482 will show you there are more of them when times are tough. It is simply human nature.
 
Old 02-14-2009, 05:58 AM
 
50 posts, read 111,470 times
Reputation: 39
Despite all the charts and graphs, analytics, and data interpretation.
If you are thinking of buying a house, now is a good time to do so. A house is a long term investment. If you buy a house today and it goes down in value 5-10% in the next year, does it really matter? You still have a place to live. Did the decline in value hurt your cash flow, take money away from your savings, take food out of your kids mouths, keep you from paying you heat bill??? It is a paper loss and affects nothing until you sell. If you plan on keeping the house for only 1 or 2 years then it is not a good idea to buy, but if you buy now and sell 20 years from now, that 5-10% paper loss in the short term will be outweighed by the gains and soon forgotten. Plus you have had a place to live that you can call your own (and the banks) and do with it as you please.

I am not in any real estate related proffession.
 
Old 02-14-2009, 07:10 AM
 
1,163 posts, read 1,963,549 times
Reputation: 1106
Quote:
Originally Posted by massageman View Post
Another point I disagree with you about is the 1-2% increase you talk about. I think the number is much higher than that, isn't it, more like 5%? I thought the 1-2% is really the amount above inflation that homes have historically increased.
Average home appreciation is 5% only if you "cherry pick" the time horizon and location. Average home appreciation is less than 1 percent per year for the United States since 1900. I believe it falls between 1 to 2 percent over the last 50 years.

Just remember, over a long period of time homes cannot outpace inflation unless real wages outpace inflation or there is a large shortage of housing. Real wages are falling and there is an oversupply of housing.

You are correct about "sold" prices. My Realtor informed us that $300K+ homes are not selling well, but houses in the $150K to the $270ish range are still selling fairly well. It sounds like a bad time to try and unload a "McMansion." In any event, it helps explain the discrepancy in the OP's chart. The economy is causing "wise" consumers to purchase cheaper homes. My wife and I are a good example. We could easily afford a much more expensive home (nearly double what we spent.) However, we chose a home that meets our needs (but not all our "wants") for a much lower price due to the gloomy economic outlook. I think that many buyers are choosing this logic.
 
Old 02-14-2009, 07:17 AM
 
3,774 posts, read 7,008,690 times
Reputation: 4402
To the poster who erroneously stated that volumes are at *historic lows*...

Not true... unless you're 5 years old and can't remember 2003.
 
Old 02-14-2009, 08:46 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
422 posts, read 1,216,711 times
Reputation: 240
WOW!

It must be hard to be so doom and gloom.

I sell new construction for a living (Which by the way, I average 3 houses a month and am totally out of inventory)...

Will my job last forever? Will I continue to make good money? I dont know... but I know the worries and what ifs do not consume my life..

Yes, things are not the best right now, but you or nobody for that matter can predict the future.

Im happy and thankful that I have a roof over my head! Whether my home lost equity or not, I am happy...

So..... I guess what Im asking is- Why all the doom and gloom? Realestate is my bread and butter, if anyone should be so freaked out, it should be me!
 
Old 02-14-2009, 09:09 AM
 
140 posts, read 286,591 times
Reputation: 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidMar View Post
The evidence is now getting very large. Here's a graph of asking price at time of list and actual sales price (note that inventory is about the same as it was a year ago):



Couple things absolutely jump off of this graph. First is that initial list price is now more that 120,000 greater than final sales price. Put differently, people are only getting about 61% of their original list price when they finally sell. That's staggering. Second is that the floor has now dropped out from the final price of homes. The current average sales price is 60,000 below the last high, and is lower than any of the data for the last 42 months. With the exception of a slight hesitation in October 08, the price of houses has been on a ramp down for the last 5 months.

I posted about 5-7 months ago and warned people that it was an awful time to buy. I'm back to say that now is even a worse time to buy. The economy is falling off a cliff, housing markets continue to crash across the country, and Charlotte has now entered the decline full time.

Here's my advice - if you can't put down 50% and be sure that you are going to live in your house the rest of your life, RENT. If you rent instead of buy, you're going to see the prices of houses in Charlotte continue to plummet.

Finally, I'd love to hear everybody's theory on why asking price is going through the roof when final purchase prices are falling through the floor.
(HINT - those who are in over their heads and can't pay the mortgage are desperate to sell and not take a loss. So they set the asking price unrealistically high, figuring, "when we took that option ARM 3 years ago we paid 250,000. But with all the accrued interest and with Realtor fees and with that 10k of "equity" we withdrew we need to sell for 310,000 to break even, so that's what we'll start at."

It's a complete disaster in the making. If you're young, and you're not sure where this is all going, take my advice - RENT, and keep watching the stats - prices have only one way to go.
All in all this is a good assessment of the severity of not just the housing situation but of the entire economy as well.
Now having said that, what would happen if inflation does go up sky high, taking rent prices to the roof? Those who are locked into a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage all of the sudden would not be in dire straits. I wonder if that was part of the plan all along when the Fed and the previous administration used the printing press until say uncle. Not that this will be a pretty scenario either b/c you would be talking about some serious hyperinflation but it could be a relief for millions of American households of some sort. The Fed; however was very reckless managing rates and now that are almost down to zero would be even harder to just keep on printing w/o very serious consequences, especially now that the government is spending (printing) all the money they do not have.

I am very dissapointed at the new administration since at this juncture it appears that they do not have a cohesive plan to attack this crisis, and all I keep hearing is mere rhetoric. The stimulus ($400 ain't gonna help me that much I can tell you) is a joke and it's filled with pork, while I still have not heard what I would like to hear which is a very dramatic change in the widespread morals of all the financing institutions of this country. The report about the compensation obtained by the higher tier of execs at Merrill Lynch must be fully investigated b/c ladies and gentlemen those crooks ROBBED US ALL by using money off the first bailout to make themselves EVEN more richer. Mr. Obama must use these white collar criminals and set them as examples, these people MUST do some serious time and I for one as a law abiding citizen and TAXPAYER will demand not just an explanation but results and will not cease until those corrupt SOBs end up in jail!
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