Charlotte Housing Crash Well Under Way . . . (Clayton: Home Depot, unemployment, buyer)

[Bramca]

I am so happy and feel so fortunate that we were able to purchase the home we recently bought. We were part of a corporate relocation and would have lost some of the financial perks for not purchasing by the end of the year not to mention the 15000 tax credit for purchasing this year. We purchased a home in a desireable area. We bought 20% below selling price 3 years ago and believe we would have lost the opportunity had we been greedy or waited for the house to drop lower. The 10K we may have saved waiting a year would have been spent in 4 months renting the same home. It was a great deal and a great opportunity. Not to mention, that this home is 1000 sq ft less then our previous home because we do understand the economy and wanted to make sure our cash reserves could sustain the home if the unforseen loss of employment happened to us. This is a home we will be happy to live in during the recession/depression. It is a home we feel will be perfect for our aging parents if/when the economy bounces back and if we decide to "build or buy up". We could get them closer to us and maintain the mortgage. It is a home we would consider keeping as a summer home or rental property if we are relocated. We also asked ourselves could we be happy if this is our final home and we said definitively Yes! We felt it was a win win situation any way looked upon.

The OP's position on waiting doesn't make sense for everyone. If everyone were to be in the market at the same time when the supposed bottom occurs the demand will just create prices to go back up again. Each potential buyer needs to look at their situation expect the best, but prepare for the worst outcome. And then proceed. Great deals and opportunities are available now.

[DavidMar]

Originally Posted by Tober138

Suggesting that you buy a statistics textbook was not a personal attack,

Come now, no need to obfuscate. It was clearly a personal attack.

It is universally understood that when you tell somebody to "go buy a book" about a topic that they have just discussed, you are telling them, "you are ignorant and you should go educate yourself."

But please be advised - I'm fine with the personal attacks. I won't return any. You seem like an articulate and intelligent person.

Somebody called me a retard on this thread.

I kinduv figure that, when the other side of any argument has no data to offer but instead has pejoratives like "retard" to pin to my forehead, my argument must have been fairly compelling.

[DavidMar]

Originally Posted by sheenie2000

Year Median Sale Price Price/Sqft
2000 $197,682 88
2001 $223,033 91
2002 $213,421 90
2003 $207,036 95
2004 $211,833 97
2005 $216,125 99
2006 $248,100 109
2007 $280,100 131
2008 $276,136 133

Great post. 40% appreciation over an 8 year span strongly suggest BUBBLE.

Expect at least 40% depreciation from peak to bottom.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by Bramca

I am so happy and feel so fortunate that we were able to purchase the home we recently bought. We were part of a corporate relocation and would have lost some of the financial perks for not purchasing by the end of the year not to mention the 15000 tax credit for purchasing this year. We purchased a home in a desireable area. We bought 20% below selling price 3 years ago and believe we would have lost the opportunity had we been greedy or waited for the house to drop lower. The 10K we may have saved waiting a year would have been spent in 4 months renting the same home. It was a great deal and a great opportunity. Not to mention, that this home is 1000 sq ft less then our previous home because we do understand the economy and wanted to make sure our cash reserves could sustain the home if the unforseen loss of employment happened to us. This is a home we will be happy to live in during the recession/depression. It is a home we feel will be perfect for our aging parents if/when the economy bounces back and if we decide to "build or buy up". We could get them closer to us and maintain the mortgage. It is a home we would consider keeping as a summer home or rental property if we are relocated. We also asked ourselves could we be happy if this is our final home and we said definitively Yes! We felt it was a win win situation any way looked upon.

The OP's position on waiting doesn't make sense for everyone. If everyone were to be in the market at the same time when the supposed bottom occurs the demand will just create prices to go back up again. Each potential buyer needs to look at their situation expect the best, but prepare for the worst outcome. And then proceed. Great deals and opportunities are available now.

vg post, however the 15K was shelved.....8K for the homebuyers credit. Also, no one said the OP's position makes sense for everyone. that's why its a poll. Just like it doesn't make sense for everyone sitting on the sidelines to buy now....

Sounds like you didn't buy more than you're able to handle.....nice job.

[sheenie2000]

Here's one example that proves the OP's point:

3106 Providence Road, Charlotte NC 28211 - Trulia

Original list price 825,000. New list price 450,000.
That's very dramatic. For real estate agents to toot that people are getting 96% to list price, is not the true picture.
How can you ignore drops like this?

This house still has no takers yet...
This guy at least still is above his purchase price so far, but guess what that does to the comps for the neighborhood once someone finally buys the house?

Also, what does that do to someone who purchased the at the peak of the bubble at around 700,800k? They will be then underwater...

I'd like too add, maybe he made up the original list price, but it does seem like that number was based on something...(like recent comps to justify it). While the house is on a main road, it is in a top notch area with excellent schools and homes that sold for a million dollars nearby..

[North_Raleigh_Guy]

Originally Posted by Tober138

Well then - I could plot a graph, and replace the one plotted line (asking price) with, say, my age. Then we would have a graph showing that as I have gotten older in the past 42 months, sales prices have fallen. The "accuracy" of the graph could not be disputed - as the data would contain no errors. What could be disputed is how meaningful the presented data is - which was my point regarding your initial post.



Suggesting that you buy a statistics textbook was not a personal attack, nor was I being facetious. It was a serious suggestion. If you are going to speak about statistics and data, it would probably help if you had a better understanding of statistical methodology - the fact that you rely solely on overall averages to prove a point, and as the single basis from which you choose to extrapolate your hypothesis, suggests a lack of understanding in that area. Also - when it comes to stats, the question is not so much one of "accuracy" (the anchor of your argument) but, rather, one of "validity".




The "holes" I find in your statements have nothing to do with the graph itself - where I find 'holes" is in how you have chosen to interpret this graph as the basis for your statements and suggestions. It does show average asking price compared to average sales price (with no other controls) - that is clear. But that is the only point you can make with this graph - asking prices have gone up and sales prices have gone down in the time period plotted. You cannot use this chart as the basis to validly make, or support, any other statement that you have made.

For the record, since you were quoting from my previous post in this one of yours, I'm neither a realtor or a banker - I work in pharmaceutical research.

This post lays out very clearly and in a respectful way the numerous problems with the logic used in the original post. Well done.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

This post lays out very clearly and in a respectful way the numerous problems with the logic used in the original post. Well done.

If the "logic" wasn't used correctly as you say, then present us with the "correct" one.

[sheenie2000]

Yes I'm waiting for data to prove against what I have showed as well as what the OP has showed.

So far I haven't seen anything except people posting sunshine articles and people's opinions on why they think it's wrong.

If someone wants to present data but does not have the time to research it, let me know, I'll happily look up the data you want me to.

[North_Raleigh_Guy]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

If the "logic" wasn't used correctly as you say, then present us with the "correct" one.

Jack I think Tober has already done that pretty well. No need to do it again.

FWIW, I'm not debating whether or not Charlotte home prices have increased or decreased. Just agreeing with others who have pointed out, quite correctly, that the graph provided by the OP does not show what he thinks it does. It's odd in that the OP could quite possibly be 100% correct in his overall conclusion but that still doesn't change the fact that the graph he has chosen (average list price vs. avera sale price) does not support his arguement in the way he thinks it does.

Again others have pointed out the error in that approach so I don't feel the need to do so again. I just thought tober did a particularly good job at it. I also didn't see it as a personal attack suggesting the OP familiarize himself with the proper use of statistical analysis. It was a valid suggestion. The fact that the OP doesn't see a problem with the graph he provided is proof enough of that. I hope you understand now.

[DavidMar]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

The fact that the OP doesn't see a problem with the graph he provided is proof enough of that. I hope you understand now.

There is no problem at all with the graph, whether people would like to "see" a problem or not.

The graph is flawless.

Of course, the data can be interpreted in different ways, but don't attack the raw data.

The data are the data.

All I did was take them from the realtor site and put them in a graph so that they would be more easy to look at than a list of numbers.

My interpretation of the data is:

1. Average home price in Charlotte is falling rapidly. This is indisputable, as this is exactly what one trend line shows.

2. The growing gap between average original list price and final average sales price portends very bad things for the housing market in Charlotte - this is arguable.

But we have one poster who is willing to do the research.

Let's stop all the hand waving and simply state what data you think will support the proposition that any segment of the Charlotte market is not in aggressive decline. Well?

By the way, I have a BS and an MS in science, and I have little doubt that I have a better grasp of statistics than most.

I presented two line graphs people - this is not regression analysis here. The graphs I created could be created by any competent 6th grader.

If you don't like my analysis - that's fine.

But to suggest that I "go read a book" is a bit odd.

Anyone want to state right now where prices will be in a year?

Hmm?

I'll estimate that average sales price in 1 year will be down 20% from what it is now.

If you think it will be up from what it is now, say so.

Time will prove one of us right - whether it's me - the statistical retard, or you.