Well, I certainly won't make any bold predictions about which area will outgrow which in the future. However, here are some interesting facts on the growth of both areas between 2000 and 2008.
The following are the stats on all counties in the Charlotte Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
Mecklenburg County
526 sq/mi of land
695,370 (2000 population)
890,515 (2008 population)
28.1% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Mecklenburg County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Gaston County
356 sq/mi of land
190,422 (2000 population)
206,679 (2008 population)
8.5% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Gaston County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
York County
682 sq/mi of land
164,623 (2000 population)
217,448 (2008 population)
32.1% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
York County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Union County
637 sq/mi of land
123,772 (2000 population)
193,255 (2008 population)
56.1% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Union County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Cabarrus County
364 sq/mi of land
131,063 (2000 population)
168,740 (2008 population)
28.7% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Cabarrus County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Anson County
532 sq/mi of land
25,275 (2000 population)
25,162 (2008 population)
-0.4% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Anson County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
The following are the stats on all counties in the Raleigh/Durham Combined Statistical Area (CSA)
Wake County
832 sq/mi of land
627,850 (2000 population)
866,410 (2008 population)
38.0% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Wake County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Johnston County
792 sq/mi of land
121,955 (2000 population)
163,428 (2008 population)
34.0% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Johnston County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Franklin County
492 sq/mi of land
47,260 (2000 population)
58,927 (2008 population)
24.7% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Franklin County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Durham county
290 sq/mi of land
223,314 (2000 population)
262,715 (2008 population)
17.6% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Durham County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Orange County
400 sq/mi of land
115,533 (2000 population)
126,532 (2008 population)
9.5% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Orange County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Chatham County
683 sq/mi of land
49,326 (2000 population)
63,077 (2008 population)
27.9% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Chatham County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Person County
392 sq/mi of land
35,623 (2000 population)
37,438 (2008 population)
5.1% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Person County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Harnett County
595 sq/mi of land
91,006 (2000 population)
112,030 (2008 population)
23.1% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
Harnett County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Here is how both metros compare.
Charlotte (MSA)
3,097 sq/mi of land
1,330,525 (2000 population)
1,701,799 (2008 population)
27.9% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
371,274 (numerical growth from 2000 to 2008)
Raleigh/Durham (CSA)
4,476 sq/mi of land
1,311,867 (2000 population)
1,690,557 (2008 population)
28.9% (growth rate from 2000 to 2008)
378,690 (numerical growth from 2000 to 2008)
The most interesting thing I've noticed about these VERY close numbers is the fact that Charlotte has done nearly the same amount of growth with almost 1,400 less sq/mi of land to work with.
Just the 576 sq/mi CSA county of Iredell alone (not included above in Charlotte's MSA stats) added over 30,000 people from 2000 to 2008.
Iredell County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Just imagine what Charlotte's "true numerical growth" would be if all CSA counties were included in the above comparison. I just basically compared the ENTIRE Triangle against only a fraction of Charlotte (and Charlotte still managed to keep up for the most part).
Again, I am NOT making ANY bold predictions here, but the recent past does show a pattern. Just saying...