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Old 01-12-2010, 02:02 PM
 
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The happy face article listed above doesn't list any real numbers so there is no way to tell what it means. if 1 house sold last month and 2 sold this month, that is a 100% increase in sales, but it is still only 2 house sold. The bubble head didn't give any details.

There is a disaster headed towards the economy and not just Charlotte, but Charlotte will certainly feel it. There is a lot of leverage here, more than most realize, that is related to overheated demand for property. The debt that is being absorbed by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve is frightening once one realizes the magnitude of it and what it means. My recommendation is that you have some contingency plan for it because when it pops, Charlotte is going down too.
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Old 01-12-2010, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Union County
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Originally Posted by Metallisteve View Post
I think all these positives outweigh our negatives and our net outcome will be for the better...not for a dooms day event. Of course, this is just my opinion...no better than some writer's at the Charlotte Disturber or any other media outlet. While I don't have fun charts and stats to back me up, I have a gut with feelings, which again, is just as good of a source for conversation than any other preditcion (if not better).
I'd take your explanation over that Observer article because it makes sense - as opposed to horrible "reporting" (I don't think they even qualify as journalism lol).

Seriously, though - Charlotte should be better positioned because it actually has reasonable home price options in nice, safe, family friendly areas... All the other metros cannot say the same. So it's important to qualify statements as that <250k market is what is going to keep Charlotte a great option for many people. The stability in Charlotte will hopefully launch off from that, but it really teeters on the 400, 500, 600k+ homes - I believe that is where the pending dooms day scenarios could start.
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Old 01-12-2010, 03:02 PM
 
Location: NE Charlotte, NC (University City)
1,894 posts, read 6,435,226 times
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Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
...the 400, 500, 600k+ homes - I believe that is where the pending dooms day scenarios could start.
Thankfully those homes make up the minority amount of the homes in Charlotte (which would limit the amount of doom). I don't have numbers, but I'd venture to say those are, at best, 25% of the homes here. Granted, when there are hundreds of thousands of homes, 25% is a lot of homes. But there's still a lot of home occupied, and for the most part, paying their mortgages!

Then again, I hear arguments from some folks that the people in that realm (owning the expensive McMansions--and at that, the one's who actually belong/deserve to be there) are sort of removed from the typical predictions and bad times. I don't necessarily buy it (completely). Just thought I'd throw that in the mix of chum here and see what the hounds do with it!
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Ayrsley
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Originally Posted by The Native 1 View Post
Agreed Ani. The mentality of I gotta have a new house kind of sickens me. It seems pretty wasteful with all of the houses on the market.
Well I disagree here. And that is as someone who bought a new house when we moved here in the Summer of 2009. We looked at a lot of areas and w=once we decided on a location - yes there were some existing homes on the market, but we still ha d alot of construction going on in Ayrsley as well. Given our options - we bought a new one so we could have it exactly the way we wanted it from the get go without having to deal with any remodeling. Saved a lot less $ and time for us in the long run.

Is that selfish? Possibly. But if someone is forking over a very significant amount of cash (likely the largest purchase of their life) I think they have every right to be.
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Ayrsley
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Originally Posted by Metallisteve View Post
I still hold my opinion that Charlotte was never bitten by the boom bug...at least not as badly as other cities. (I won't bore us all with repeated stories of Central Florida!) Because of this, the scale of folks being upside-down with loan-to-value ratios is much much smaller; dare I say recoverable. How someone is supposed to recover from being $100k or more upside down, I don't know. Recovering from a few ten thousand dollars upside down, now that's something that just simply waiting 5 years will cure.

None of this keeps folks from having to walk away from their home though...which I fully acknowledge is bound to happen in any city in the US, especially the metros like Charlotte. But I still contend that we have it relatively easy compared to other places. For as many stories that I can round up on these forums of folks having to ditch Charlotte for another location to get work, I see several times more people coming to Charlotte with work in hand to take their place...something that is not happening in a lot of other places.
I agree with you on this Metallisteve. And I'm sure I could bore everyone with repeated stories of DC and the northeast. Charlotte never had the kind of housing bubble that part of the country did (the exact same model of home I bought here in CLT in 2009 was being built and sold near my old neighborhood in MD for about 60%-70% more than the asking price here, as one example). Home prices were a lot lower in this area and they did not drastically overinflate in value as in other places in the country.

My guess is that if one looked up the stats, the dollar amount people may be upside down in their mortgage here is a lot lower than in many other places. Which does make it more likely to recover that value over time, or at least make the loss significantly less if one has to sell at a loss (assuming people can afford to keep their houses to begin with).
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Old 01-12-2010, 06:28 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Tober138 View Post
...Charlotte never had the kind of housing bubble..
I disagree. When they had not 1 but 3 50 story high rise luxury condo towers proposed to be built in the middle of parking lots in a city with absolutely no population pressures on land, there is a significant housing bubble. I will note that 1 got cancelled, one is partially built, and one remains an interesting wet dream of unsold units that are still being constructed with the hopes of return to some previous residential boom that will never return. This doesn't even cover the smaller disasters, such as the pad built for the Wachovia 40+ story condo tower that never got built, that dot the area in and around downtown.

The average and median house prices in Charlotte are still way above where they need to be for the incomes in this area.
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Old 01-12-2010, 06:45 PM
 
Location: Crown Town
2,742 posts, read 6,718,682 times
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Originally Posted by lumbollo View Post
I disagree. When they had not 1 but 3 50 story high rise luxury condo towers proposed to be built in the middle of parking lots in a city with absolutely no population pressures on land, there is a significant housing bubble. I will note that 1 got cancelled, one is partially built, and one remains an interesting wet dream of unsold units that are still being constructed with the hopes of return to some previous residential boom that will never return. This doesn't even cover the smaller disasters, such as the pad built for the Wachovia 40+ story condo tower that never got built, that dot the area in and around downtown.

The average and median house prices in Charlotte are still way above where they need to be for the incomes in this area.
Three 50 story condos? Ok, the Vue is under construction and almost finished. The EpiCenter was cancelled. Which one is partially built? Or if you're tyring to say the EpiCenter is partially built, then which one got cancelled?
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Old 01-12-2010, 06:57 PM
 
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There was a 3rd proposal for a 50 story tower on North Tryon approximately in and around where the frightening Renaissance Hotel is located.
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Old 01-12-2010, 07:00 PM
 
Location: Crown Town
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Originally Posted by lumbollo View Post
There was a 3rd proposal for a 50 story tower on North Tryon approximately in and around where the frightening Renaissance Hotel is located.
I have no idea what building you're talking about, but I doubt they took deposits for it. A true "cancelation" would be like the EpiCentre where deposits where taken but nothing ever got done. I recall the building Portman was going to do by the Westin, it was round 40 stories I think. But again, they never took deposits for that project.
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Old 01-12-2010, 07:24 PM
 
Location: NE Charlotte, NC (University City)
1,894 posts, read 6,435,226 times
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I'm failing to see how uptown high rises reflect the single family residential market...specifically how they indicate there was a housing boom. Sure, I see the overzealous-ness of developers trying to maybe spark a boom and force Charlotte to be like other cities which resulted in a saturation of condos uptown. But the vast majority of folks in Charlotte don't want to live in a condo. We want yards and the ability to grill out! The two markets are apples and oranges, in my opinion.
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