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Old 02-04-2010, 08:28 PM
 
4,010 posts, read 8,930,217 times
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I got a lot of rep points for the $3 cupcake comment that you are referring to. In other words, perception of the intent of other's actions is in the eyes of the beholder. If I mean to say something I will as I don't beat around the bush. BTW, while you say this, you have not actually addressed what I was talking about.

As for you other comments about my talking about good or common sense which you interestingly say you are not making, I always say let the results speak for themselves. If people had such good sense, then then we would not be having 10's of thousands of forecloseures in Charlotte, the economy destroyed by the irrational building taking down the largest banks in the world and the government being forced to bail it out, and people being laid off by the millions because of it. These are the results and it all came from people not acting with common sense. This isn't a debate IMO. As I say the results speak for themselves, and it is also interesting that while you fail to observe this, you have spent the time to "observe" my behavior in regards to what I have to post.

One more thing. My comment wasn't directed towards the people who bought into this mess. It was directed to those who might still avoid it. I can understand given what you said, why you might want to come at me like you did. As I said above. It is my opinion, I don't ask anyone to accept it. I will discuss it, but stick to what I post instead of making it about me.
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Old 02-05-2010, 08:25 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,783 posts, read 8,417,724 times
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As painful as it is to agree with lumbollo, there's credibility in the points here...

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, it's not the greatest buyer's market because the values are still propped up artificially. Besides the shadow inventory, buyers credit, etc... what also is contributing to this is things like the "If you take your larger metro salary (or close to it) to a place like Charlotte, you get a great deal!". This logic makes sense if you look at your personal financials - you have X dollars, you're spending Y, so you're left with Z. The issue is that just because Z is "better" it doesn't automagically mean that you got the best deal - it doesn't even mean you got a good deal. Because if you're unlucky enough to lose your job, you're forced into finding a job with a LOCAL salary - if you can even get a job! So, in the end you are at serious risk when you overpaid for that home. It's important to keep the proper perspective.

The average home prices compared to income are still way out of whack in many, many areas around Charlotte.
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Old 02-05-2010, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Ayrsley
4,714 posts, read 8,463,384 times
Reputation: 3814
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
As painful as it is to agree with lumbollo, there's credibility in the points here...
And I do not disagree with him entirely; he does make some valid points (and has proven himself a master of semantics to boot). Where I diverge from his line of reasoning is that I simply do not agree with some of the blanket statements that he tends to make: that all new communities will become a financial apocolypse...that anyone buying a home at current prices is somehow lacking in sense, etc. It depends on a lot of situational factors related to a particular buyer, community, etc. What may be the best / smartest / most responsible decision for one person, may not be the best decision for someone else. There is no one, absolute, infallable answer / opinion / course of action that holds true for everyone with regards to this topic.

Each potential home buyer (or seller for that matter) needs to do their homework, show some due dilligence in assessing their particular situation, and come up with an educated decision that is in their best interest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
... what also is contributing to this is things like the "If you take your larger metro salary (or close to it) to a place like Charlotte, you get a great deal!". This logic makes sense if you look at your personal financials - you have X dollars, you're spending Y, so you're left with Z. The issue is that just because Z is "better" it doesn't automagically mean that you got the best deal - it doesn't even mean you got a good deal.
I understand your point and, again, I would say that the "sense" behind such a choice depends on the individuals involved. In our case, we had the flexibility to move to pretty much anywhere in the country; we were not tied to the Baltimore / DC area. We ended up purchasing a house here in CLT well within our range of affordability and that was nowhere near the maximum amount we could afford / get a loan approval for. A similar type of home "back there" would have run us at least 50% more than we paid here. The cost of housing here, coupled with the lower cost of living, allowed us to purchase a home at what was (for us) a modest price, and still be able to save / invest a good portion of our income.

We also wanted to own a house and did not want to rent - but that was our personal preference based on what we wanted, and we were fortunate enough to be in a position to have that as an option. Ok, maybe the price of our home here in CLT drops 10%, 15%, 20% over the next 5 years. Given the sale price of our house, that net loss would be less than what we would have paid out in rent over the same period of time. And a lot less than the same percentage drop on a house in DC. This was a "good deal" for us because of our individual situation. For another couple wih different circumstances, it may not have been the best option.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Because if you're unlucky enough to lose your job, you're forced into finding a job with a LOCAL salary - if you can even get a job! So, in the end you are at serious risk when you overpaid for that home. It's important to keep the proper perspective.
Again - that depends on the person. When we moved here, I was working for a company headquartered in NYC. I left that company last year and now work for a company with dual HQs in Raleigh and Austin. Heck, in my line of work, finding a job wih a "local" salary is pretty much close to impossible because, in my industry, there are not really any jobs / companies here to begin with. But I work in an industry where a large part of the workforce does not report to a physical office, so that's not an issue in my case; I can take a job with a company headquartered anywhere in the States and still live here in Charlotte. But, again, that is my personal situation (and trust me, I feel quite fortunate in that regard), which is not necessarily the same as some one else's.

Ok - this is all a bit long-winded. But my point is that there are no absolutes here. Different people with different situations have different options, and what might be the best decision for one person may very well not be the smartest course of action for someone else.
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Old 02-05-2010, 12:25 PM
 
Location: Up above the world so high!
45,270 posts, read 88,380,615 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tober138 View Post
Ok - this is all a bit long-winded. But my point is that there are no absolutes here. Different people with different situations have different options, and what might be the best decision for one person may very well not be the smartest course of action for someone else.


Enough said, good job
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:19 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,783 posts, read 8,417,724 times
Reputation: 4818
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tober138 View Post
Ok - this is all a bit long-winded. But my point is that there are no absolutes here. Different people with different situations have different options, and what might be the best decision for one person may very well not be the smartest course of action for someone else.
Second loves' comment and rep given...

I'm actually similar to your position with my job. It's a very lucky position to be in, but as you can see from my posts I'm constantly reminding myself to be conservative. I was burned in the past - so just suffice to say that it's more credibility to your statement that there are no absolutes.

In the end, it's easier to win a semantics war as a doom-n-gloomer then a rosey glasses wearer.
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:33 PM
 
3,774 posts, read 6,995,987 times
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As far as your quote about his comments avoiding the question posted before the observation that addressed my understanding of the quoted comment, the first response about the quoted comment was as follows...

Quote:
My comments about the question were based on your perception about the quote. Which is clear, evidently.
That should clear it up.
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Old 02-05-2010, 03:41 PM
 
7,107 posts, read 9,707,399 times
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Yep, about as clear as mud. :>
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Old 02-05-2010, 05:15 PM
 
4,010 posts, read 8,930,217 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tober138 View Post
.......
.....
Ok - this is all a bit long-winded. But my point is that there are no absolutes here. Different people with different situations have different options, and what might be the best decision for one person may very well not be the smartest course of action for someone else.
I don't think anyone has said otherwise and of course people should do this. The point is they haven't been due to unreasonable expectations they have for housing, or bad decisions made for housing and which they now seek to rationalize if they haven't given up.

There are plenty of absolutes, I've listed them above in regards to the OP.
  • Household income has been failling for years
  • House prices have been quickly rising for years
  • Housing absolutely can't rise in price while people's incomes are falling.
  • Millions of people are being put out of work
  • 1/4 of the people with mortgages have mortgages that are underwater.
  • There are lots of housing projects in Charlotte that have simply stopped dead because there are no buyers for them.
  • Both presidents over the last two years have plainly stated the mortgage excesses had gotten so bad, they threatened to destroy the economy.
  • There are 10s of 1000s of foreclosures in Charlotte.
  • Prices are dropping in Charlotte.
I could go on, with these absolutes. They are not debatable, they are facts, it isn't doom and gloom and anything else emotional to examine where we are. As stated in the original paragraph of this particular post, people need to do what is good for them and if they are going to purchase a house, they need to do this kind of analysis to determine if they can take the risk. That risk is the very high probability that they are going to ruin themselves for a very long time financially if they buy into a place at this time unless they do their homework.

From this, I have concluded that anyone buying into a new development, buying a house that was built in the last 5 -10 years, a starter home development or one of the endless number of HGTV style homes in the vast number of subdivisions surrounding Charlotte are exposing themselves to a huge loss. This is why is said to stick to older more established neighborhoods in Charlotte where the prices were not run up by all the irrational behavior.

---------------------

This is my opinion and anyone reading this doesn't have to accept it, agree with it or even like it. I really don't mind. But if you want to challenge it, please challenge what was posted.
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Old 02-05-2010, 09:16 PM
 
3,774 posts, read 6,995,987 times
Reputation: 4402
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumbollo View Post
I don't think anyone has said otherwise and of course people should do this. The point is they haven't been due to unreasonable expectations they have for housing, or bad decisions made for housing and which they now seek to rationalize if they haven't given up.

There are plenty of absolutes, I've listed them above in regards to the OP.
  • 1. Household income has been failling for years
  • 2. House prices have been quickly rising for years
  • 3. Housing absolutely can't rise in price while people's incomes are falling.
  • 4. Millions of people are being put out of work
  • 5. 1/4 of the people with mortgages have mortgages that are underwater. I can say that with 100% confidence though that 1/4 of MY mortgages aren't underwater!
  • 6. There are lots of housing projects in Charlotte that have simply stopped dead because there are no buyers for them.
  • 7. Both presidents over the last two years have plainly stated the mortgage excesses had gotten so bad, they threatened to destroy the economy.
  • 8. There are 10s of 1000s of foreclosures in Charlotte.
  • 9. Prices are dropping in Charlotte.
I could go on, with these absolutes. They are not debatable, they are facts, it isn't doom and gloom and anything else emotional to examine where we are. As stated in the original paragraph of this particular post, people need to do what is good for them and if they are going to purchase a house, they need to do this kind of analysis to determine if they can take the risk. That risk is the very high probability that they are going to ruin themselves for a very long time financially if they buy into a place at this time unless they do their homework.

From this, I have concluded that anyone buying into a new development, buying a house that was built in the last 5 -10 years, a starter home development or one of the endless number of HGTV style homes in the vast number of subdivisions surrounding Charlotte are exposing themselves to a huge loss. This is why is said to stick to older more established neighborhoods in Charlotte where the prices were not run up by all the irrational behavior.

---------------------

This is my opinion and anyone reading this doesn't have to accept it, agree with it or even like it. I really don't mind. But if you want to challenge it, please challenge what was posted.


Lumbollo,

I agree with a great many things you have posted in this topic. but from what I've seen some of your absolutes may well be debatable. At least from what I've seen.

1. Household income has not dropped for even 24 consecutive months has it?

http://dpb.cornell.edu/documents/1000273.pdf

2. Quickly? Maybe...

3. agreed, but is #1 right?

4. 8.4 million out of work since 2007... no real argument there.

5. I can't refute your claim here, but I also can't find any data to back it up.

6. Really? Every single subdivision I know about with single family lots is building at least on a limited basis.

7. i don't have much confidence in the judgement in the opinion of either of the last two presidents. they may be right... but they both still suck.

8. I haven't seen any data that supports those figures. I have seen numbers ranging from 3,800 to 5,500... (about double the number found in Raleigh).

9. Sure, on the whole. But people who bought at the right price point are doing just fine. The high-end homes and new construction are dragging averages down. Fact is that sub 200K houses close to uptown are doing quite well with evaluations. Especially considering the current muck.

My point, however, isn't that I disagree with you. Because I agree with a lot of the points you make. But painting such broad-brush "absolutes that aren't" is very condescending and, uh, well false.

Last edited by Native_Son; 02-05-2010 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 02-06-2010, 08:58 AM
 
4,010 posts, read 8,930,217 times
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I earlier said that when adjusted for the worth of the $ household income has dropped, it's easy to get this from the government, household income has been falling. I neglected to post it above. It's dropped something like 12% since 2000 whereas housing prices rose 87%. I neglected to explain this above. Of course this doesn't even count the poeple who are no longer working because their jobs disappeared.

All in all it is a really bad mess.
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