Suburbia, the next slum? (Chicago, Naperville: low income, section 8, apartments)

[oakparkdude]

An article in the March 2008 Atlantic Monthly The Next Slum? has been discussed on several other sub-forums, and I thought I'd raise the issue here. Its only three pages, take a quick look.

The article raises many interesting points which have been discussed in some fashion already. To summarize, the article states that due to long term demographic and economic structural changes, Americans will choose more urban neighborhoods in the future, resulting in the relative economic decline of exurbia. Importantly, the article does not claim that all suburbia will decline, and in fact argues that urban suburbs with good rail transit will prosper.

I'd like to think the author is correct, as I live in an inner, urbanized suburb with excellent rail transit. Regarding Chicagoland as a whole, assuming you believe the argument, we should do better than sunbelt metros due to our relatively transit-rich infrastructure.

I suppose time (20-30 years) will tell.

[via chicago]

I've been preaching these same words for a long time. Most major US metropolitan cities will probably wind up looking like their European counterparts..a wealthy core, and rings spreading outward with decreasing levels of prosperity. Everything has a pendulum, and eventually this trend will begin to swing back in the other direction (at least with Chicago, its well underway).

Not to mention, modern construction is nowhere near the level of its predecessors (which the article mentions). An 80 year old solid brick Chicago bungalow will be around for another 100 years. The cheap tract homes getting throw up in cornfields? I know people who have owned homes similar to those for under 10 years and already have issues.

The only long term solution to a dense, metropolitan region is readily accessible public transportation. Those cities which have it will be fine. Those that dont will fade away.

[prairiestate]

In general, I would agree with this sentiment, but with some caveats. First, there are suburbs, even in hallowed DuPage County, that I could certainly see turning into slums. I'm not going to name any names, because it would be futile to get into a debate about specific towns. However, it's hard to see places like Naperville or Wheaton going this route. They're quite affluent, they have walkable cores, and train service to the city. So, if select towns that are rather far flung maintain their prosperity, it may have a stabilizing effect on surrounding areas. On the other hand, there are big cities elsewhere with few urban style communities farther out, and little or no public transportation. These may be more likely to go downhill.

[Chinolala]

If low cost means slums, then yes, the suburbs will become the next slums and the cities will become more and more expensive to live in, weeding out lots of low income based crime. It's happening slowly already. Some suburbs will always be "nice", whereas others will become down trodden.

[Steve-o]

There are 4-5 million people here in the burbs, who mainly moved here because they didnt like urban living. I dont see them wanting to move back anytime soon, even if urban areas become ultra-affordable. Too many people just dislike urban living....

[gardener34]

I think the fact that they are destroying public housing in the city and moving it out to the collar burbs has more to do with anything.

[via chicago]

Originally Posted by gardener34

I think the fact that they are destroying public housing in the city and moving it out to the collar burbs has more to do with anything.

Well, its definitely a factor. But it more a chicken/egg argument. The reason they are being relocated is because city living has become desirable again (and the land can now go for higher values), which meshes with the original argument.

Also, they are not rebuilding new projects in the burbs as you seem to suggest. The displaced residents will seek section 8 housing, but that has always been there.

[sbd78]

I don't see suburbia overall becoming a slum. Some suburbs may, but that is nothing new. Look at many of the now less than desirable South burbs that used to be safe middle class areas. I have lived in the city AND the suburbs. The lifestyles are completely different. The city was perfect for me when I was renting apartments with friends in the popular neighborhoods, single, and enjoying the bustling nightlife. Once I was married with a child, my priorities were different, I wanted to own a home with a yard. Not to mention, the city (and the desirable inner ring burbs, for that matter) are becoming very expensive and a place for the rich. Not everyone can afford them and I for one, am not willing to be an urban pioneer in a less than desirable neighborhood. And a lot of people just don't like the city. That lifestyle isn't for everyone. When I lived in the city, my Dad HATED coming to visit me because he couldn't stand the city, the congestion, and the lack of parking. Also, there are MANY jobs in the burbs as well. I don't see all the people who work in the burbs moving to the city and making a horrible reverse commute. Chicagoland has too many different types of people with too many different circumstances and priorties for everyone to suddenly decide to pick up and move back to the city, leaving the burbs a slum for the underprivledged. Not to mention, the city would become very over-crowded if that happened! I do agree though, that I wish the burbs had better public transportation options.

[via chicago]

Originally Posted by sbd78

I don't see suburbia overall becoming a slum. Some suburbs may, but that is nothing new. Look at many of the now less than desirable South burbs that used to be safe middle class areas. I have lived in the city AND the suburbs. The lifestyles are completely different. The city was perfect for me when I was renting apartments with friends in the popular neighborhoods, single, and enjoying the bustling nightlife. Once I was married with a child, my priorities were different, I wanted to own a home with a yard. Not to mention, the city (and the desirable inner ring burbs, for that matter) are becoming very expensive and a place for the rich. Not everyone can afford them and I for one, am not willing to be an urban pioneer in a less than desirable neighborhood. And a lot of people just don't like the city. That lifestyle isn't for everyone. When I lived in the city, my Dad HATED coming to visit me because he couldn't stand the city, the congestion, and the lack of parking. Also, there are MANY jobs in the burbs as well. I don't see all the people who work in the burbs moving to the city and making a horrible reverse commute. Chicagoland has too many different types of people with too many different circumstances and priorties for everyone to suddenly decide to pick up and move back to the city, leaving the burbs a slum for the underprivledged. Not to mention, the city would become very over-crowded if that happened! I do agree though, that I wish the burbs had better public transportation options.

In regards to overcrowding, Chicago's population is actually fairly low now in historical terms. Chicago used to be over 3.6 million...now its under 3. Vast swaths of the west and south sides suffered huge population losses in the last half century, which are only now beginning to recover.

And I think the article actually agreed with the points you are making. I.e. not all suburbs will decline, and there will always be people who prefer that lifestyle. But I do think we will see a large shift back shortly to compact urban living (especially among younger people), and the suburbs will suffer for it. As more people move back, the schools will gradually improve as property values rise and the poor gets displaced. Suddenly, the suburbs lose their one advantage for young families: superior schools. Now true, you will never have the open space of a suburban tract home, but thats what parks are for,

[mdz]

I do sorta agree it's slightly different here. Although the housing crisis is affecting people in many places, what we've got going on here (thus far) is much different than say what's happening in places like CA/NV. Places where new subdivisions went up and there are currently 10% owner occupied homes and 4-5 foreclosures on every block in the exurbs, those are the places that are going to turn into slums before too long (if they haven't already).