Chicago Suburbs Housing Market on the up and up? (Elgin: houses, neighborhood)

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by JJski

The definition of younger family has changed... In DTLG our neighbors are mostly couples 35-45 (which i consider young still) with young kids... 20year olds are mostly waiting to start families... Smart ones focusing on career and having extended fun in big city. Older is the trend for family life... Retired folkz leave as soon as they can - taxes suck...

Look at cd stats - median age in lg is 39...

These new young families have more income to play with therefore the business bar/caliber is raising in these expensive towns... They come to burbs expecting same level now as what they had in big city in their 20s. IMO this landscape transformation is a relatively recent but phenomenon but has been a good thing...

My 2 centz.

Agree with this. In my visits to several suburban downtowns in the past year, I'm seeing a lot of adults age 35-50 and kids walking around.


I would guess some suburban downtown condos are more popular with the downsizing crowd, but single family homes within a mile of a downtown are probably more popular among families with kids.


As most of these downtowns are near a Metra station, those in the 35-45 range who work in the Loop may find walking to the Metra more desirable than the retired population silvertone is suggesting.

[damba]

Originally Posted by silvertonesx24

Most suburbs with actual "walkability" are as expensive as city property.

Yes they are, since they offer similar amenities but with an added benefit of good schools

I don't see any young families in these, I see old retired people who sold their house to downsize. Coffee shops.. more like upscale knick knack stores and hair salons.

Where else have you been looking?

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by mwj119

My overarching recommendation is to look at the trends from the pre-economic downturn to now. That ~12 year window should show the real growth and progression in a given community/area.

I got knocked around a bit for this stance, but I think it's important: Much of the Chicagoland suburbs, despite the substantial growth in the last five years, are yet to exceed the values pre-recession. That's not the case in many of the markets in the US, and certainly not the case in high growth areas. So, while Chicagoland's respective housing values have made strides in recent years, indicators would suggest it's merely a reflection of the healthy market, and not the growth or desirability of the metro. What I would say is, Chicago's not going to completely collapse despite what the doomsdayers would lead you to believe. It's diverse enough in it's private sector to keep on keeping on. There are still plenty of areas that would offer the opportunity to build equity through value increase.

Someone said it best.. Location, location, location.

New prospective home buyers don't want to live in cookie cutter homes on large lots connected to neighboring communities only via highway. They want some sense of urbanality- walkability, train access, a little downtown with coffee shops, boutiques etc. So, with the exception of a few outer ring suburbs, I'd stay close to the city. Because you mentioned your desire to live west, La Grange is a good bet. Naperville as an example, to me, is an anomaly. It offers a city living in an outer ring suburb. That said, its popularity will diminish; If not now, sometime next decade. It will then become a newer, flashier Arlington Heights with less connectivity. Said differently, Naperville is the 2000s version of Arlington Heights in the 1970s. AH is still a very nice city, but it's not somewhere i'd look to invest. It's fairly stagnant, handcuffed by proximity to the city and overgrowth in it's prime.

Other towns I'd consider outside of LG would be Elmhurst, and Western Springs.

Building on my initial point:
Chicago's 2017 housing market will be weakest in nation, group says - Chicago Tribune

[silvertonesx24]

Originally Posted by damba

Yes they are, since they offer similar amenities but with an added benefit of good schools

Where else have you been looking?

I work in downtown Arlington Heights, and have been to many Metra downtowns. None of them have stood out to me as "here's where all the young families with kids are moving". At least along the NW line, there are city-priced condos within the walkable area, very pricey new construction, and old small houses.

I know the trend of the big brick box on a small lot has come to pass but I don't see much more lasting desirability in a 1200sqft post-war house for $350k.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by silvertonesx24

I know the trend of the big brick box on a small lot has come to pass but I don't see much more lasting desirability in a 1200sqft post-war house for $350k.

The desirability of a 1200sqft house in an inner ring suburb will continue to increase in every major market in the US with no end in sight. This generation wants what our grandparents had. I suspect that this generation's kids will want what our parents had. It's the generational 'grass is always greener' phenomena perpetuated by popular desires. There's a term for this..

On one hand, as noted in the article I posted, it's not a great situation in Chicago. The slowest moving housing market of the top 100 metros is a harsh reality. I've read posts about the positive steps taken and budgetary corrections, but I've read more that point to the fact that there's no feasible way to correct the pension debacle. That seems to be the greatest risk to Chicago, more so than a slow private sector, or the crime, or the weather. With corporate, income, and property taxes the way that they are, it's going to be nearly impossible to keep the existing population, and with less population comes less demand, then comes a decrease in values. To a small degree, we're seeing that now. I suspect that this trend will come to a head, and it will get worse before it gets better.

On the other hand, as someone who is no longer in the Chicagoland, where else is a white collar family going to move to maintain the amenities of which they've grown so accustom? Chi is really only rivaled by a select few metros, none of which are cheaper. I've seen it first hand. Sure, aggregated property tax rates are higher in IL than almost any other state. And income taxes continue to grow. But neither make up the delta in COL vs. NYC/Bos/LA/SF/DC. So, while I understand that it may seem ridiculous to some, 1200 sqft in an inner ring suburb for $350k would sound quite appetizing to prospective buyers in the major metros of Chicago's tier. I'd give my right arm for a property like that, in a town like LG, within the same close proximity to Boston.

I do think the immediate term will be filled with continued private sector stagnation, loss of population, and continued public sector woes. Eventually, I think we see a revitalized Chicago. People will see the lower COL, and realize that the coasts can only offer so much. Chicago is just too big, too popular, too powerful to totally fail, but not without some painful years ahead.

To come full circle, I got nervous to purchase in Illinois. And in my industry, I had more opportunity in another area of the country, so I didn't have to gamble. But, because Chicago will never collapse, I do think there are locations (..location, location) that won't put you under water, regardless of the economic situation.

[damba]

Originally Posted by silvertonesx24

I work in downtown Arlington Heights, and have been to many Metra downtowns. None of them have stood out to me as "here's where all the young families with kids are moving". At least along the NW line, there are city-priced condos within the walkable area, very pricey new construction, and old small houses.

I know the trend of the big brick box on a small lot has come to pass but I don't see much more lasting desirability in a 1200sqft post-war house for $350k.

I completely understand that there would be compromises to make based on budget limitations.

Slightly over 400 would get you into a 2000sf home near Mt Prospect metra, possibly with updates. Schools there are very good.
Keep in mind the fact you do not necessarily see young families when you happen to visit doesn’t mean they are not there. Visit a suburban park to get a better vibe as such.
Examples:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...6/3448182_zpid

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...6/3447771_zpid

[silvertonesx24]

Well, I admit I don't know the exact demographics of the suburban core downtowns, but I just don't see it in the retail offerings. The only coffee shop in DT Arlington Heights is a small Starbucks.

But that's just my perspective.

[JJski]

Silver, next time in Dtlg. Go to this coffee shop instead: owl and lark -> we have a starbucks but OL is more interesting and highlights the kool factor in town.

[Kmanshouse]

Originally Posted by mwj119

The desirability of a 1200sqft house in an inner ring suburb will continue to increase in every major market in the US with no end in sight. This generation wants what our grandparents had. I suspect that this generation's kids will want what our parents had. It's the generational 'grass is always greener' phenomena perpetuated by popular desires. There's a term for this..

On one hand, as noted in the article I posted, it's not a great situation in Chicago. The slowest moving housing market of the top 100 metros is a harsh reality. I've read posts about the positive steps taken and budgetary corrections, but I've read more that point to the fact that there's no feasible way to correct the pension debacle. That seems to be the greatest risk to Chicago, more so than a slow private sector, or the crime, or the weather. With corporate, income, and property taxes the way that they are, it's going to be nearly impossible to keep the existing population, and with less population comes less demand, then comes a decrease in values. To a small degree, we're seeing that now. I suspect that this trend will come to a head, and it will get worse before it gets better.

On the other hand, as someone who is no longer in the Chicagoland, where else is a white collar family going to move to maintain the amenities of which they've grown so accustom? Chi is really only rivaled by a select few metros, none of which are cheaper. I've seen it first hand. Sure, aggregated property tax rates are higher in IL than almost any other state. And income taxes continue to grow. But neither make up the delta in COL vs. NYC/Bos/LA/SF/DC. So, while I understand that it may seem ridiculous to some, 1200 sqft in an inner ring suburb for $350k would sound quite appetizing to prospective buyers in the major metros of Chicago's tier. I'd give my right arm for a property like that, in a town like LG, within the same close proximity to Boston.

I do think the immediate term will be filled with continued private sector stagnation, loss of population, and continued public sector woes. Eventually, I think we see a revitalized Chicago. People will see the lower COL, and realize that the coasts can only offer so much. Chicago is just too big, too popular, too powerful to totally fail, but not without some painful years ahead.

To come full circle, I got nervous to purchase in Illinois. And in my industry, I had more opportunity in another area of the country, so I didn't have to gamble. But, because Chicago will never collapse, I do think there are locations (..location, location) that won't put you under water, regardless of the economic situation.

Excellent post, agree with all of it.

We live in Naperville, not walkable to downtown, but closer to D-Nap than most of the population (7-8 minute drive, 2-2.5 miles, or a $6 Uber ride on a Friday night).

We are selling in 2019 and have no clue how the prices are going to pan out. I think probably pretty level to now, as there are forces going in both directions on price. House is built around 1980, and it will be partially updated, more than some, less than others. Huge, culdesac lot. D204 schools.

We've debated whether we should shell out the $15-20K in repairs needed to get the best price possible, or instead just sell it as is and get what we can. We have friends that are realtors that should know the trends on what people want.

Generally, I agree with the above poster on Chicago and its burbs. We will be moving to the city and renting.

[damba]

Originally Posted by silvertonesx24

Well, I admit I don't know the exact demographics of the suburban core downtowns, but I just don't see it in the retail offerings. The only coffee shop in DT Arlington Heights is a small Starbucks.

But that's just my perspective.

Aren’t there a couple of bakeries a few blocks from the metra in AH?