Elmwood Park or River Grove?? (Cicero, Schaumburg: renters, employment, purchasing)

[Peer79]

Originally Posted by chet everett

I know Horwaths well, ate at the EP location many many times. The business was not just rumored to have "mod ties" but has figured in dozens of criminal investigations of organized crime.

When the real estate market was hot and the owners sold, it was largely becuase they did the economic analysis and realized the return on their type business in their location was not going to increase.

The boredom factor or desire to try and parlay their once robust following into a VERY different market in Geneva was not well thought out. Moving that far away they were not a respected long time business merely relocating BUT a fragile new business that faced more challenges than they imagined...

I have known several families that owned "classic" Chicago region restaurants in eastern DuPage -- Andy's Steakhouse, Sharko's, The Flame and others. The shifts in their client base and their OWN FAILURE TO MANAGE THEIR BUSINESS IN RESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES is what was their undoing. Right now you could go into an of number of LUEY restaurants and the menu is not tat different than what those places served. The difference is Melman delivers a total experience that clicks with his customers AT HIS TARGET PRICE POINT!!
When those other places closed the overall economic climate was only a tiny part -- their failure to adapt was a much bigger factor.

The "total experience" for home buyers at the price point of EP or RG is NOT GOOD -- from the layout of the towns, the transportation limitations, the housing options the schools, the isolation of the government leaders and the failure to acknowledge shifts in demographics / workforce I see too many sings that things will not move in a positive direction.

I know there are those who disgree with me, but I would ask even those to ask some simple questions -- have things in other towns be more or less stable in price, have market times been longer, has investor activity been weaker or stronger, have rental rates been solid?

I do think that many of these factors are outside the control of political leaders or current residents. My fear is that in trying to over use the controls they do have (like taxes and TIF based redevelopment efforts) the potential to push things in a direction that makes improvement even harder increases...

I don't know how bad things wil get in these towns but I have seen MANY towns over the years be "harder hit" or even move in directions opposite their neighbors when economic activity increases precisely because of the perverse lags built into political / governmental action vs that of private investors. From Elgin and Joilet and Bolingbrook to Cicero there're lots of models of how NOT to proceed...

I have a difficult time trying to comprehend the main point of your posts...

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Being adjacent to a desirable suburb is not the same as being IN IT.

Your point was to claim that traveling from Oak Park is so much faster to get Oak Brook or downtown and I pointed out that Galewood and Elmwood Park are right next to Oak Park in location.

And this has nothing to do with "desirable."

[chet everett]

This is not that hard to comprehend: when someone who needs to use the Ike or the El (blue or green lines) or UP-W metra line and Oak Park is suggested the assumption is that a location NEAR the transportation option would be chosen thereby avoiding the hassle of clogged surface streets which are the worst part of traveling through Oak Park. Since Elmwood Park and Galewood are going to require traversing a lot more of those surface streets and poorly thought out transit options to get to any current employment center the limitations on where one can get to is greater...

If Oak Park to somehow pull off a political coup and expand even bigger than it is and included the undesirable schools and more limited transportation options of Elmwood Park or other area then the admonition would be equally simple -- "well you could live in 'expanded Oak Park', but any cost savings associated with the crummy school and more limited transportation options of the areas that were once EP are unlikely to be offset by the negatives..."

I also don't see what is so hard to understand about saying "EP and RG are places that I do not see 'turning around' but instead as likely to decline even as towns like Oak Park seem capable of maintaining some appeal, just as a good restaurant operation like Wildfire packs people in with a menu like Sharko, The Flame, Andys or Horwaths have all collapsed / been shutdown becuase peole don't just buy a NY Strip or Shrimp DeJonge but the WHOLE EXPERINCE and towns like EP or RG don't deliver on that..."

[Peer79]

Your argument that EP or RG suffers greatly due to a lack of transportation or undesirable location is invalid:

1) Based on personal experience, the Metra ride from EP to downtown is about 25 mintues. Taking the Metra westbound all the way to end of the line in Elgin is about 45 minutes.
2) Based on personal experience, the auto commute to the 290 is 15-20 minutes. Again, based on personal experience, the auto commute to the 90 is 15-20 minutes (depending on time of day, traffic, etc.). This is not a prohibitively lengthy commute.
3) Based on mapquest data, the commute to Oak Brook is 27-29 minutes. The commute time to Rosemont is 14-17 minutes. The commute time to Schaumburg is 35-37 minutes. Again, this is not such a lengthy commute that workers would be dissuaded from traveling from EP.

Elmwood Park is fully integrated into the broad Chicago Metro area (specifically northside) and is ideally situated for reasonable access to Chicago and suburban employment centers. It is not some rural town 50 miles from the edge of suburbia. Nor does it suffer from political isolation, as the mayor of EP, Pete Silvestri, is also a Cook County Commisioner. Silvestri is able to wield considerable influence in local government beyond the scope of EP.

In regards to demographics, Elmwood Park has consistently been a solid middle class area. It remains a solid, middle class area. It remains a majority white neighborhood. It has recently seen an increase in the Hispanic population, however, the entire nation has seen an increase in Hispanic population. I am not sure what about the demographic data is a harbinger of impending decline. The area has been middle class and remains middle class.

In regards to the housing, EP has fairly attractive housing stock consisting of primarily (by my estimate 85%) masonry construction. There is still impressive new construction occuring, with some the bungalows being rehabbed into 4,000 square foot colonials. EP was affected by the recent troubles in the real estate sector, much like the entire Chicago area. It is not substantially worse off than other comparable locales. Another factor to consider, are the adjacent Chicago neighborhoods of Belmont Heights, Galewood, and Montclare, which are a favorite of City workers. This also keeps the populations of these adjoining neighborhoods stable and middle class.

Although off topic, I woud caution residents of posh Dupage and Lake county locales not to automatically look down upon denizens of Elmwood Park. Read the book "The Millionaire next Door." Although their home and general appearance may be blue collar, I know a few Elmwood Park residents who are comfortably millionaires many times over. I also know people with fancy houses and cars in more expensive towns who are heavily leveraged and struggling to maintain the facade.

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Since Elmwood Park and Galewood are going to require traversing a lot more of those surface streets and poorly thought out transit options to get to any current employment center the limitations on where one can get to is greater...

Errrm Elmwood Park has a Metra stop and so does River Grove.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by tonythetuna

Errrm Elmwood Park has a Metra stop and so does River Grove.

Milwaukee District / West (MD-W) Schedule

It's bizarre. The things that make these towns more affordable are pretty easy to spot -- like I said, the "big savings compared to Oak Park" (or LaGrange or whatever...) are glaringly obvious, it's not these are some "undiscovered jewels" they are towns that are just not as desirable as those that are better. That's what makes people willing to spend more to live in other towns...

I go back to the restuarant analogy -- it's not like you couldn't get a nice strong drink and a big steak at the places that are gone, it's just that instead of some water stained dropped ceiling & indifferent waitress with a voice that sounded like she inhale entire cartoons of cigarettes hourly you get some lighting that actually makes human beings look good and a waiter that you feel good about tipping...

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Yes, and MD-W service is limited...

20 plus trains M-F in each direction is limited?

[Peer79]

Originally Posted by tonythetuna

20 plus trains M-F in each direction is limited?

During rush hour there is train every 1/2 hour, while there is an hourly train otherwise. The service is adequate, my father has been doing it for 30+ years.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by Peer79

During rush hour there is train every 1/2 hour, while there is an hourly train otherwise. The service is adequate, my father has been doing it for 30+ years.

That is nice. Adequate is what some people consider the discount of these areas in relation to other too. The high number of distressed sales spooks of others. I have owned rental property in areas that have performed pretty well and in areas that are 'adequate' and I prefer a higher potential for return over adequate current cash flow. I suppose there are investors with different philosophies...

Similarly I taught in schools that were adequate to the parents that sent their kids there, I preferred to send my own kids to superior schools. Personal choice is a wonderful thing.

I prefer exceptional train service to adequate. I guess that makes me a public transit elitist. I wonder if I can get a badge that says that for my messenger bag. It might be a money maker.

[Peer79]

Originally Posted by chet everett

That is nice. Adequate is what some people consider the discount of these areas in relation to other too. The high number of distressed sales spooks of others. I have owned rental property in areas that have performed pretty well and in areas that are 'adequate' and I prefer a higher potential for return over adequate current cash flow. I suppose there are investors with different philosophies...

Similarly I taught in schools that were adequate to the parents that sent their kids there, I preferred to send my own kids to superior schools. Personal choice is a wonderful thing.

I prefer exceptional train service to adequate. I guess that makes me a public transit elitist. I wonder if I can get a badge that says that for my messenger bag. It might be a money maker.

Well, where would one find exceptional train service as opposed to the merely adequate train service found in Elmwood Park? In addition, what qualities differentiate an exceptional Metra rail line from a mere adequate one? How much benefit can a commuter derive from an 'exceptional' Metra line as opposed to a merely 'adequate' line?

It might be worthwhile to point out that the simply adequate Metra line which passes through Elmwood Park also provides service to some of your more desirable locales such as Itasca, Medinah, and Schaumburg. Are the purported deficiencies of this rail line a major factor in the desirability of those neighborhoods, or lack thereof? Are these towns severely hindered by this 'adequate' rail line in the same manner as EP?

On another note, I find your insights on investment property interesting. I suppose there are investors with different philosophies. However, if I infer your philosophy correctly, then your investing strategy is relatively unique. Most investors prefer an 'adequate', or even low income area for the purchase of investment property. However, you seem to prefer more high-priced areas for the purchase of property. This usually does not provide a higher potential for return, in fact it provides a higher cost which is usually not offset by commensurately increased cash flows.

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.