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Old 02-10-2022, 05:56 PM
Status: "I’m feeling lucky today..." (set 24 days ago)
 
Location: Lincolnshire
120 posts, read 163,622 times
Reputation: 130

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I was just browsing through some US Census date, and most of the trends are what I expected. Pretty much every town (yes, even the historically lily white North Shore suburbs) have seen major surges in their minority populations. But then, when browsing through southwest suburban data, I came across Manhattan. And as of the 2020 Census, it was around 98% white (95% white non-Hispanic). In 2022, these numbers in suburban Chicago stand out like a sore thumb, especially given Manhattan’s proximity to majority minority towns like Joliet and Monee.
I did some research, and I found that Manhattan seems to be a destination for white flight in the south suburbs. But how does a town without much wealth or amenities, or an Uber exclusive school district, remain so overwhelmingly white? Does anyone have any theories?

Last edited by Pseudonym18123; 02-10-2022 at 06:09 PM..

 
Old 02-11-2022, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,386,985 times
Reputation: 3982
Interesting. It only has 8,200 people for one thing, and that is mostly the result of massive subdivision development during the 2000s and 2010s. In 2000, its population was a miniscule 3,300. So there hasn't been time or room for much demograpic turnover I'd imagine.

And while you say it's right by Joliet, it's actually closer to New Lenox, which is 96% white, and Frankfort, which is 94% white. So it really doesn't stand out like a sore thumb for its region.

Nor is Joliet itself minority-majority. It is 67% white, and 28% Hispanic and only 15% African-American. Hispanics in the Chicagoland area are still largely working class, so communities which are somewhat remote and isolated like Manhattan aren't going to be particularly appealing to that group as a whole.

African-American migration from the City has tended to be focused more in the southeast suburbs like Calumet City, Harvey, Riverdale, Dolton, Markham, Lansing, University Park, Sauk Village, and so on. Monee is actually closer to that group of suburbs, but is still 63% white, though it's possibly transitioning to minority-majority as the black population there has increased significantly since 2000 (when it was 94% white).

Last edited by BRU67; 02-11-2022 at 10:07 AM..
 
Old 02-11-2022, 01:09 PM
Status: "I’m feeling lucky today..." (set 24 days ago)
 
Location: Lincolnshire
120 posts, read 163,622 times
Reputation: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
Interesting. It only has 8,200 people for one thing, and that is mostly the result of massive subdivision development during the 2000s and 2010s. In 2000, its population was a miniscule 3,300. So there hasn't been time or room for much demograpic turnover I'd imagine.

And while you say it's right by Joliet, it's actually closer to New Lenox, which is 96% white, and Frankfort, which is 94% white. So it really doesn't stand out like a sore thumb for its region.

Nor is Joliet itself minority-majority. It is 67% white, and 28% Hispanic and only 15% African-American. Hispanics in the Chicagoland area are still largely working class, so communities which are somewhat remote and isolated like Manhattan aren't going to be particularly appealing to that group as a whole.

African-American migration from the City has tended to be focused more in the southeast suburbs like Calumet City, Harvey, Riverdale, Dolton, Markham, Lansing, University Park, Sauk Village, and so on. Monee is actually closer to that group of suburbs, but is still 63% white, though it's possibly transitioning to minority-majority as the black population there has increased significantly since 2000 (when it was 94% white).
Monee and Joliet are still majority white, but not by much. And actually, Frankfort is only around 80% white, with around 8% being Black (mostly from Flossmoor from what I understand) and a decent-sized Hispanic minority. New Lenox and Mokena are still very white - around 90%, but not nearly as white as Manhattan, which in 2022 still manages to stay at 96%. In an area with cookie cutter neighborhoods not renowned for schools, how does this town manage to keep such a white core? Is there racial bias in home turnover, where white families don’t sell to minorities? The lack of apartments? High-end townhomes are slated for construction, but still. How does Manhattan stay the whitest town possibly in the Chicago metro?
 
Old 02-11-2022, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,386,985 times
Reputation: 3982
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym18123 View Post
And actually, Frankfort is only around 80% white, with around 8% being Black (mostly from Flossmoor from what I understand) and a decent-sized Hispanic minority. New Lenox and Mokena are still very white - around 90%, but not nearly as white as Manhattan, which in 2022 still manages to stay at 96%. In an area with cookie cutter neighborhoods not renowned for schools, how does this town manage to keep such a white core? Is there racial bias in home turnover, where white families don’t sell to minorities? The lack of apartments? High-end townhomes are slated for construction, but still. How does Manhattan stay the whitest town possibly in the Chicago metro?
Frankfort is the most diverse of these at 86% white per the 2020 Census and 8% black. Mokena weighs in next at 95% white and 1.2% black. New Lenox is 96% white, with blacks at a whopping 0.7%. And finally, our subject comes in at 98.4%, with no blacks found by the Census Bureau in 2020.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fr...illageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...illageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/mokenavillageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/ma...illageillinois

But anyway, a few percentage points aside, we can safely conclude that all of these communities are as white as a fresh slice of Wonderbread. Why? I've long thought, anecdotally, that the rapid growth in the southern exburbs was due to whites fleeing the suburbs east of there, many of which quickly turned majority black due to various social ills on the south side of Chicago, and many of which are still transitioning.

Since this is a relatively new phenonimum (maybe since 2000-ish), and the housing stock in these southwestern exburbs is very new, there perhaps has not been enough time for them to experience that kind of turnover. I have no information proving that there is an intentional bias as to home sales, so I'm not going to go there. And quite frankly, I think it would be very hard to do that today anyway. Realtors these days cannot even tell you about the crime that exists in an area, much less screen out people based on discriminatory factors. You could be walking over shell casings and your realtor would be telling you about how nice all the trees are on the block!
 
Old 03-11-2022, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Land of Ill Noise
3,375 posts, read 3,297,422 times
Reputation: 2179
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
Frankfort is the most diverse of these at 86% white per the 2020 Census and 8% black. Mokena weighs in next at 95% white and 1.2% black. New Lenox is 96% white, with blacks at a whopping 0.7%. And finally, our subject comes in at 98.4%, with no blacks found by the Census Bureau in 2020.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fr...illageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...illageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/mokenavillageillinois

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/ma...illageillinois

But anyway, a few percentage points aside, we can safely conclude that all of these communities are as white as a fresh slice of Wonderbread. Why? I've long thought, anecdotally, that the rapid growth in the southern exburbs was due to whites fleeing the suburbs east of there, many of which quickly turned majority black due to various social ills on the south side of Chicago, and many of which are still transitioning.

Since this is a relatively new phenonimum (maybe since 2000-ish), and the housing stock in these southwestern exburbs is very new, there perhaps has not been enough time for them to experience that kind of turnover. I have no information proving that there is an intentional bias as to home sales, so I'm not going to go there. And quite frankly, I think it would be very hard to do that today anyway. Realtors these days cannot even tell you about the crime that exists in an area, much less screen out people based on discriminatory factors. You could be walking over shell casings and your realtor would be telling you about how nice all the trees are on the block!
Once myself I did go all the way to the end of the Southwest Service Metra line(yes, into Manhattan, IL) on my own, in pre-COVID times in the 2010s. I wouldn't worry too much about it being 96% white, since I suspect one day that percentage will fall further. To me this over 90% white figure, is in line with other communities/towns on the outer edges of the Chicago metro area. I.e. for curiosity I looked up Hampshire, IL in Kane County, and right now the most recent Census data showed it was about 93% non-Hispanic white. Also as I remember, Manhattan didn't have as many suburban style housing developments occurring out there(from my very brief walk through downtown Manhattan, and also Elburn on a different weekend pass trip), as what I noticed had occurred in Elburn(to a greater extent).

I suspect one day in future years, Manhattan will start to look more diverse. Wouldn't be surprised if by the 2030 Census, Manhattan got closer to only being 90% white, or just maybe fall below 90%. Seriously why does it matter that much, if the most recent Census data shows 95-96% white for Manhattan? This is something I wouldn't worry much about, and to me the Census data showing it is that very white out in Manhattan doesn't surprise me. Elburn is also further along in it's development, due to the fact not surprisingly it's Metra schedule(for the Union Pacific West line having more trains, vs. Southwest Service, and also SW Service used to have a very limited Saturday schedule that went away post-COVID) has more trains scheduled to there. Of course with fewer Metra trains scheduled, that probably not as many residents will move out to Manhattan. I think one day Manhattan will get more growth, but I'm not sure how long that will take. It already is starting to see more growth, with the Hispanic population at 3%. I can only imagine this percentage will go up more, as time goes on.
 
Old 03-23-2023, 12:40 PM
 
2 posts, read 2,377 times
Reputation: 16
To this demographic information, my query is ”So what?” People live where their desires, wealth, and worldview allow them. Manhattan is a peaceful community where all sorts of good folks reside, work, and play.

Most residents of this hamlet couldn't care less what statistics appear on the decennial headcounts.

Having resided in Lincoln-Way land for 50 years, I'm certain that most people in New Lenox, Mokena, and Frankfort would agree.
 
Old 03-26-2023, 04:46 PM
 
197 posts, read 230,870 times
Reputation: 631
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zane821 View Post
Most residents of this hamlet couldn't care less what statistics appear on the decennial headcounts.
 
Old 04-04-2023, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,386,985 times
Reputation: 3982
Quote:
Originally Posted by SonySegaTendo617 View Post
Once myself I did go all the way to the end of the Southwest Service Metra line(yes, into Manhattan, IL) on my own, in pre-COVID times in the 2010s. I wouldn't worry too much about it being 96% white, since I suspect one day that percentage will fall further. To me this over 90% white figure, is in line with other communities/towns on the outer edges of the Chicago metro area. I.e. for curiosity I looked up Hampshire, IL in Kane County, and right now the most recent Census data showed it was about 93% non-Hispanic white. Also as I remember, Manhattan didn't have as many suburban style housing developments occurring out there(from my very brief walk through downtown Manhattan, and also Elburn on a different weekend pass trip), as what I noticed had occurred in Elburn(to a greater extent).

I suspect one day in future years, Manhattan will start to look more diverse. Wouldn't be surprised if by the 2030 Census, Manhattan got closer to only being 90% white, or just maybe fall below 90%. Seriously why does it matter that much, if the most recent Census data shows 95-96% white for Manhattan? This is something I wouldn't worry much about, and to me the Census data showing it is that very white out in Manhattan doesn't surprise me. Elburn is also further along in it's development, due to the fact not surprisingly it's Metra schedule(for the Union Pacific West line having more trains, vs. Southwest Service, and also SW Service used to have a very limited Saturday schedule that went away post-COVID) has more trains scheduled to there. Of course with fewer Metra trains scheduled, that probably not as many residents will move out to Manhattan. I think one day Manhattan will get more growth, but I'm not sure how long that will take. It already is starting to see more growth, with the Hispanic population at 3%. I can only imagine this percentage will go up more, as time goes on.
Good observations. Give it time. I don't think there's intentional redlining going on. Likely, the new and expensive homes attracted a certain (mostly white) demographic, much like a new BMW does. But as that housing stock ages and gets passed down to second, third, and fourth owners, it will deteriorate and you'll see more economic diversity.

As I said above, it's virtually impossible to "redline" now. Realtors are terrified to even mention crime. When I was looking at multi-units last year, my realtor was telling me they can't talk about crime but look at how lovely the block is. This was in East Garfield Park!! Lovely alright, if you don't mind 300 people shot each year, LOL!
 
Old 04-28-2023, 08:14 PM
 
Location: A Place With REAL People
3,260 posts, read 6,716,337 times
Reputation: 5105
I feel for you people. Focusing so much on diversity. Fact of the matter is as time goes on your crime will only continue to rise as growth continues. It won't require diversity to do that, but the diversity to some degree will simply add fuel to the flame. Good luck with that. I saw it happen when I was growing up in a place called Jeffrey Manor on the south side. Once a "Leave It To Beaver" neighborhood and now a home to crime, drugs and gangs. The diversity sure didn't do much good there.
 
Old 04-28-2023, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Illinois
3,204 posts, read 3,465,023 times
Reputation: 4234
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
As I said above, it's virtually impossible to "redline" now. Realtors are terrified to even mention crime. When I was looking at multi-units last year, my realtor was telling me they can't talk about crime but look at how lovely the block is. This was in East Garfield Park!! Lovely alright, if you don't mind 300 people shot each year, LOL!
It is a federal crime for any real estate licensee, REALTOR or not, to comment on "crime rates" per the Fair Housing Act. Obviously, fear and hysteria regarding crime have historically been used to discriminate against protected classes. Individuals should be using their best judgement. It does not make any sense as to why you would be asking your agent or property manager about neighborhood safety anyway. It's subjective and a licensee should not be expected to be knowledgeable about it.
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