Elmwood park , What is happing to it? (Humboldt: crimes, neighborhood)

[ndfmnlf]

And you took what he did say (31 HOMES burglarized) and compared it to a wider set of data on overall burglaries (including commercial and public buildings) in previous years. So you made an argument based on absent evidence -- you don't have the 2008 commercial and public building burglary rates. So actually, absent logic, too, on your part.

Again, you are assuming that data exists for commerical burglaries. Where is it? Since you implied that there is a separate data set for commercial burglaries that the mayor didn't talk about, show us where it is. Do you happen to have special knowledge about this? But if you can't produce this, then you are indeed arguing from silence.

As far as the credibility of the mayor's statistics, no I don't trust them. (You bringing that up is just one your own acts of "cherry picking" the environment of this thread.)

You're wrong. The person who cherry picked the mayor's statistics was the Elmwood Park basher named concerned resident. I took him up on his word and showed why even his own cherry picked statistics shows no significant spike in crime.

I would suspect that the 31 is the most favorable number he could provide and that it DOES NOT include garage burglaries, but my previous post left that part of the equation open.

You suspect? Are the homes in Elmwood Park separate from their garages? Is there a special reason why a garage burglary would be counted as a separate incident from a home burglary? What if the burglar burglarized both parts of the same house? Would that count as two separate incidents? Did it occur to you that your argument is getting sillier by the minute?

There is no doubt that if he said "homes" that 31 does not include restaurants, stores, etc., so the village is at a pace higher than 48 ... And the stats are all we have, no???? Remember whose argument that was?

Really? No doubt whatsoever? Were you present when the mayor said 31 homes? Did he actually use the word "homes"?

I know, I know....you pooh pooh the statistics because you'd rather believe your own eyes and ears. And when you are a witness to a crime or hear about it from close friends, the event does loom large in your mind in dramatic fashion. You can be excused for thinking that crime is rising in EP if you were an actual witness to it. The unsophisticated mind thinks that way.

But the reason statistics was developed is precisely to prevent people from making rash conclusions of the type you are making based on scattered anecdotal observations. Statistics enables you to make valid comparisons across time. Statistics is math. Math is hard, but it can't be that hard.

[oakparkdude]

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf

You suspect? Are the homes in Elmwood Park separate from their garages? Is there a special reason why a garage burglary would be counted as a separate incident from a home burglary? What if the burglar burglarized both parts of the same house? Would that count as two separate incidents? Did it occur to you that your argument is getting sillier by the minute?

Actually, around here most houses have detached garages and garage break ins are often categorized separately from home burglaries (as home burglaries are much less common.)

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by sukwoo

Actually, around here most houses have detached garages and garage break ins are often categorized separately from home burglaries (as home burglaries are much less common.)

I know the OPPD keeps track of garage burglaries separately, but they don't make it into the index stats that way. Garage burglaries count as home burglaries there.

No one has transcripts of what the "mayor" actually said (even though Elmwood Park has a village manager in lieu of a mayor--and they are NOT the same thing). It's pointless to even discuss this dubious statistic.

[ElmwoodParker]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

I know the OPPD keeps track of garage burglaries separately, but they don't make it into the index stats that way. Garage burglaries count as home burglaries there.

No one has transcripts of what the "mayor" actually said (even though Elmwood Park has a village manager in lieu of a mayor--and they are NOT the same thing). It's pointless to even discuss this dubious statistic.

We have an elected Village President, an appointed Village Manager (who after a several year hiatus of not being an EP citizen, just moved back to town in to a condo). We had the pleasure of paying his commuting expenses each and every day. (60 miles RT, village car, village gas).

[Mister Mappy]

Originally Posted by ElmwoodParker

We have an elected Village President, an appointed Village Manager (who after a several year hiatus of not being an EP citizen, just moved back to town in to a condo). We had the pleasure of paying his commuting expenses each and every day. (60 miles RT, village car, village gas).

Where the hell did he live? Wisconsin?

[ElmwoodParker]

Originally Posted by Mister Mappy

Where the hell did he live? Wisconsin?

Don't know if you're swearing at me or just swearing for the heck of it....but he used to live in the western suburbs. 60 miles RT (round trip).

[Lookout Kid]

Does anyone really still think the word "hell" is swearing?

[Johnny Northside]

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf

Again, you are assuming that data exists for commerical burglaries. Where is it? Since you implied that there is a separate data set for commercial burglaries that the mayor didn't talk about, show us where it is. Do you happen to have special knowledge about this? But if you can't produce this, then you are indeed arguing from silence.



You're wrong. The person who cherry picked the mayor's statistics was the Elmwood Park basher named concerned resident. I took him up on his word and showed why even his own cherry picked statistics shows no significant spike in crime.



You suspect? Are the homes in Elmwood Park separate from their garages? Is there a special reason why a garage burglary would be counted as a separate incident from a home burglary? What if the burglar burglarized both parts of the same house? Would that count as two separate incidents? Did it occur to you that your argument is getting sillier by the minute?



Really? No doubt whatsoever? Were you present when the mayor said 31 homes? Did he actually use the word "homes"?

I know, I know....you pooh pooh the statistics because you'd rather believe your own eyes and ears. And when you are a witness to a crime or hear about it from close friends, the event does loom large in your mind in dramatic fashion. You can be excused for thinking that crime is rising in EP if you were an actual witness to it. The unsophisticated mind thinks that way.

But the reason statistics was developed is precisely to prevent people from making rash conclusions of the type you are making based on scattered anecdotal observations. Statistics enables you to make valid comparisons across time. Statistics is math. Math is hard, but it can't be that hard.

What a laugh you are. I caught the absurdity of your statistical comparison of residential burglaries to date in 2008 (if you had read the original poster's comments) to ALL burglaries in 2006 and you won't even admit you were wrong. Instead you cover your tracks with absurd logic about me "not knowing" about 2008 commercial burglaries and all your Wikipedia BS. You're the one who tried to dazzle us with your math skills and provide "proof" that there is no uptick in crime in EP in 2008. Sorry, you can't do it. Until the 2008 stats are out, you can't use 2006 stats to assert that EP residents in 2008 are just racist and that there's no crime increase. Your lack of knowledge of the housing stock in EP (probably less than 10-15% of the houses -- all in the safest, quietest part of town -- have attached garages where burglars would even think of breaking into both home and garage at the same time) shows that you probably have no connection to the community, and are just here to wind up the good people of Elmwood Park. You had my attention when you were just quoting numbers. Now I am through with you.

[ElmwoodParker]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

Does anyone really still think the word "hell" is swearing?

Apparently I do. I don't care for a stranger speaking to me that way.

[Humboldt1]

Sorry dude, the word Hell is now part of our regular vernacular. You may not choose to use it, but it is certainly more accepted than in the early 90s when they came out with Bart Simpson's "I'm Bart Simpson, Who the Hell are you?" t-shirts. The principal actually made a kid turn that one inside out yet left alone the kids wearing co-ed naked t-shirts and big johnson t-shirts, as the principal did not understand those.

I look forward to the 2008 stats coming out for Elmwood Park. I do not live there, but I drive thru there twice each day and have eaten at a number of the establishments there. The area within a few blocks of north avenue and River Forest is fine and I don't see that area getting worse anytime soon. I also spend a fair amount of time in River Forest and Melrose Park and dated a girl who lived in Leyden Township for 2 years. I know the area well and all its challenges, particularly from Maywood and Austin overflows.

Other posters have referred to Elmwood Park as a fortress. This may have been true in the past. The real Fortress is River Forest. You do not cross from Maywood into River Forest looking for trouble. The police will take care of you if you even try to do something out of line in River Forest. It is so affluent that it will never go down, unless they start subdividing the homes as they did in affluent parts of Elgin years ago when their manufacturing sector declined.

NDF,

What is your connection to Elmwood Park? You seem to have spent a fair amount of time and energy defending it. Is this for social reasons, i.e. can't we all just get along rhetoric or do you really see Elmwood Park getting better or staying the same?