What do you think the next suburb to experience white flight will be? (Chicago: foreclosures, violent crime)

[At1WithNature]

Originally Posted by Opkl

I think Oak Forest.

This has already been happening for the past 5-10 years but good choice still.

[At1WithNature]

Originally Posted by Chicagoland60426

Its not much of a factor now, but it still happens. Where do you think most of the former Southeast(east of I-57) suburban whites move to? Southwest suburbs. Just 5-6 years ago Homewood-Flossmoor Highschool was 60% white, now decrease down to 35%. The interesting part is Flossmoor is still upper middle class and 62% white. Neighboring Homewood is 73% white. Either that area is full of whites that don't have high schoolers or something is not right.

You've heard of private school, right? Plus a lot of the white residents that remain after minorities move in are white people who are OLD or don't have kids.

[scotty40]

Originally Posted by Chicagoland60426

Its not much of a factor now, but it still happens. Where do you think most of the former Southeast(east of I-57) suburban whites move to? Southwest suburbs. Just 5-6 years ago Homewood-Flossmoor Highschool was 60% white, now decrease down to 35%. The interesting part is Flossmoor is still upper middle class and 62% white. Neighboring Homewood is 73% white. Either that area is full of whites that don't have high schoolers or something is not right.

The Census Beareu just released their American Community Survey- it covers towns with over 20k population and selected school districts. District 233-(Homewood Flossmoor high school) was studied.

The entire district (residents, not students) includes 40,000 people. The numbers are (+/- 3% accuracy) 55.5% white, 40.9% black.

Homewood has a population of 19,xxx; Flossmoor 9,xxx. So, this survey includes approximately 11-12,000 non residents from Chicago Heights and other largely minority communities.


H/F has always been a move-up community in the south suburbs. Just a thought- there are many more upwardly mobile black families than there has ever been in the past. Like everyone else- they want to move to an area with decent schools and nicer housing. You would expect that the familes with older kids would be more established and in a better position to move up- that may explain why the high school has such a higher % of blacks than say Homewood's k-2 grade center.

Another thought-Homewood (for example) has average about 103 Home sales per year for the last 10 years. Average household size is 2.57 which shows about 2600 new residents (ignoring the fact that many people move from one house to another in the same town). Even if all of them were black ( which is certainly not true)- you are looking at less than a 14% increase in the black population.

Again- when an area continues to have rising housing prices with an average family income of near 80k (Homewood) and over 131K (Flossmoor), its really hard to apply the old "White Flight" model.

[At1WithNature]

The thing about Homewood, if someone is reading this thread and is not familar with it, is the quality of the neighboring towns including one that was rated one of the worst towns in all of America! (Markham) that takes it down a notch in my book. And I think everyone familar with the Chicago Southland realizes that Homewood's neighbor to the North (off of Halsted) is faaaaar worse than Markham (Harvey) so what does that say about Homewood's northern neighbors? Plus, throw in towns like East Hazel Crest, Hazel Crest, Chicago Heights, Glenwood...forget about it!

Do you (nobody personal just in general) think these gang bangers in these neighboring communities don't travel into Homewood now and then for home invasions? i know they do personally. in 2004, i was at my g/f's house in the apartments at 183rd and Halsted (Eastern Edge of Homewood) when two black males kicked the door in and put us all on the floor at gunpoint which included my g/f's mother. it turns out my g/f's brother was a weed dealer. they took two ounces of "hydro" from him and a few hundred dollars. Of course these instances may seem rare but they're not THAT rare.

Since the kids (13 and 14 year olds) of a town like homewood go to school and share 8 hours a day with kids from broken families who gang bang and engage in drug activity from towns like Chicago Heights, it will influence them. So I think the youth of Homewood is not as good of quality as the home owners are.

It's a confused town, Homewood is. It is a town that has a great picture from the outside. but on the inside you have a town struggling to hold onto its' past and a very strong and disciplined police force cracking down any way that they can.

[Mister Mappy]

I went to Homewood-Flossmoor back in the 80's, and Flossmoor already was about 5-10% black back then. Also, the H-F district serves more than just Homewood and Flossmoor. I lived in Glenwood when I went to H-F. Besides part of Glenwood, there are parts of Chicago Heights, Hazel Crest, and Olympia Fields that go to H-F, so those portions of those towns that are in the district would affect that survey.

[Mister Mappy]

Originally Posted by Chicagoland60426

Yeah, but mostly the North part of Chicago Heights attend H/F schools, and this is considered the nice part. Flossmoor is 62% white and neighboring Homewood is 73% white. Most schools in Flossmoor is majority black, and most Chicago Heights high schoolers attend Bloom and Bloom Trail high school. These kids might be going to private school, but why all of a sudden?

Those percentages are based on the 2000 census, aren't they? We're one year away from the 2010 census. Those percentages don't really reflect the population in Homewood & Flossmoor in 2009. I'd bet Homewood is about 60-65% white, and Flossmoor's close to 50/50.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Justabystander

Why Oak Lawn? People have been predicting that for 25 years, and Oak Lawn keeps improving over time ( have you been there lately? ) If anything, it would become more Arab, since the Arab population in that general area ( Burbank, Bridgeview) keeps on growing.

Yes I have been to Oak Lawn lately. The northeast (around 95th and Cicero)part of Oak Lawn is starting to change and not in a good way.
Here:

Originally Posted by Mamama Mia

I don't see that happening. Beverly, Morgan Park and some of Mt. Greenwood are extremely diverse and that hasn't seemed to effect OL.

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

Beverly has only have become diverse as of recently (last 10 years or so.) It is still uncertain what will happen to all of those areas. If those areas "fall" so to speak Oak Lawn will not be far behind (20 years or so.)

[prairiestate]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

I hope I'm wrong but ... Evergreen Park.

Well, Evergreen Park High School is less then 60% white now. Interestingly, there is a pretty substantial Hispanic minority in EP.

Interactive Illinois Report Card

Just to the north, Ashburn, which saw white flight a decade ago, is still a pretty nice community in many respects. However, there are regular gang shootings, robberies and other violent crime there now. This really isn't a racial issue anymore, but a class issue. I know that many of the middle class black families that moved in a decade ago want out now, because of the rapidly escalating gang activity. It's the classic pattern, whites fled more quickly then homes could be sold, so prices dropped. Low income families, some of whom had gang ties moved in, and rising crime and foreclosures became a self fulfilling prophecy.

I think people are finally starting to realize that there is no place to go, if you flee, you just leave a path of destruction behind you. I have several relatives in EP, and I remember as a kid all the way back in the 80's, when it was all white, there were conversations about the future of the village. In the 90's, there was a lot of talk about moving amongst my family. Today, I have two aunts who have no intention of leaving, and one who just moved back into town from Homer Glen. Hopefully EP will remain one the very few integrated communities in Chicagoland.

[Opkl]

Originally Posted by prairiestate

Hopefully EP will remain one the very few integrated communities in Chicagoland.

I hope your right.

[ricardocobos]

I thought with an Obama Presidency we were past that as a nation.