Highland Park Prices (Evanston, Wilmette, Lake Forest: days on market, sales, real estate)

[skontoller]

Does any else feel as if Highland Park prices have dropped more dramatically than other comparable North Shore neighborhoods, namely Glencoe, Winnetka, Lake Forest and Wilmette? Any thoughts?

[hsw]

>$2MM houses have been illiquid everywhere that matters in US for past 6mos, so no one really knows actual trading prices

HP has issues of slummy demographics of public elem schools, influencing choices of new buyers w/young families

Winnetka/Glencoe is perhaps more protected w/New Trier and proximity to Loop (though lots of old dumpy apt bldgs in New Trier dt, so doubt public schools arbitrage is sustainable)

LF has crappy public schools and weak pvt schools and a longer drive to Loop than Winnetka

Suspect prices in many upscale suburbs in Chic, NYC, SF and LA will be down ~50% from peak by time bottom reached...and RE bottoms usually occur several yrs from peak (see early '90s price dynamics in BeverlyHills or Manhattan; '89 peak vs ~'94 bottom)....and prices can stagnate along bottom for yrs...

[Paige65]

They were never as high to begin with. When we were looking 10-15 years ago, the same house situated in HP would be about 10-15% more if it were in Winnetka.

[skontoller]

Thanks guys. I realize that HP is significantly cheaper than Glencoe and Winnetka but I was still impressed but the relative price decline in the former. Price wise I'd put HP on par with Willmette, though.

Is it all New Trier that protects G, W, Wil and K from severe price decpreciation?

SK

[Anthera]

Its not just NT. Some people like the shorter commute to the loop. Some like a smaller village rather than a city. The fact that HP is heavily Jewish is a disincentive to some, not necessarily from antisemitism, as much as a desire to not be an outsider.

[US-Traveller]

Skontoller,

In all real estate markets the New Trier Township communities have had typically higher housing prices than Highland Park. This is because of a number of reasons: Shorter commutes, more community amenities, generally more aethetically pleasing neighborhoods (not that Highland Park isn't attractive), and New Trier's more well known reputation for excellence in education. I don't think that antisemitism has anything to do with pricing. If I had to chose between a Glencoe/Winnetka and Highland Park, I would choose Glencoe/Winnetka in a heartbeat.

[skontoller]

What amenities do W/G have that HP doesn't? I would say that HP actually has a more robust shopping district than either of the aforementioned villages.

One could concede that both W/G are more aesthetically pleasing and have a certain small town charm about them but I wouldn't say the same for Wilmette. It has lots of older ranches and not the greatest downtown.

I've been here for less than a year so I'm still pretty new.

SK

[Sarah H.]

I don't think HP prices have fallen more than Winnetka. There have been houses on the market here for over a year thathave been reduced to the same price than they were 6 years ago. They're sitting. That's scary. For whatever reason Glencoe, Winnetka, and Wilmette are more than HP- perhaps because HP is bigger and there is more of a range? Although Wilmette has all those condos on the lake and small split levels on the South and West borders that bring the sales average down somewhat.

HP's town is better but more commercial. Some people find this a negative but a thriving downtown is good for the local economy. Sunset Foods is amazing. I can't figure out why they don't have a location further South along the lake. Our local grocery stores are fine but nothing compared to Sunset. Fresh Market came in a while ago but it's nothing great- not enough organic produce, no organic meat and the ready made stuff is just ok. I can't figure out that one. Why couldn't there have been a better choice? ok, now I'm totally off topic. Sorry.

[cohdane]

I've been out of town, so sorry for being late to the thread.

Been looking on the North Shore for a year and following prices VERY closely. Wilmette is the one town I'd say that's definitely holding up okay. Lower inventory and fewer days on market.

Highland Park has definitely taken a dive in the last year. Using Redfin.com "previous sales" map, you can see the sales prices on any given street in the last 10 years and quickly see there was quite a bubble here (and the rest of the North Shore). Matching a price from 6 years ago puts you at 2003-- four years into the bubble. Is that a good price or a bad one? Hard to call.

From what I can tell, much of the North Shore has a significant inventory problem. Sellers aren't lowering their prices, so buyers aren't buying. Especially the $1 million+ mansions built within the last eight years. The whole thing is out of whack. They tore down the "middle" income homes and overstocked the high end. Now nothing's moving because no one can trust the prices.

Occasionally, someone prices at 2003 or 1998 and the home sells. And sets a new lower standard for the area. More disturbingly are the foreclosures that are getting bought up at the bargain basement price and quickly flipped for the crawlspace price. Since they're not technically foreclosures anymore, they also "count" as sales comps and lower bar price-wise for the neighborhood.

Winnetka has taken a big hit and has further to fall. Glencoe doesn't seem as bad, but not as good as Wilmette. Lake Forest I'd be worried about. Feels like they'll come to the party late and ugly. I'll PM you a couple of links for inventory and price trends by suburb on the North Shore. Looking at days-on-market and months supply will give you a quick read on who's really in trouble.

Bottom line after a year of watching Highland Park? Not safe to go into the water till all the McMansions wash out through purchase or foreclosure. There is a 40+ month supply of them. Incredibly, you can find some still under construction less than a block away from others that already have the orange stickers or auction signs on them. Sad and bizarre.

After it all settles down, HP is a gorgeous place to live. Great ravines, beaches, music, parks, schools, community. It's a great testament to the area that many people move back after they move away. Or never leave for generations.

Nothing wrong up here except an unprecedented and unbalanced housing market. Hopefully none of the North Shore communities will suffer any permanent damage from it.

[edsg25]

Originally Posted by hsw

HP has issues of slummy demographics of public elem schools, influencing choices of new buyers w/young families

I'd have to agree. HP is second to Evanston in variety of housing prices and nature of neighborhoods (although a far behind second).

Certainly Wilmette, Kenilworth, Glencoe, Lk Forest, and Lk Bluff are all more homogenous.