Why is Chicago losing population? (live in, military, centers)

[Chicago60614]

^^ I actually sat at work VERY bored one day and analyzed all the murders from 2007.

I found (by using the police districts and populations of corresponding neighborhoods) that roughly:

25% of people in Chicago live in areas with 75% of the homicides
75% of people in Chicago live in areas with 25% of the homicides

The North Side closer to the lake has around 800,000 people, something like 27% of the city's population, and had a very small handfull of murders each year. Maybe 3-4% of the total.

The race breakdown was interesting (not surprising if you read the news) as well:

77% Black
18% Hispanic
5% White
0% Asian

In 2009 there were 163 homicides through June 4th:

6 of those homicides were north of around North Avenue
157 of those homicides were south of around North Avenue

That's pretty crazy if you think that North Ave isn't too far away from where 50% of the population of the city lives on either side.

You have a 27X greater chance of being murdered living south of that line than north!

[Chi-town Native]

geographically, the South Side (especially if you use 1600 N. as your dividing line) is monstrous, though.

[Drover]

Originally Posted by Chi-town Native

geographically, the South Side (especially if you use 1600 N. as your dividing line) is monstrous, though.

But how about population-wise? The south side is considerably less densely populated.

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by Drover

But how about population-wise? The south side is considerably less densely populated.

Exactly, many south side neighborhoods have 10,000 to 20,000 people, as opposed to very dense areas on the north side. Then there's the industrial areas all along the Stevenson, that entire Wolf Lake area of nothing, and huge train yards.

I'm not sure where the population dividing line is....but the north side packs in more residential area per pound than the south.

[Chicago60614]

So I realized the community areas were pretty much split right north of North Ave.

I added up the 2000 counts of all those neighborhoods and came up with 1,091,000 people living north of that line I had talked about, or 38% of the population.

so 38% of the population in 2009 is dealing with 3.7% of the homicides.

[Avengerfire]

If you are going to divide Chicago into two areas (north and south) Madison is the dividing line. No ifs ands or buts.

[Chicago60614]

says whom?

[Avengerfire]

^ Says a vast majority of Chicagoans and the city map ^

[paytonc]

Originally Posted by Chicago60614

That's pretty crazy if you think that North Ave isn't too far away from where 50% of the population of the city lives on either side.

The answer to the "median/mean population center" depends on how you ask it, of course, but two answers (calculated by a geographer) are here.

Half of Chicagoans live north of Monroe -- conveniently, one block from Madison! -- and half live east of Leavitt. The "mean population center" ("if the city were balanced on a pin and every person was the same weight, where would the pin be?") is just over a mile away, near 16th & Western. (This is different because it takes into consideration the distance from the center; although everyone's of equal weight, those at the edges upset the balance more, and there's more far south side than far north. Make sense?) The geographic center of the city is not far from there: in the south branch of the river, where 29th & Leavitt would be.

Anyhow, interesting to know that the geographic distribution of murders in Chicago relative to population nearly falls along the 80/20 rule. Still, I'd point out that cars kill 50% more Americans than guns do.

As for population decline, I blame it mostly on smaller households. During the boom years, I sat on a local zoning review board -- childless couples were tearing down 4-flats (100 years ago, each of those flats probably held an extended family) to build McMansions. Yet somehow the streets and sidewalks are all busier, too, since the new residents spend more, drive more, etc.

[Chicagoland60426]

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

^ Says a vast majority of Chicagoans and the city map ^

True, but that is like the oldschool way. Nowadays some people use North Ave. as the beginning of the Northside. And what about the unofficial westside? According to the city map, Wicker Park/West Town is consider a westside neighborhood. Even though its refered as part of the gentrified Northside.