Why is Chicago losing population? (Arlington Heights, Wilmette: middle-class, apartments, movers)

[CHICAGOLAND92]

In 2000, the population was 2,896,016.
The 2006 estimate (according to City-Data) was 2,833,321.

Does anyone else find this suprising, since there is a lot of gentrification happening around the city, as well as many condos being built downtown?

[Drover]

First of all, take the 2006 estimate with a grain of salt because it's just that: an estimate. The Census Bureau claims the margin of error within its estimates are about +/- 3%. The difference in populations is well within that margin. If you look at the Bureau estimates for the 1990s, you never would have known that Chicago was actually going to gain population in 2000 for the first time since the 50s.

Second, even if it were true, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised. Middle-class families are being priced out of the city; particularly those who are trying to purchase their first homes or did not own a home in a "hot" market that gave them the chance to build up a quick pile of equity cash to drop on their next home purchase. So who's taking their place? Single and/or DINK professionals and empty-nesters who don't have the expense of kids or the concern about good schools.

[NYrules]

I think many of the northern cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and so on have been loosing people for many years due to the growing popularity of the sun-belt states where cities like Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas welcome people in with open arms and the cost of living by comparison with Chicago is either similar or lower. That said, more and more companies are moving into regions like Austin, Houston, San Antonio because they know they can entice more potential employees into their companies at lower salaries as the cost of living and doing business is a little lower. Another thing that makes it really rough for northern cities to attract new movers is common knowledge that northern cities have less appealing winters and are typically very old meaning: old roads, housing, schools, infrastructure, lack of open land causing people to seek out new and fresh areas. All that said it really surprises me that Chicago isn't losing more people to sun-belt areas.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by NYrules

I think many of the northern cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and so on have been loosing people for many years due to the growing popularity of the sun-belt states where cities like Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas welcome people in with open arms and the cost of living by comparison with Chicago is either similar or lower. That said, more and more companies are moving into regions like Austin, Houston, San Antonio because they know they can entice more potential employees into their companies at lower salaries as the cost of living and doing business is a little lower. Another thing that makes it really rough for northern cities to attract new movers is common knowledge that northern cities have less appealing winters and are typically very old meaning: old roads, housing, schools, infrastructure, lack of open land causing people to seek out new and fresh areas. All that said it really surprises me that Chicago isn't losing more people to sun-belt areas.

Thats why the suburbs are booming. LOTS of folks from Chicago move out here, its cheaper and they get land with their purchase.

[midwest1]

The 2 main reasons Chicago is (or may be) losing population are gentrification (smaller households) and Mexicans having less and less kids- or those kids affording to have their own places/apartments, decreasing the population density.

And remember, suburban towns such as Wilmette, Winnetka and Arlington Heights are losing population as well. No problems there.

It's a sign of wealth, not decline.

[Drover]

Originally Posted by NYrules

I think many of the northern cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and so on have been loosing people for many years due to the growing popularity of the sun-belt states where cities like Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas welcome people in with open arms and the cost of living by comparison with Chicago is either similar or lower.

That would make sense if all the aforementioned MSAs were also losing population as well as the cities proper. People have been leaving cities proper for a while now for reasons that are specific to those cities proper (though the net-outflow trend is slowing down and perhaps even reversing in some) rather than the MSAs as a whole.

[pandabear]

Originally Posted by midwest1

The 2 main reasons Chicago is (or may be) losing population are gentrification (smaller households) and Mexicans having less and less kids- or those kids affording to have their own places/apartments, decreasing the population density.

And remember, suburban towns such as Wilmette, Winnetka and Arlington Heights are losing population as well. No problems there.

It's a sign of wealth, not decline.

Okay gentrification is definatly a reason. Chicago like LA and New York, has suburbs that are more affordable than the city. But mexicans having LESS babies and affording their own places? I don't think so. Ask someone who is white and living in Dallas or San Diego if it seems to him mexicans are having LESS babies. Your gonna get laughed out of existance talking that nonsense.

[BRU67]

I think there are a lot of reasons. Gentrification tends to result in smaller households, not larger ones. There are many condos going up, yes, but most condo buyers do not have children. As to Mexican immigrants, there is some evidence to support the argument they are having fewer children -- though I doubt this is a significant reason for Chicago's population decline. More likely, Mexican families are leaving the city for the suburbs for same reasons their white predecessors did -- better schools, more green space, less crime, etc.

[KevK]

Actually if you compare Chicago to many northern cities, it ain't that bad. Detroit and Cleveland and Milwaukee have all lost lots more folks. But then again Chicago lost me. I live in GA now. And yes, I DO like short warm winters and no snow! But Chicago has alot to offer too.

[paytonc]

Drover gives the two most important reasons. On the first, the Census Bureau's methodologies traditionally result in undercounts in urban areas; they've gotten much better at this since 1990, but for various reasons it's much more difficult to even estimate population in cities.

It's also hard to understate just how dramatic an effect gentrification has on population. Two first-time homebuyers I know in "up and coming" city neighborhoods replaced 6-8 person households with 2. Multiply that across entire neighborhoods, and you're looking at population losses that nearly outweigh all the new construction -- even in "hot spots" like West Town and Lake View.

The long-standing flight from cities for the usual reasons is also still occurring in Chicago -- just as it is in NYC, LA, and all other major American cities. The big cities have always been "factories for Americans," where immigrants arrive before moving along; reportedly, one in seven Americans can trace their ancestry through Brooklyn alone. This is nothing new.