Anyone familiar with South Shore? (Chicago, Woodlawn: bank owned, sales, apartments)

[Lookout Kid]

One thing that's unique about South Shore is that it's one of the only high-density areas on the South Side that is such a large black majority. I can't think of another neighborhood like it anywhere in the city--or in any other American city outside of New York.

[PokerPlayer1]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Don't know if it's people moving there driving up the prices as much as it is speculators driving up the prices. My guess is the latter.

Whether it will "cool" is anyone's guess.

There's no "guessing" involved. The market for these places has definitely, definitely "cooled" and people who put speculative money into gentrification plays in outlying, marginal areas are getting positively killed right now. There's an old traders allegory about "trading sardines", that speaks to how price- especially mania driven prices- often aren't an accurate barometer of value.

"Once upon a time, a trader bought a tin of sardines for $1 and sold them to a rival for $1.50. This trader in turn sold them for $2" and so on and so forth. A lucrative market in canned sardines developed... Years pass, until chancing upon a man willing to pay $10. The buyer, who was famished, decided to open the tin only to find that the sardines were inedible. ‘But you don’t understand,’ the vendor said. ‘These sardines were for trading, not eating’."

The moral of the story is that assets are worth, ultimately, what someone is prepared to pay for them, and that price may be a poor reflection of their real value."

For the past 8 years, South Shore real estate has been the equivalent of "trading sardines". It's valuation structure relied on a collective real estate mania that detached the underlying fundamentals from the ultimate price. Now that the mania has subsided, people look at South Shore and see an almost exclusively black, crime ridden area as opposed to the "up-and-coming neighborhood' that they saw when condo prices anywhere and everywhere were realizing 15%-20% a year.

Architecture is about all South Shore has going for it. Sadly, there is no design or building so appealing that one would forsake their freedom and safety to live in; well, at least most realistic people. Some need to learn their lessons the hard way.

[ajolotl]

pokerplayer: do you honestly know anything specific about south shore real estate, or are you applying the boilerplate real-estate bust analysis without any deeper knowledge of the recent history of the neighborhood? Have you ever even been there?

[BRU67]

I agree that the days where 61 of the 77 community areas were "about to pop" (and apparently send all their unwashed denizens into the suburbs) are done and over with, and that a lot of people will lose their you-know-what for betting on this lofty vision coming true. But I see the South Shore, South Loop, Douglas, Oakland, etc. retaining speculator interest due to the Olympics and the President, as well as the lake, architecture and history.

[ajolotl]

and the university also. UofC is a huge source of jobs and many employees can no longer afford to live in Hyde Park. The university offers various forms of subsidies to move into surrounding areas. From that angle also it has some upside. Not sure how much, though.

Originally Posted by BRU67

I agree that the days where 61 of the 77 community areas were "about to pop" (and apparently send all their unwashed denizens into the suburbs) are done and over with, and that a lot of people will lose their you-know-what for betting on this lofty vision coming true. But I see the South Shore, South Loop, Douglas, Oakland, etc. retaining speculator interest due to the Olympics and the President, as well as the lake, architecture and history.

[ItsMeBitches]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

One thing that's unique about South Shore is that it's one of the only high-density areas on the South Side that is such a large black majority. I can't think of another neighborhood like it anywhere in the city--or in any other American city outside of New York.

Most of the hoods on the Eastside are dense. Woodlawn, Bronzeville, Southshore are all dense. Its just white people up north are mad ignant bout the way black people live in Chicago. We aint all bungalow.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by ItsMeBitches

Most of the hoods on the Eastside are dense. Woodlawn, Bronzeville, Southshore are all dense. Its just white people up north are mad ignant bout the way black people live in Chicago. We aint all bungalow.

Sorry for being so ignant.

The Eastside, Woodlawn, and Bronzeville don't have the high-rise built density of South Shore, however. Thanks for playing. Dumbass.

[lincolnparker]

I believe that some of the 12000 section 8 residents, formerly in highrises, have been relocated to south shore, if you watched the WGN Chicago 9pm special report yesterday. Crime rates are definitely on the rise as a result

[PokerPlayer1]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

pokerplayer: do you honestly know anything specific about south shore real estate, or are you applying the boilerplate real-estate bust analysis without any deeper knowledge of the recent history of the neighborhood? Have you ever even been there?

I don't find myself going there very often as there isn't much there that's worthwhile, but yeah, I do understand the area pretty well. I've been there plenty of times and suffered from the same intrigues that others do about the area- the difference being, I'm not dumb enough to write the check. My condolences if you bought there. Standard, fundamental real estate bust analysis applies to a tee in South Shore, with the added aggravator of a racial component.

There is absolutely nothing about South Shore or recent South Shore investing history that suggests it's immune from conventional paradigms.

[ajolotl]

I live a mile away. I don't think there was ever a boom or bust in South Shore, and it never made it very far along the path of gentrification. Quite a few people black and white swear by their Highlands enclave, but they have lived there ever since I came to the south side 25 years ago. Some University people live in the highrises on the lake and feel like they've beaten the system by being on the lake and paying so little. They have been doing that for at least 25 years also. Otherwise, there might have been talk of the 'next great neighborhood' but I don't think there was much backing it. Some softening of prices since then of course, and maybe they are still a bit too high and have some speculation built in, but there was no real boom or bust in my view.

I've learned on the south side that gentrification is very slow. I do think that south shore has an upside that makes it a very strong candidate for gentrification long-term, independent of any short-term speculative boom/bust cycle. No guarantees, though.

Originally Posted by PokerPlayer1

I don't find myself going there very often as there isn't much there that's worthwhile, but yeah, I do understand the area pretty well. I've been there plenty of times and suffered from the same intrigues that others do about the area- the difference being, I'm not dumb enough to write the check. My condolences if you bought there. Standard, fundamental real estate bust analysis applies to a tee in South Shore, with the added aggravator of a racial component.

There is absolutely nothing about South Shore or recent South Shore investing history that suggests it's immune from conventional paradigms.