Houston Could Pass Chicago as Third-Largest City in U.S. in Next Decade (Des Plaines: school districts, taxes)

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

^ It's more than just heat and sea level rise. Both will have adverse impacts though. The intensity of storms, droughts, etc. that will have the biggest impact. Houston is already incredibly susceptible to flooding. The private sector won't even provide flood insurance in the area because it's impossible to make any money. This, coupled with heat and an rising sea levels (look into the positive feedback loop) spells disaster sooner than some may think. I'm honestly expecting to regularly see Chicago in the 50s in January in my lifetime. That's no bueno.

This year was wacky. Essentially zero snowfall this winter except one storm in early December and one quick one in early March.

In January and February we had 16 days in the 50's, 60's and 70's. It was above 50 degrees more than we had highs below freezing, and half the days should be below freezing.

We had about as many days in the 60's and 70's as we had in the 10's and 20's. Who would have EVER thought that for January and February?

Of the 151 days from November through March when we could see days with highs below freezing - we saw only 25, or around 16%. Meanwhile we saw twice as many days in the 50's-80's during that period than days below freezing.

[jwaiter]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

...Chicago in the 50s in January in my lifetime. That's no bueno.

We had about a week of near 70 in February this winter, it was very weird.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

^ It's more than just heat and sea level rise. Both will have adverse impacts though. The intensity of storms, droughts, etc. that will have the biggest impact. Houston is already incredibly susceptible to flooding. The private sector won't even provide flood insurance in the area because it's impossible to make any money.

Not sure on the specifics of Houston or Texas, but globally losses as a proportion to GDP is way down....


https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/st...68439508959234

This, coupled with heat and an rising sea levels (look into the positive feedback loop) spells disaster sooner than some may think.

Well versed in this area. I know a lot about it.

I'm honestly expecting to regularly see Chicago in the 50s in January in my lifetime. That's no bueno.

You'll be very disappointed.


Average high temps have barely budged over last 90 years at MDW. Lows have gone up... Probably mainly due to increased UHI, and possibly climate change...







What happens in the future is anyone's guess. But don't bet on the regional climate models (global models may be more accurate though). The regional ones are a bunch of BS. I've talked with Gavin Schmidt and he even says this...


These modelers are talking about 70+ days at or above 90F by the end of this century while current number of days are lower than the 1940-90's, and way below the Dust Bowl years. We are going in reverse from what the models suggest

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

You'll be very disappointed.


Average high temps have barely budged over last 90 years at MDW. Lows have gone up... Probably mainly due to increased UHI, and possibly climate change...







What happens in the future is anyone's guess. But don't bet on the regional climate models. They are BS


These modelers are talking about 70+ days at or above 90F by the end of this century while current number of days are lower than the 1950-80's. We are going in reverse from what the models suggest

The surface temperature of the earth has broken records year after year for over a decade now and shows no signs of slowing. I'm not a climate expert, but from what I have researched, we're in for some serious changes to our climate over the next 20-30 years. As others have stated, this winter was VERY abnormal. One winter does not indicative of a trend, but the fact that we were in the 60s and 70s in January and February consistently is shocking and should set off alarm bells.

[DavePa]

I think all these charts are getting ridicules. I'm surprised they can pasted as they are? When for pictures it can be a no no. I'm fine with a couple and especially some LATEST stats out.

As for climate change? Chicago on a unlimited Fresh water source. Can have it endure even a hotter and drier climate. I find NEW STATS showing even Mighty NYC seeing a pretty massive exodus from IRS metro. Is ironic, with ALL THE PAST POST TO LOWER CHICAGOLAND BY USING NYC STATS.

Now these same people need to use sunbelt cities to push a Chicago in declines. In Debt, the sunbelt cities are catching up fast to high levels with threats of bankruptcy if their state doesn't help. Corruption too.... fa'geta'bout'it.

Not to just look at Chicago with denial and rose colored glasses alone. But the same boat keeps getting larger. A iceberg ahead includes even sunbelt cities growing in population greatly. But can't even cover their streets with ditches instead of curbing with drains. If a developer does then it happens. Not the cities.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

The surface temperature of the earth has broken records year after year for over a decade now and shows no signs of slowing. I'm not a climate expert, but from what I have researched, we're in for some serious changes to our climate over the next 20-30 years. As others have stated, this winter was VERY abnormal. One winter does not indicative of a trend,

in January and February consistently is shocking and should set off alarm bells.

January was nothing special, but that week in February was indeed extraordinary. Ended up being third warmest February on record behind 1882,1998, and slightly infront of 1954.
That's ORD data. If we used Midway data, it would rank warmest on record for Chicago. Also back in 1976, we reached 75F in February...


Btw 2015 was tied for the coldest February on record with1875

[compactspace]

To the OP, you seem very bearish on the city. What, in your opinion, will turn it around?

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

January was nothing special, but that week in February was indeed extraordinary. Ended up being third warmest February on record behind 1882,1998, and slightly infront of 1954.
That's ORD data. If we used Midway data, it would rank warmest on record for Chicago. Also back in 1976, we reached 75F in February...


Btw 2015 was tied for the coldest February on record with1875

Again, I'm not a climate expert, but wild, erratic changes in weather are a symptom of climate change. Obviously there will be fluctuations in temperature from year to year, but the fact that we're continually breaking previous records year after year is concerning. The science suggests that these trends will only accelerate. There will be more extreme weather patterns more frequently and increasing temperatures yearly. That's no good for a place like Houston which is susceptible to things like hurricanes and even tornadoes. We're also increasingly vulnerable to tornadoes.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by compactspace

To the OP, you seem very bearish on the city. What, in your opinion, will turn it around?

I wasn't bearish during the 2000's. We were gentrifying, and adding to our population through immigration. I thought that trend was going to continue. Now we have a bustling core (I own property in the South Loop), and Northside, but much of the rest of the city is being hollowed out. Im not saying Chicago will turn in Detroit, but why cant we be growing like most other cities?

[SkylarkPhotoBooth]

I find the obsession with this topic over the years to be odd. Houston gaining a couple hundred thousand people or Chicago losing a couple of hundred thousand people isn't going to change the fact that Houston is Houston and Chicago is Chicago-- very different cities. Chicago is more my style, but if others prefer Houston, more power to them. (Personally, Austin is the only place I would live in Texas, and even then only if I could go back in a time machine a decade or two.)

If all anyone cared about was living in the largest city possible, wouldn't we all move to New York? (Or better yet Mexico City, Karachi, Shanghai, or Mumbai? Bigger is better, right?) I couldn't care less whether I live in the first, fourth, or 104th largest city, as long as it's a city I like.