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Old 06-09-2017, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Chicago
4,576 posts, read 4,665,810 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frimpter928 View Post
I highly doubt it. It seems like the poor are leaving and the rich are moving in. The problem is Chicago has A LOT of poor people so it's taking it's tool on the population numbers.
You aren't very smart, are you?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ies-in-the-us/
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:05 PM
 
4,090 posts, read 2,272,645 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
The Census data clearly indicates that the middle class is leaving Chicago. It isn't the poor, or the rich.
Mod cut.

Chicago still has a solid Middle-Class. Mod cut.

So not sure what you make of the US Conference of Mayors report (I posted) on a 30-yr period of populations of our metros? They seem to see Chicago improving at a 8% growth and place NYC metro at 2.6% in 30-yrs change. You see Chicago loosing continually. But they did not.

Last edited by PJSaturn; 06-23-2017 at 03:25 PM.. Reason: Rude comments; personal barbs.
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:42 PM
 
Location: The Windy City
5,333 posts, read 3,961,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
The Census data clearly indicates that the middle class is leaving Chicago. It isn't the poor, or the rich.
I think the suburbs are hurting more than the city. Also, I do think the poor are leaving Chicago. Many of the high crime neighborhoods are seeing a population decrease. Englewood lost 10K residents between 2000 and 2010.

I met a TON of people from Chicago when I was living in Dallas. Most of them were 30-50 years old, middle class, with kids. Most were from the burbs and were getting out because of weather, economy, cost of living, and taxes.
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Old 06-09-2017, 04:09 PM
 
28,461 posts, read 76,435,588 times
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Default The more detailed info is actually available from IRS tax return summaries...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
While statista.com is good for some things, the info that correlates income is more readily available from the IRS. That data shows that higher income residents of Illinois are leaving. That makes sense as such folks have historically had the most mobility -- they can pretty easily decide to makes ANYPLACE there legal residence and THAT really hurts Illinois in its foolish quest to ratchet up taxes... The info from Illinois Department of Revenue combined with IRS migration data very clearly shows what is happening -- http://tax.illinois.gov/AboutIdor/Ta...nge-Prelim.pdf

https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stat...data-2014-2015
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Old 06-09-2017, 05:08 PM
 
6,419 posts, read 5,776,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
The link you posted says nothing about the rate of change of poverty in Chicago. It says nothing about whether the 20% of people in Chicago who are poor is up, down, or whatever from some earlier time.
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Old 06-09-2017, 05:10 PM
 
6,419 posts, read 5,776,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
While statista.com is good for some things, the info that correlates income is more readily available from the IRS. That data shows that higher income residents of Illinois are leaving. That makes sense as such folks have historically had the most mobility -- they can pretty easily decide to makes ANYPLACE there legal residence and THAT really hurts Illinois in its foolish quest to ratchet up taxes... The info from Illinois Department of Revenue combined with IRS migration data very clearly shows what is happening -- http://tax.illinois.gov/AboutIdor/Ta...nge-Prelim.pdf

https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stat...data-2014-2015
You have to be either really, really rich or else retired to just pick up and move with no consequences. Most of the relatively well-off people in Chicago or any other city are well off because they have high-paying jobs. So if a lot of prosperous people under the age of 55 or 60 are leaving, that is a serious problem.

I have no evidence of it, just sayin'.
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Old 06-09-2017, 08:13 PM
 
9 posts, read 6,708 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
You have to be either really, really rich or else retired to just pick up and move with no consequences. Most of the relatively well-off people in Chicago or any other city are well off because they have high-paying jobs. So if a lot of prosperous people under the age of 55 or 60 are leaving, that is a serious problem.

I have no evidence of it, just sayin'.
I agree with this. Most people I know who move between cities do so for some combination of work (a better job or exciting opportunity or a better startup/VC environment if that's their thing), wanting a better place to raise kids (better schools, less crime), wanting to be closer to family, because they hate the cold, because they want a more exciting/vibrant city, or because they want a place with lower cost of living.

Of course everyone will weight things in their own way.

To me, Chicago seems like an excellent point on the vibrancy vs cost-of-living curve compared to other major cities. Hopefully it continues to improve in its startup environment.
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Old 06-09-2017, 08:16 PM
 
25,485 posts, read 14,979,352 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavePa View Post
The US Conference of Mayors still sees a BETTER THEN THE NORTHEAST Growth for Chicgoland to come next 30-yrs.

Population Growth in the Next 30 Years (US conference of Mayors study)

METRO............................................. ..... 2016 millions.....2046 # Chg...... % change
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA -------- 20,181 ----- 20,705 ------------ 2.6
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA ----------- 13,347 ------14,863 ----------- 11.4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX. ------------------- 7,246 ------11,383 ----------- 57.1
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX ---------- 6,803 ------10,628 ----------- 56.2
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI ----------------- 9,517 ------10,280 ----------- 8.0
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA -----------------5,804 ------- 8,629 ----------- 48.7
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL ------ 6,090 ------- 8,101 ----------- 33.0
Washington-Arlington-Alex, DC-VA-MD-WV --------6,147 ------- 7,851 ----------- 27.7
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ ----------------------- 4,678 ------- 7,847 ----------- 67.8
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA --------------4,518 --------7,155 ----------- 58.4
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD -- 6,071 ------- 6,309 ----------- 3.9
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA --------------- 4,692 ------- 5,602 ----------- 19.4
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH ----------------- 4,799 ------- 5,328 ----------- 11.0
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ----------------------- 3,804 ------- 4,928 ------------29.5
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI ---------- 3,556 -------4,264 ------------19.9

Taking a broader look, population will grow by over 25% in 127 metro areas, over 50% in 36, and over 70% in 8 over the next 30 years. By 2046, 72 metros will have a population exceeding 1 million, compared to 2016 where only 53 achieved this feat. And by 2046, five metros will have over 10 million people – whereas just 2 were that large 30 years prior.

PDF found through this link and above list.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2017/6/6/...gest-city-2046

There is no reason Chicago's growth will stay more level then not. Even here it is seen as growing more then NYC metro and Philly's. But the Midwest could very well rise again even more and the Sunbelt slow in future decades?

The meteo area will surely see positive growth over the long run. Just very modest compared to everywhere but the Northeast... And that forecast seems reasonable for Chicagoland. The city itself however may bottom out anywhere between 2.2-2.5 million before it stabilizes. Depends how long this black depopulation will go on for, and if the Hispanics population will stop growinh soon. That demographic group certainly has slowed to a trickle compared to the 1990'
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Old 06-09-2017, 09:07 PM
 
Location: NW Seattle
3,301 posts, read 1,680,759 times
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There's really no way to know. Population growth depends on so many factors: crime, taxes, climate, the economy, housing prices, "coolness" factor, the list goes on - and some of these are pretty tough to predict.

If I'm to go with my intuition, though, I unfortunately think these last couple population estimates are a beginning of a long-term revert to sustained population decline. I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago's sunk to around 2.5 or even 2.4 million by 2030.
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Old 06-10-2017, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
6,503 posts, read 6,882,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Apparel View Post
Other cities in the Midwest seem to be growing except Chicago. Detroit and St. Louis could be thrown in there too. What's the issue? Could Chicago continue the decline below 2,000,000 someday?
That's a stretch. Best case is that Chicago replenishes their losses and stays between two and three million. Falling below two million puts Chicago in the territory of cities like Columbus and Indianapolis, which would probably have surpassed one million if that were ever to happen in Chicago.

Things would have to be pretty bad in Chicago for it to fall below 2 million. And the population does go up every other decade. It was up in 2000 and is on par to be up again in 2020. If it were to going to dip past 2 million it would be at 2.5 million by now.

If Chicago were to dip below 2 million, it would probably not happen in our lifetime.

I see Chicago as I do New York City. New York City should have been down to 7 million by now, considering how things were going during the seventies. Instead, the city continues to see growth and only saw a loss on two census, 1960, and 1980. Chicago would have to see losses for several decades before it goes below 2 million.

Someone mentioned that the middle class are leaving. Are Blacks leaving? Are the poor leaving? I don't believe that the economic and development factors that are at play in NYC that are the cause for gentrification are exactly the same as they are in Chicago. I see Chicago similar to cities like DC, Cleveland, or Detroit, where there is some gentrification but the poor, or working class, are still in the metropolitan area (if they aren't in the city proper). NYC appears to be on par to completely remove it's lower classes, which isn't necessarily a good thing because you still need a working class in the city limits for the service economy and other work the rich and middle class are not going to do. I sincerely hope that never happens in Chicago.

Last edited by goofy328; 06-10-2017 at 11:50 AM..
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