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Old 06-11-2017, 06:54 AM
 
23,240 posts, read 12,782,651 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
The meteo area will surely see positive growth over the long run. Just very modest compared to everywhere but the Northeast... And that forecast seems reasonable for Chicagoland. The city itself however may bottom out anywhere between 2.2-2.5 million before it stabilizes. Depends how long this black depopulation will go on for, and if the Hispanics population will stop growinh soon. That demographic group certainly has slowed to a trickle compared to the 1990'
Forecast 20-30 years out is not an exact science.

This was NIPC's forecast for 2030 that they put out in 2000



Quote:

Area name - 2000 – 2030

Northeastern Illinois - 8,091,720 - 10,034,835


County

Cook - 5,376,741 - 5,938,248
DuPage - 904,161 - 1,002,325
Kane - 404,119 - 692,346
Lake - 644,356 - 844,315
McHenry - 260,077 - 449,823
Will - 502,266 - 1,107,778



Municipality

Addison - 35,914 - 38,561
Algonquin - 23,276 - 41,333
Alsip - 19,725 - 22,349
Antioch - 8,788 - 30,594
Arlington Heights - 76,031 - 82,441
Aurora (excl Kendall) - 142,150 - 190,167
Bannockburn - 1,429 - 1,479
Barrington - 10,168 - 10,429
Barrington Hills - 3,915 - 5,060
Bartlett - 36,706 - 43,264
Batavia - 23,866 - 31,402
Beach Park - 10,072 - 16,729
Bedford Park - 574 - 620
Beecher - 2,033 - 20,029
Bellwood - 20,535 - 21,329
Bensenville - 20,703 - 19,048
Berkeley - 5,245 - 5,126
Berwyn - 54,016 - 63,433
Big Rock - NA - 859
Bloomingdale - 21,675 - 28,818
Blue Island - 23,463 - 25,511
Bolingbrook - 56,321 - 88,548
Braidwood - 5,203 - 6,612
Bridgeview - 15,335 - 14,865
Broadview - 8,264 - 8,180
Brookfield - 19,085 - 19,893
Buffalo Grove - 42,909 - 45,258
Bull Valley - 726 - 2,435
Burbank - 27,902 - 26,842
Burlington - 452 - 14,994
Burnham - 4,170 - 4,271
Burr Ridge - 10,408 - 14,500
Calumet City - 39,071 - 39,654
Calumet Park - 8,516 - 8,760
Carol Stream - 40,438 - 41,604
Carpentersville - 30,586 - 39,091
Cary - 15,531 - 22,036
Channahon(Will Only) - 7,235 - 22,231
Chicago - 2,896,016 - 3,260,897
Chicago Heights - 32,776 - 36,282
Chicago Ridge - 14,127 - 13,715
Cicero - 85,616 - 76,857
Clarendon Hills - 7,610 - 8,782
Coal City(Will Only) - 0 - 2
Country Club Hills - 16,169 - 19,139
Countryside - 5,991 - 6,286
Crest Hill - 13,329 - 22,047
Crestwood - 11,251 - 12,801
Crete - 7,346 - 38,786
Crystal Lake - 38,000 - 44,363
Darien - 22,860 - 23,717
Deerfield - 18,420 - 20,391
Deer Park - 3,102 - 3,846
Des Plaines - 58,720 - 60,343
Diamond - 10 - 49
Dixmoor - 3,934 - 4,174
Dolton - 25,614 - 24,433
Downers Grove - 48,724 - 60,153
East Dundee - 2,955 - 7,888
East Hazel Crest - 1,607 - 1,698
Elburn - 2,756 - 21,126
Elgin - 94,487 - 162,416
Elk Grove Village - 34,727 - 36,948
Elmhurst - 42,762 - 43,075
Elmwood Park - 25,405 - 24,260
Elwood - 1,620 - 20,036
Evanston - 74,239 - 80,224
Evergreen Park - 20,821 - 19,742
Flossmoor - 9,301 - 9,949
Ford Heights - 3,456 - 6,441
Forest Park - 15,688 - 15,736
Forest View - 778 - 796
Fox Lake - 9,178 - 12,589
Fox River Grove - 4,862 - 5,542
Frankfort - 10,391 - 67,218
Franklin Park - 19,434 - 19,113
Geneva - 19,515 - 25,480
Gilberts - 1,279 - 6,891
Glencoe - 8,762 - 8,957
Glendale Heights - 31,765 -35,059
Glen Ellyn - 26,999 - 32,291
Glenview - 41,847 - 54,368
Glenwood - 9,000 - 11,367
Godley (Will only) - 594 - 872
Golf - 451 - 445
Grayslake - 18,506 - 24,094
Green Oaks - 3,572 - 4,786
Greenwood - 244 - 3,289
Gurnee - 28,834 - 35,791
Hainesville - 2,129 - 4,118
Hampshire - 2,900 - 20,393
Hanover Park - 38,278 - 37,705
Harvard - 7,996 - 15,247
Harvey - 30,000 - 31,324
Harwood Heights - 8,297 - 8,088
Hawthorn Woods - 6,002 - 15,951
Hazel Crest - 14,816 - 15,786
Hebron - 1,038 - 2,074
Hickory Hills - 13,926 - 13,781
Highland Park - 31,365 - 34,603
Highwood - 4,143 - 3,769
Hillside - 8,155 - 7,775
Hinsdale - 17,349 - 22,000
Hodgkins - 2,134 - 2,137
Hoffman Estates - 49,495 - 54,590
Holiday Hills - 831 - 1,053
Homer Glen - NA - 40,588
Hometown - 4,467 - 4,435
Homewood - 19,543 - 20,469
Huntley - 5,730 - 44,435
Indian Creek - 194 - 211
Indian Head Park - 3,685 - 3,953
Inverness - 6,749 - 7,069
Island Lake - 8,153 - 13,557
Itasca - 8,302 - 10,706
Johnsburg - 5,391 - 23,024
Joliet(Will Only) - 105,597 - 136,525
Justice - 12,193 - 14,726
Kenilworth - 2,494 - 2,383
Kildeer - 3,460 - 5,069
La Grange - 15,608 - 17,848
La Grange Park - 13,295 - 14,101
Lake Barrington - 4,757 - 5,695
Lake Bluff - 6,056 - 10,424
Lake Forest - 20,059 - 21,933
Lake in the Hills - 23,152 - 30,532
Lakemoor - 2,788 - 23,055
Lake Villa - 5,864 - 16,546
Lakewood - 2,337 - 5,922
Lake Zurich - 18,104 - 20,571
Lansing - 28,332 - 31,428
Lemont - 13,098 - 30,209
Libertyville - 20,742- 21,115
Lily Lake - 825 - 1,543
Lincolnshire - 6,108 - 8,284
Lincolnwood - 12,359 - 12,776
Lindenhurst - 12,539 - 19,843
Lisle - 21,182 - 26,097
Lockport - 15,191 - 36,224
Lombard - 42,322 - 50,618
Long Grove - 6,735 - 10,846
Lynwood - 7,377 - 15,690
Lyons - 10,255 - 11,038
McCook - 254 - 284
McCullom Lake - 1,038 - 1,997
McHenry - 21,501 - 48,502
Manhattan - 3,330 - 39,750
Maple Park - 652 - 1,412
Marengo - 6,355 - 18,213
Markham - 12,620 - 14,322
Matteson - 12,928 - 37,117
Maywood - 26,987 - 25,689
Melrose Park - 23,171 - 22,144
Merrionette Park - 1,999 - 2,110
Mettawa - 367 - 1,426
Midlothian - 14,315 - 16,577
Minooka(Will Only) - 1,388 - 5,372
Mokena - 14,583 - 27,065
Monee - 2,924 - 47,804
Montgomery (Kane Only) - 3,855 - 11,323
Morton Grove - 22,451 - 28,113
Mount Prospect - 56,265 - 58,049
Mundelein - 30,935 - 34,126
Naperville - 128,358 - 168,096
New Lenox - 17,771 - 101,725
Niles - 30,068 - 32,881
Norridge - 14,582 - 14,384
North Aurora - 10,585 - 20,694
North Barrington - 2,918 - 3,542
Northbrook - 33,435 - 40,187
North Chicago - 35,918 - 43,747
Northfield - 5,389 - 5,420
Northlake - 11,878 - 10,951
North Riverside - 6,688 - 7,177
Oak Brook - 8,702 - 9,613
Oakbrook Terrace - 2,300 - 4,447
Oak Forest - 28,051 - 33,040
Oak Lawn - 55,245 - 59,522
Oak Park - 52,524 - 54,280
Oakwood Hills - 2,194 - 4,263
Old Mill Creek - 251 - 5,237
Olympia Fields - 4,732 - 7,344
Orland Hills - 6,779 - 7,474
Orland Park - 51,077 - 70,713
Palatine - 65,479 - 72,365
Palos Heights - 11,260 - 14,304
Palos Hills - 17,665 - 18,110
Palos Park - 4,689 - 7,951
Park City - 6,637 - 6,956
Park Forest - 23,462 - 26,246
Park Ridge - 37,775 - 36,620
Peotone - 3,385 - 15,611
Phoenix - 2,157 - 2,769
Pingree Grove - 124 - 16,908
Plainfield (Will Only) - 13,038 - 65,744
Port Barrington - 788 - 2,666
Posen - 4,730 - 5,549
Prairie Grove - 960 - 12,076
Prospect Heights - 17,081 - 16,099
Richmond - 1,091 - 15,059
Richton Park - 12,533 - 36,294
Ringwood - 471 - 1,890
Riverdale - 15,055 - 16,225
River Forest - 11,635 - 11,630
River Grove - 10,668 - 10,271
Riverside - 8,895 - 9,337
Riverwoods - 3,843 - 3,981
Robbins - 6,635 - 7,319
Rockdale - 1,888 - 1,882
Rolling Meadows - 24,604 - 26,351
Romeoville - 21,153 - 43,883
Roselle - 23,115 - 26,784
Rosemont - 4,224 - 4,055
Round Lake - 5,842 - 27,338
Round Lake Beach - 25,859 - 29,900
Round Lake Heights - 1,347 - 2,552
Round Lake Park - 6,038 - 9,954
St. Charles - 27,896 - 36,671
Sauk Village - 10,411 - 18,209
Schaumburg - 75,386 - 83,284
Schiller Park - 11,850 - 11,579
Shorewood - 7,686 - 38,398
Skokie - 63,348 - 65,523
Sleepy Hollow - 3,553 - 4,090
South Barrington - 3,760 - 4,657
South Chicago Heights - 3,970 - 4,602
South Elgin - 16,100 - 27,567
South Holland - 22,147 - 23,353
Spring Grove - 3,880 - 18,523
Steger - 9,682 - 12,586
Stickney - 6,148 - 6,230
Stone Park - 5,127 - 4,353
Streamwood - 36,407 - 41,852
Sugar Grove - 3,909 - 62,742
Summit - 10,637 - 9,541
Symerton - 106 - 1,602
Third Lake - 1,355 - 1,395
Thornton - 2,582 - 2,466
Tinley Park - 48,401 - 63,889
Tower Lakes - 1,310 - 1,442
Trout Valley - 599 - 667
Union - 576 - 1,254
University Park - 6,662 - 34,571
Vernon Hills - 20,120 - 23,848
Villa Park - 22,075 - 22,991
Virgil - 266 - 1,270
Volo - 180 - 13,686
Wadsworth - 3,083 - 11,848
Warrenville - 13,363 - 15,007
Wauconda - 9,448 - 25,653
Waukegan - 87,901 - 92,714
Wayne - 2,137 - 4,754
Westchester - 16,824 - 18,511
West Chicago - 23,469 - 41,632
West Dundee - 5,428 - 11,364
Western Springs - 12,493 - 11,831
Westmont - 24,554 - 27,000
Wheaton - 55,416 - 61,960
Wheeling - 34,496 - 38,159
Willowbrook - 8,967 - 14,567
Willow Springs - 5,027 - 9,913
Wilmette - 27,651 - 28,263
Wilmington - 5,134 - 23,333
Winfield - 8,718 -15,242
Winnetka - 12,419 - 11,491
Winthrop Harbor - 6,670 - 13,306
Wonder Lake - 1,345 - 2,715
Wood Dale - 13,535 - 13,869
Woodridge - 30,934 - 42,889
Woodstock - 20,151 - 30,522
Worth - 11,047 - 11,136
Zion - 22,866 - 32,242


Chicago was forecast to have a population of 3.261 million in 2030... They were far off, and I highly doubt that the city will even have 2.5 million in 2030 (13 years from now). The 6 county area population was way too high as well. They estimated the 6 county area to be over 10 million by 2030, but the 2016 estimate is about 8,365,000

 
Old 06-11-2017, 08:34 AM
 
Location: In the heights
22,149 posts, read 23,676,300 times
Reputation: 11625
Chicago will be at 3 million in 2030 census
 
Old 06-11-2017, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Historic West End
4,220 posts, read 3,589,368 times
Reputation: 4025
I think people care more about the quality of life and not population ranking. However that does mean less revenue perhaps.
 
Old 06-12-2017, 08:24 AM
 
28,441 posts, read 71,078,350 times
Reputation: 18396
Default Why it matters...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlwarrior View Post
I think people care more about the quality of life and not population ranking. However that does mean less revenue perhaps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Forecast 20-30 years out is not an exact science.

This was NIPC's forecast for 2030 that they put out in 2000


Chicago was forecast to have a population of 3.261 million in 2030... They were far off, and I highly doubt that the city will even have 2.5 million in 2030 (13 years from now). The 6 county area population was way too high as well. They estimated the 6 county area to be over 10 million by 2030, but the 2016 estimate is about 8,365,000
Although the real estate melt down of 2007-8 may seem like ancient history to some posters here the FACT is that the devastating effect of that incident truly did change the course of many thing in not just Chicago or even Illinois or the US but really forced a global rethink of many things that previously were "a given" in most political / economic circles.

The scars of the melt down has driven MANY potential home owners permanently out of the market -- this is especially true of the lower income folks that had been attractive to both lenders who thought PMI was a great way to keep things square in case of default. The radical shift from lenders, both private and quasi-governmental, AS WELL AS the many academic and governmental type economics who once hoped that things like HUD and the systems of lenders backed by the government (Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac) would be a positive force in increasing homeownership in distressed areas have had to completely rethink how both urban areas and the sorts of rural-ish rust belt type will evolve. It is not rosy. The DEBT transferred to the government during the melt down was HUGE -- literally TRILLIONS that are now fattening up those that provided emergency financing but more importantly that money is NOT be using for things that increase the PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY of the economy. When folks see photographs from the 1950s of BOOMING shopping districts in places like Englewood it seems to some like "science fiction" but the reality was that lots of firms had plenty of jobs for folks whose livelihoods were part of the post WWII recovery -- https://assets.dnainfo.com/photo/201...581/larger.png Sadly there has been NO similar "recovery" in the inner city or rust belt for decades...

That means that as Chicago and the region continue to be laggards the TAX BURDEN will increase on those left behind. It further means that areas that are growing much faster and truly will need more Federal dollars for infrastructure will get them. Even more devastatingly the APPORTIONMENT of the US Congress and for that matter the Electoral College will continue to shift AWAY from traditional states that once were politically important and toward booming areas...

So you can try to dismiss the importance of these decline but doing so will only make the decline happen faster. It would be better if folks took a more serious look at the factors that continue to drive folks from Chicago -- failing to hold politicians accountable for only taking care of insiders would be high on that list!
 
Old 06-12-2017, 09:34 AM
 
11,175 posts, read 22,381,444 times
Reputation: 10924
I can't speak to income levels, although I have seen here and there that Chicago is gaining a lot at the top and losing a lot towards the middle and lower levels.

There's one demographic indicator that you can really point to as far as population changes and that's race. The white, latino and Asian demographics are all growing to some degree, and there's massive population loss among the black subset in the city.

It's notable that the white population is growing again, although fairly slowly, as it's losing elderly whites and gaining younger whites so the overall change is pretty slow.

The real news is the huge decrease in the black population, representing effectively the entire loss from 2000 to 2016, and being so high that it completely offsets all other gains by Asians, Latinos and Whites. Those south and west side communities are going to be to the brink of not being able to stabilize and take care of themselves if they keep emptying out like this. They've lost hundreds of thousands in only the last 15 years. The city has gone from 43% black to 31%.
 
Old 06-12-2017, 10:01 AM
 
3,223 posts, read 1,557,162 times
Reputation: 2353
I hope Chicago continues to fight the odds of gloom and doom. Some --- never saw a negative bestowed on the city they did not like. But Chicago has defied these in many areas. No one doubts the Southside of the 50s was vibrant neighborhoods with local retail vibrant in every neighborhood.

But the Great Black migration from the South occurred as manufacturing was to enter its Great decline and White-flight began and it did effect the city tremendously as with EVERY Northern large city. No Big northern city escaped it. But Boston did escape the worst for sure as a major University city.

Investment in the city continues as a reality. Black-Flight does as a reality too. No one can boast that Chicago has the worst Real Estate issues among our largest cities by far. For the elite to highly educated professionals? Chicago is more of a bargain.

Englewood bought up of the 50s was true of the vast majority of the city then. The reality 60s 70s 80s was another story. If you could compare Google street-views from the 70s even 80s of Englewood and other declined South and West side neighborhoods? --- What would be the comparisons.

Since I my never visit Englewood on visits. I merely can use street-views since I've seen them used against Chicago and a recent one a European used to show a Chicago neighborhood in the hood to portray a Ghetto. The street-view was merely scenes of boarded up abandoned homes.

Looking at the street-view given and looking over the block, intersection and down the block and street and curb. So I replied to that use of street-view. I said look at the rest of the housing still looking taken care of, the grass areas as is pretty standard in Chicago between sidewalks and street too as looking maintained. Yards visible maintained an no debris on the sidewalks, curbs or intersections.

The city most likely boarded up the homes (some cities leave windowless buildings show decay till they fall down). These streets probably looked MUCH WORST in the 70s 80s. Areas of blight not removed if severe (though Englewood was not the worst to need to remove blight).

You see more debris strewn streets in LA's ghettos and homeless. Yes poverty is real in Chicago. But they are not slums by far. CRIME is-- the greatest scourge that the city fails at. With the Gangland killings especially. But in services these areas are still maintained.

I have no doubt as Black-Flight continues and if gangland activity gets quenched more? The Southside will rise again. IF CHICAGO WAS IN THE SUNBELT??? It would be THEE CITY BOOMING THROUGHOUT. It has all the bones to be that.

As others point out? Chicago is a changing drastically in demographics buy a large out-migration of African Americans. Some cities it's very little like Philly? It merely went from a Plurality of Black residents to a Plurality of White residents.

Last edited by DavePa; 06-12-2017 at 10:12 AM..
 
Old 06-14-2017, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Saint John, IN
11,043 posts, read 3,994,985 times
Reputation: 13559
Chicago is running people out with their insane taxes! Cook County especially, raising property taxes by 10% in Chicago and 6.5% in the suburbs! People (all races) have had enough and they're leaving!


Cook County residents' property taxes going up, especially in Chicago | abc7chicago.com
 
Old 06-15-2017, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Sweet Home Chicago!
5,184 posts, read 3,721,661 times
Reputation: 6093
Quote:
Originally Posted by CGab View Post
Chicago is running people out with their insane taxes! Cook County especially, raising property taxes by 10% in Chicago and 6.5% in the suburbs! People (all races) have had enough and they're leaving!


Cook County residents' property taxes going up, especially in Chicago | abc7chicago.com
I know some are getting hit hard in cook county due to the pension issues, but my taxes (Kane County) went up by $11 this year and will go down by about $1,000 next year due to my appeal.

And it appears that Chicago is becoming more of a place for the rich, those who really don't care about taxes or use them to their advantage as write-offs. For example, the 406 Condos in this new skyscraper start at $1M and top off around $18M and they have already secured ~$200M in sales while it's being built!

https://www.vistatowerchicago.com/

https://chicago.curbed.com/2017/5/17...ruction-permit

Last edited by flamadiddle; 06-15-2017 at 08:31 AM..
 
Old 06-15-2017, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Saint John, IN
11,043 posts, read 3,994,985 times
Reputation: 13559
Quote:
Originally Posted by flamadiddle View Post
I know some are getting hit hard in cook county due to the pension issues, but my taxes (Kane County) went up by $11 this year and will go down by about $1,000 next year due to my appeal.

And it appears that Chicago is becoming more of a place for the rich, those who really don't care about taxes or use them to their advantage as write-offs. For example, the 406 Condos in this new skyscraper start at $1M and top off around $18M.

https://www.vistatowerchicago.com/

https://chicago.curbed.com/2017/5/17...ruction-permit


Agreed, but everyone who owns a property in Cook County will be getting hit and not all of them are rich. Actually I would say the majority of them are not and not living in million dollar homes. And unless people are moving to Kane county or further South in Illinois (way further) they will also be seeing a property tax hike. My old neighborhood (North Plainfield, Will County) also hit with a big increase! My mother who lives in Cook county just listed her home and is moving out of the state.
 
Old 06-15-2017, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Sweet Home Chicago!
5,184 posts, read 3,721,661 times
Reputation: 6093
Quote:
Originally Posted by CGab View Post
Agreed, but everyone who owns a property in Cook County will be getting hit and not all of them are rich. Actually I would say the majority of them are not and not living in million dollar homes. And unless people are moving to Kane county or further South in Illinois (way further) they will also be seeing a property tax hike. My old neighborhood (North Plainfield, Will County) also hit with a big increase! My mother who lives in Cook county just listed her home and is moving out of the state.
I agree and understand why many are leaving. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens to the Chicago area in the next 20+ years.
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