Chicago 2020 census predictions (Elgin, Cicero, Berwyn: neighborhoods, new construction, school districts)

[OyCrumbler]

What are your predictions for Chicago's official 2020 census?

The last official census was 2010 and put the population at 2,695,598.

The last estimate was for 2016 and put the population at 2,704,958.

In terms of race and ethnicity, the current estimates have all save for the black demographic seeing slight increases. Across all races and ethnicities, we are seeing a bump in those with college education and median income.

My guess is that the 2020 census will out Chicago at about 2,740,598 though the actual count will probably see a sizable undercount of the actual numbers as people with questionable or illegal residency status within Chicago will be even more reluctant to be counted in the census given the political climate.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

... though the actual count will probably see a sizable undercount of the actual numbers as people with questionable or illegal residency status within Chicago will be even more reluctant to be counted in the census given the political climate.

I agree with your guess. I don't necessarily agree about the undercount. IIRC, in 2010 undocumented Chicago residents were actively discouraged from participating by latino "leadership" for political reasons I never understood. Hopefully that doesn't happen in 2020, and will offset any additional fears this time around.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by emathias

I agree with your guess. I don't necessarily agree about the undercount. IIRC, in 2010 undocumented Chicago residents were actively discouraged from participating by latino "leadership" for political reasons I never understood. Hopefully that doesn't happen in 2020, and will offset any additional fears this time around.

Census numbers directly impact federal funding. I don't see what the incentive would be to underestimate them. If anything, trying to count as many lower-income people as possible will ensure our cash-challenged City gets as much money from the Fed as possible.

Pilsen and Little Village lost huge population from 2000 to 2010 per the Census. So I suppose where that's where the conspiracy theory might stem from. After all, poor people voluntarily leaving the City to move to picket fence suburbia doesn't fit the tried n' true narrative of gentrifiers forcing people out. Truthfully, however, I think that the Hispanic population has simply been shifting to the western suburbs on its own. Some long-entrenched political interests might not like that but that's what's been happening..

And if that's a ruse, then it's a pretty elaborate and coordinated one. School population in those City neighborhoods has been declining while enrollment in Berwyn and Cicero schools, for example, has been increasing. So the CPS and those suburban school districts would have to be in on it too.

[knitgirl]

I worked the 2010 Census while living in Elgin. It was a really interesting experience. I speak a little Spanish and interviewed some people who may or may not have been here illegally. I have no idea. I always made a point of telling them that participation was very important in getting proper funding for the schools, etc. I was surprised at how willing people were, and how nice. They'd invite me in, give me water. I even got a popsicle from one family.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by knitgirl

I worked the 2010 Census while living in Elgin. It was a really interesting experience. I speak a little Spanish and interviewed some people who may or may not have been here illegally. I have no idea. I always made a point of telling them that participation was very important in getting proper funding for the schools, etc. I was surprised at how willing people were, and how nice. They'd invite me in, give me water. I even got a popsicle from one family.

I always thought that if I was between jobs during any census that I'd try to work for one. I think it'd be a fascinating part of American civic life.

[knitgirl]

Originally Posted by emathias

I always thought that if I was between jobs during any census that I'd try to work for one. I think it'd be a fascinating part of American civic life.

It really was. I'm an introvert and talking to strangers is not that easy for me, but it was a really worthwhile experience. Most middle class educated people have very little experience dealing with people outside their social class and I was a little apprehensive, but I met some really lovely people who were trying the best they could for their kids.

[OyCrumbler]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Census numbers directly impact federal funding. I don't see what the incentive would be to underestimate them. If anything, trying to count as many lower-income people as possible will ensure our cash-challenged City gets as much money from the Fed as possible.

Pilsen and Little Village lost huge population from 2000 to 2010 per the Census. So I suppose where that's where the conspiracy theory might stem from. After all, poor people voluntarily leaving the City to move to picket fence suburbia doesn't fit the tried n' true narrative of gentrifiers forcing people out. Truthfully, however, I think that the Hispanic population has simply been shifting to the western suburbs on its own. Some long-entrenched political interests might not like that but that's what's been happening..

And if that's a ruse, then it's a pretty elaborate and coordinated one. School population in those City neighborhoods has been declining while enrollment in Berwyn and Cicero schools, for example, has been increasing. So the CPS and those suburban school districts would have to be in on it too.

It was completely based on fear that somehow the information from the census was going to be used by immigration to come after people. It was a nationwide trend in major cities, and my guess is that it's going to be even more impactful now especially as it's not unthinkable that this current administration may actually do so.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

It was completely based on fear that somehow the information from the census was going to be used by immigration to come after people. It was a nationwide trend in major cities, and my guess is that it's going to be even more impactful now especially as it's not unthinkable that this current administration may actually do so.

No, I don't think it's unthinkable that this administration might enforce the law. But I think the Census takers make it clear that the information acquired will not be used for that purpose.

And since when do our noble and altruistic local politicians care more about people than money? LOL! There might have been some natural fear not to talk to Census takers among illegal immigrants but I don't think there was a politician-led conspiracy to protect the poor little people. Please.

[OyCrumbler]

Originally Posted by BRU67

No, I don't think it's unthinkable that this administration might enforce the law. But I think the Census takers make it clear that the information acquired will not be used for that purpose.

And since when do our noble and altruistic local politicians care more about people than money? LOL! There might have been some natural fear not to talk to Census takers among illegal immigrants but I don't think there was a politician-led conspiracy to protect the poor little people. Please.

I agree it’s stupid, but it’s not necessarily just the political leaders, but community leaders in general who also advocated for not registering in the census. While I strongly disagreed with that because the census results tie into political power for the community (and the city as a whole) as weel as funding, I can understand the fear under this current administration.

[MikeMak27]

My guess is the census will have 2,715,000 people in the city. They will obviously miss quite a few homeless, illegal immigrants, and solo folks new to the neighborhood.
That means there will need to be 54,300 people in each ward. If I had to guess, there will be 150,000 fewer black people, meaning there will be 2 fewer black alderman. There should be 3 fewer in reality, but due to their political power and helping rahm win reelection by a hair in 2019, he will only allow one to be reduced from both the south and west sides. That means 4 on the west side and 12 on the south side. If I had to guess, 1 of the 5 black alderman on the west side won't run for reelection so that will make drawing the wards easier. The 27th ward has had a massive amount of new construction, along with White and Asian residents. There is no way it will be black majority by 2020. As a result, Burnett's ward will lose all of old town, river west, and noble square. I could see him picking up parts of Ukrainian village instead to make it a cleaner looking district.
For the south side, whichever black alderman has been a thorn the most in Rahm's side will see their ward disappear. If I had to guess it will be Cochran or Sawyer. A new Latino ward will be created on the far southwest side based near the Midway, ashburn, and Woodlawn neighborhood's. The other lost black ward will head to the west loop / south loop area. The 11th ward based in Bridgeport will become heavily Asian by shedding Canaryville and picking up the rapidly growing Chines areas of Bronzeville.