What will happen to the south and west sides (Chicago: 2013, high crime)

[lepoisson]

What do you think will happen to some of the south and west side neighborhoods in 5, 10, 15, 20, 50 years?

I can see the ones closest to the loop becoming gentrified, especially the west side neighborhoods. However, I've been told that "East Garfield Park is the next up and coming neighborhood" has been a saying for years, but it never seems to comes true.

But I wonder about neighborhoods like Roseland which are far from the loop, far from CTA, and keep losing population. Will these neighborhoods be completely abandoned in 20 years or will they turn into a "suburb in the city" like Beverly and Jefferson Park?

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by lepoisson

What do you think will happen to some of the south and west side neighborhoods in 5, 10, 15, 20, 50 years?

I can see the ones closest to the loop becoming gentrified, especially the west side neighborhoods. However, I've been told that "East Garfield Park is the next up and coming neighborhood" has been a saying for years, but it never seems to comes true.

But I wonder about neighborhoods like Roseland which are far from the loop, far from CTA, and keep losing population. Will these neighborhoods be completely abandoned in 20 years or will they turn into a "suburb in the city" like Beverly and Jefferson Park?

Here's an interesting paper on crime in Chicago since 1965...

https://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/...ngpaper023.pdf

You will note that with a couple of exceptions, most neighborhoods which had high crime back then have high crime now. Crime is relatively lower in most areas compared to the peaks in the early/mid 1970s and mid/80s to early 1990s, but the high crime areas remain the high crime areas. So if we follow the natural course of events, I think the south and west sides will largely resemble what they are today 20 years from now.

I do, however, think that the "back to the city" movement will alter the boundaries of the affluent areas, though I think these changes will occur in "safe" working class areas like South Lawndale, McKinley Park, and Lower West Side, or formerly rough neighborhoods which are already seeing gentrification like Humboldt Park and the Near West Side, Unless there is some massive urban renewal project, or some huge macro level change in the economy, that is probably how it will play out.

[lepoisson]

Originally Posted by BRU67

So if we follow the natural course of events, I think the south and west sides will largely resemble what they are today 20 years from now.

Many of the "bad" neighborhoods used to be middle class or wealthy neighborhoods.

The population of these neighborhoods keeps falling. Will the neighborhoods eventually be completely abandoned?

[TBideon]

All the bad areas used to range from working class to wealthy. Story of America's inner cities.

As for OP's post, the Hispanic neighborhoods will stabilize and improve, with soithwest neighborhoods becoming more Asian i.e. Brighton Park, McKinley Park, Back of the Yards, Gage Park. And most of the black neighborhoods will continue their decades-long collapse, with some improvements in those most adjacent to the lake

Of course all this barring massive, unexpected population growth.

[OyCrumbler]

the precipitous population drops in several neighborhoods have stabilized at this point, and the population in lots of these parts is quite low which means that a pretty small influx of people and development can probably change the character of a neighborhood rapidly. For the same distance / travel time from the Loop, the safer working class neighborhoods will have people going in first, but I don't think you'll have, for example, Gage Park seeing more gentrification than Bronzeville or East Garfield Park. My guess for East Garfield Park being pretty solidly and visibly in the midst of gentrification would be several years after the Damen Green Line stop opens.

[WestSideMillennial]

Originally Posted by TBideon

All the bad areas used to range from working class to wealthy. Story of America's inner cities.

As for OP's post, the Hispanic neighborhoods will stabilize and improve, with soithwest neighborhoods becoming more Asian i.e. Brighton Park, McKinley Park, Back of the Yards, Gage Park. And most of the black neighborhoods will continue their decades-long collapse, with some improvements in those most adjacent to the lake

Of course all this barring massive, unexpected population growth.

You really think Asians will move further south and West to Gage Park? What about only further south to Fuller Park?

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by lepoisson

Many of the "bad" neighborhoods used to be middle class or wealthy neighborhoods.

The population of these neighborhoods keeps falling. Will the neighborhoods eventually be completely abandoned?

They'll definitely continue to depopulate, though I don't know about abandoned. Austin went from a peak of 138k in 1980 to 98k by 2010. And that was one of the more "stable" ones. East Garfield Park went from 70k in 1950 to a mere 20k in 2010, though the decline between 2000 and 2010 was only about 1.5%, which would imply it has depopulated as much as it's going to. Englewood went from a peak of over 97k in 1960 to just 30k in 2010, taking into account a near 10k population loss between 2000 and 2010 alone.

[andrew61]

Don't know how far this will go, or whether I'd call this "gentrification" just yet, but here's something going on in Englewood that surprised me when I read about it recently:

Millennials buy Englewood homes, help transform neighborhood | abc7chicago.com

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by andrew61

Don't know how far this will go, or whether I'd call this "gentrification" just yet, but here's something going on in Englewood that surprised me when I read about it recently:

Millennials buy Englewood homes, help transform neighborhood | abc7chicago.com

I'd call it making a statement, and probably not indicative of anything beyond the will of two individuals. I admire their principles but I'd bet dimes to dollars that there weren't too many in their same demographic in the neighborhood. Englewood was only 0.34% white as of the 2010 Census (about 104 out of 30,654 people).

I'd be very curious to see if they're still there. Anyone know?

[WestSideMillennial]

Originally Posted by TBideon

All the bad areas used to range from working class to wealthy. Story of America's inner cities.

As for OP's post, the Hispanic neighborhoods will stabilize and improve, with soithwest neighborhoods becoming more Asian i.e. Brighton Park, McKinley Park, Back of the Yards, Gage Park. And most of the black neighborhoods will continue their decades-long collapse, with some improvements in those most adjacent to the lake

Of course all this barring massive, unexpected population growth.

You really think Asians will move further away south and West to Gage Park? What about only further south but close proximity to Fuller Park?