West loop construction? (Chicago, Sterling, Fulton: leasing, purchase, landlords)

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by BRU67

WIthout the Loop, I would pick Riverdale over EGP. Half the money (at least) and you still have public transportation via the Metra, and the crime is much lower. Amenities available in nearby Homewood and Flossmoor.

If no one has to go to the Loop anymore, or only has to go once a week, I'm going there and getting more value for my money. EGP will experience a huge market correction if that happens. As in 50% value loss, or more.

I guess it defends what you define as incredibly cheap. EGP is more expensive than Berwyn now, so I do not consider it to be incredibly cheap. But I suppose if you're comparing it to Logan Square or Bucktown it is cheap. Those two also ain't gonna be doing so hot if the work from home comes to pass. The people who can afford to live there can afford to move to an upscale suburb and not after worry about carjackings and their central business districts getting looted every time there is a police shooting.

People, especially young people, just don't move to neighborhoods because it's proximity to the loop or work. Logan Square is further from the Loop than Bridgeport and Mckinley Park, yet it's gentrified at a much faster rate. Avondale is way hotter than Bridgeport and Mckinley Park and it's further. I was in West Loop last summer and it was happening and packed. Few of the people there were for work. Area just east of EGP, Near West Side has had dramatic changes in the last decade. Neighboring Ukranian Village and Humboldt Park have also gone through gentrification. Riverdale if anything is getting worse. It's surrounded by hood and those hoods are getting worse. I wouldn't be surprsied if Riverdale and the areas surrounding it surpass EGP in crime in the next decade. On top of that its in the middle of nowhere. Nobody, and I mean nobody goes there as a destination.

[dtcbnd03]

EGP is also much more likely to experience accelerated property appreciation due to the fact prices are so low and the spillover effect from West Loop. Cash flows are king but property appreciation can minimize risk and boost ROI numbers significantly.

[BRU67]

Gee, I sure hope you two are right. I will be the happiest man in the world if so, lol! Everybody invested in the City, from homeowner to business owner, should be concerned.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

People, especially young people, just don't move to neighborhoods because it's proximity to the loop or work. Logan Square is further from the Loop than Bridgeport and Mckinley Park, yet it's gentrified at a much faster rate. Avondale is way hotter than Bridgeport and Mckinley Park and it's further. I was in West Loop last summer and it was happening and packed. Few of the people there were for work. Area just east of EGP, Near West Side has had dramatic changes in the last decade. Neighboring Ukranian Village and Humboldt Park have also gone through gentrification. Riverdale if anything is getting worse. It's surrounded by hood and those hoods are getting worse. I wouldn't be surprsied if Riverdale and the areas surrounding it surpass EGP in crime in the next decade. On top of that its in the middle of nowhere. Nobody, and I mean nobody goes there as a destination.

African Americans have been fleeing the worst neighborhoods of Chicago and going down there for better schools and perceived safety for years. That has led to massive demographic changes. That shows no signs of slowing and has been speading out into NWI.

[raleightransplant]

Hybrid work life will be the future. It's all hard to predict, but there are couple reasons I think it plays out this way.

People love remote work in 2022 (including me). That said---Let another 3-5 years go by, and see how stir-crazy people get at scale. Not to say anything about mental health issues, isolation, etc. I think of young people here too---People in their 20s starting their careers, want to and need to actually meet new people. Building genuine connections. This also goes beyond the workplace to after-work socializing, meeting up with co-workers and their friends, etc. I could be wrong here, but by and large we as humans tend to want what we don't have. Once remote is normalized and stale, I'd expect a portion of the population to actually burn out on it. Not everyone loves their home situation as well...so there's that Hybrid gives people acknowledgement that INDEED their quality of life went up with being able to be at home more/less commuting, but also realistic in terms of long-term sustainability. I'm on a hybrid now, and it sits right with me...better quality of life and also the chance to socialize again a bit. I can do laundry on a Wednesday, and go to a summer concert downtown after work the next day...perfect.

Additionally--I think employee loyalty will become a factor (already an issue for years in the tech space), and something that will only become more an issue when you're fully remote, and potentially not fully invested in a firm or opportunity. I'm less sure on this aspect. It just seems that if you took a job during COVID, and have met people twice in person since starting--you're simply going to be less inclined to stick around. Again, not sure how that plays out but guessing that would be a problem in a long-term 100% remote society.

If 100% remote continues, we'll see cities bleed people to smaller communities. I mean what's the point if you can find exactly the same amenities in smaller communities. Probably good in the short term for those places that have bled talent for years, but I don't think it's sustainable.

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by raleightransplant

Hybrid work life will be the future. It's all hard to predict, but there are couple reasons I think it plays out this way.

People love remote work in 2022 (including me). That said---Let another 3-5 years go by, and see how stir-crazy people get at scale. Not to say anything about mental health issues, isolation, etc. I think of young people here too---People in their 20s starting their careers, want to and need to actually meet new people. Building genuine connections. This also goes beyond the workplace to after-work socializing, meeting up with co-workers and their friends, etc. I could be wrong here, but by and large we as humans tend to want what we don't have. Once remote is normalized and stale, I'd expect a portion of the population to actually burn out on it. Not everyone loves their home situation as well...so there's that Hybrid gives people acknowledgement that INDEED their quality of life went up with being able to be at home more/less commuting, but also realistic in terms of long-term sustainability. I'm on a hybrid now, and it sits right with me...better quality of life and also the chance to socialize again a bit. I can do laundry on a Wednesday, and go to a summer concert downtown after work the next day...perfect.

Additionally--I think employee loyalty will become a factor (already an issue for years in the tech space), and something that will only become more an issue when you're fully remote, and potentially not fully invested in a firm or opportunity. I'm less sure on this aspect. It just seems that if you took a job during COVID, and have met people twice in person since starting--you're simply going to be less inclined to stick around. Again, not sure how that plays out but guessing that would be a problem in a long-term 100% remote society.

If 100% remote continues, we'll see cities bleed people to smaller communities. I mean what's the point if you can find exactly the same amenities in smaller communities. Probably good in the short term for those places that have bled talent for years, but I don't think it's sustainable.

Middle aged and older people will move to smaller communities but I don't see young people doing that. Even when young people move to big cities they move to hot areas. I don't see tons young transplants moving to or even hanging out in Mt. Greenwood or Garfield Ridge. Now go to West Loop or Pilsen and it's a different story.

[raleightransplant]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

Middle aged and older people will move to smaller communities but I don't see young people doing that. Even when young people move to big cities they move to hot areas. I don't see tons young transplants moving to or even hanging out in Mt. Greenwood or Garfield Ridge. Now go to West Loop or Pilsen and it's a different story.

I agree. I'm more talking about smaller (mid-sized) US cities. Even ten to twenty years ago, if you wanted great food, drink, trends--you had to go to a NYC, Chicago, LA, etc. Those were the trend setters. Not the case now. In an ever more interconnected and globalized world, smaller cities offer attractive qualities for young people. And especially if they are outdoorsy like a Denver or Austin. I mean Milwaukee and Detroit are cool cities drawing young people now. I never would have imagined saying that in 2012.

[IronWright]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

I wonder how much of West Loop construction is office space? And why are they building new office buildings when there's so much downtown office vacancy? Are the rehab costs more expensive than new construction?

Tishman Speyer has just purchased 850 W. Washington where the horrible "Auto Spa" is located for an 'office-project.' I've seen different metrics assert different findings but most sources claim Fulton Market is either at the top or near it for office growth. This particular article claims Fulton Market is the "Fastest-Growing Urban Office-Hub in the U.S."

https://www.costar.com/article/87488...-fulton-market

Boston Consulting Group is moving their headquarters to Fulton Market in Sterling Bay's 360 N. Green which has been redesigned and made 150' taller bringing it to 425'.


Much of the proposals/construction in Fulton Market is being driven by the removal of the ban on residential north of Lake... LG Development is breaking ground on 210 N. Aberdeen in the spring.

19-Stories - 239' - 414 Residential-Units


People believe Chicago is stagnant while the coasts and Sub-Belt enjoy all the press for growth. This type of expansion anywhere else would receive constant coverage/praise. Fulton Market is transitioning into Chicago's premiere urban neighborhood and will provide a significant western wing to the skyline.

[Justabystander]

Originally Posted by IronWright

Tishman Speyer has just purchased 850 W. Washington where the horrible "Auto Spa" is located for an 'office-project.' I've seen different metrics assert different findings but most sources claim Fulton Market is either at the top or near it for office growth. This particular article claims Fulton Market is the "Fastest-Growing Urban Office-Hub in the U.S."

https://www.costar.com/article/87488...-fulton-market

Boston Consulting Group is moving their headquarters to Fulton Market in Sterling Bay's 360 N. Green which has been redesigned and made 150' taller bringing it to 425'.


Much of the proposals/construction in Fulton Market is being driven by the removal of the ban on residential north of Lake... LG Development is breaking ground on 210 N. Aberdeen in the spring.

19-Stories - 239' - 414 Residential-Units


People believe Chicago is stagnant while the coasts and Sub-Belt enjoy all the press for growth. This type of expansion anywhere else would receive constant coverage/praise. Fulton Market is transitioning into Chicago's premiere urban neighborhood and will provide a significant western wing to the skyline.

Thanks for these updates. When I drive downtown, I see all this new construction going on. Yet on CD threads, even though the only cities that really had new construction of towers lately to a great extent are NYC, Chicago and Miami, you would never know Chicago is in the game.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by IronWright

Tishman Speyer has just purchased 850 W. Washington where the horrible "Auto Spa" is located for an 'office-project.' I've seen different metrics assert different findings but most sources claim Fulton Market is either at the top or near it for office growth. This particular article claims Fulton Market is the "Fastest-Growing Urban Office-Hub in the U.S."

https://www.costar.com/article/87488...-fulton-market

.

Cool. That's just on the other side of the bridge from where David Duchovny's character built the skyscraper in 2000's Return to Me, an underrated Chicago film also starring Minnie Driver, Bonnie Hunt, and Jim Belushi. That was also Carroll O'Connor's last movie before his death in 2001.