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Old 07-01-2020, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Chicago =)
410 posts, read 629,977 times
Reputation: 362

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10 years ago Wicker Park and the West Loop where going into overdrive. Now they are highly sought after communities with sky high rents and trendy establishments.

In 2015, Logan Square, and arguably Uptown, were undergoing a similar process.


My question is, what’s the next place that will hit the nitro button and undergo and accelerated development phase. Becoming a yuppified, hipster, wealthy enclave?


Pilsen seemed to be up next. But with an anti-gentrification aldermen and a tight knit community it could take some time.


My other candidates would be Bridgeport, Avondale, Humboldt Park, and East Garfield Park


Call me crazy, but I’m personally thinking East Garfield Park could actually be the next one here.
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Old 07-01-2020, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Chicago
103 posts, read 149,930 times
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The next hot trend is the suburbs/rural/remote working/white flight.

Gen Z is coming of age now, and they aren't as hot on urban areas as the Millennials were.

Due to Covid-19, many companies have realized their workforce is just as productive and more happy working from home. They can reduce overhead costs by shrinking their office space, and hiring people remotely who don't need a 6 figure income to support urban cost of living. That, coupled with the rioting and the looting, are forcing regular people out of the city.

Rahm Emmanuel did alot for gentrification with all the corporate relocations, but our mayor now doesn't value capitalism and doesn't have the connections Rahm did to keep that going.

Chicago is about to stagnate for the next few years.

Little Village is next for gentrification, but it's not going to be a boom town situation like we saw with Logan Square. It's going to be slow. It's going to happen organically. The main things that will drive economic growth in Little Village are increased jobs in the neighborhood with the new distribution centers and health facilities they are building on the edge of the neighborhood, and increased family wealth in the Mexican community as a whole. You might get a tiny bit of spillover from people getting priced out of Pilsen to buy homes...but the rental market has stagnated in Pilsen this year, and gentrification/displacement isn't happening as fast as some people say its happening. (Lived in Pilsen since 2013, I can see the demographic shifts slowing down/reversing) Gentrification in Little Village is not going to be driven by yuppies and cocktail bars like the west loop.

East Garfield Park isn't going to happen any time soon. People were betting on that in the 2000's and it still hasn't happened. Hipsters and business owners don't feel welcome in that neighborhood. Developers haven't built on the empty lots, giving the neighborhood a barren feeling. It is in a great location, with green line, blue line, and I-290 access into downtown. So the speculation makes sense. But the reality is, its a crime ridden open air drug market and the people who live there are not friendly to outsiders.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:15 PM
 
Location: Chicago =)
410 posts, read 629,977 times
Reputation: 362
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlong1991 View Post
The next hot trend is the suburbs/rural/remote working/white flight.

Gen Z is coming of age now, and they aren't as hot on urban areas as the Millennials were.

Due to Covid-19, many companies have realized their workforce is just as productive and more happy working from home. They can reduce overhead costs by shrinking their office space, and hiring people remotely who don't need a 6 figure income to support urban cost of living. That, coupled with the rioting and the looting, are forcing regular people out of the city.

Rahm Emmanuel did alot for gentrification with all the corporate relocations, but our mayor now doesn't value capitalism and doesn't have the connections Rahm did to keep that going.

Chicago is about to stagnate for the next few years.

Little Village is next for gentrification, but it's not going to be a boom town situation like we saw with Logan Square. It's going to be slow. It's going to happen organically. The main things that will drive economic growth in Little Village are increased jobs in the neighborhood with the new distribution centers and health facilities they are building on the edge of the neighborhood, and increased family wealth in the Mexican community as a whole. You might get a tiny bit of spillover from people getting priced out of Pilsen to buy homes...but the rental market has stagnated in Pilsen this year, and gentrification/displacement isn't happening as fast as some people say its happening. (Lived in Pilsen since 2013, I can see the demographic shifts slowing down/reversing) Gentrification in Little Village is not going to be driven by yuppies and cocktail bars like the west loop.

East Garfield Park isn't going to happen any time soon. People were betting on that in the 2000's and it still hasn't happened. Hipsters and business owners don't feel welcome in that neighborhood. Developers haven't built on the empty lots, giving the neighborhood a barren feeling. It is in a great location, with green line, blue line, and I-290 access into downtown. So the speculation makes sense. But the reality is, its a crime ridden open air drug market and the people who live there are not friendly to outsiders.

Thanks for the reply,

Little Village is ripe for gentrification. I just don't see it happening to a large extent same as you, the Mexican community is quite entrenched there and Pilsen is already experiencing intense anti-gentrification efforts. I thought EGP could be a good candidate given it's barren situation but I do understand where you're coming from. It might require a wave of prosperity and investment for it to change. I have a friend who lives there who is an artist and jesus it is sketchyyyy.


I'm still not 100% sold on some sort of city exodus. Most likely, we'll see inner cities continue the way they are without much change. So I guess your use of the word stagnate does work effectively here.

But also, there have been riots in suburbs, and suburban-esque cities as well. COVID-19 does not discriminate urban to rural either. Florida, Texas, and California are currently experiencing a surge in cases. Meanwhile Illinois, and New York, which were hit hard earlier, have flattened the curve. Ultra dense places like Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei have successfully stamped out their own outbreaks.

Telework is absolutely a driving force for any change, but city life isn't 100% about being close to work either. People choose to be in cities so that their neighborhoods are walkable, near public transit, near shops, restaurants, bars. People come for the urban lifestyle and the energy. Telework has not spurred me to leave Pilsen for Naperville. Reduced office space in the Loop could result in residential conversions. Maybe LaSalle street is the next huge residential boom, converting all those ancient offices into condo units

But I do see what you mean, we're in a new era, and Chicago, and other central cities won't see the explosive growth of the past decade. Zillow searches for suburban areas are up some 15-20%.

You might like this study by the Brookings Institute, they found that even before COVID, central city growth had begun to slow down especially for large cities. They attributed this largely to an improving economy, which allowed people to move to small/mid size cities. I suspect skyrocketing prices also helped this trend along.

But I still think the jury is out on some sort of reversal. I'd classify myself as between Gen Z and Millenial, and cities are still desirable. It'll be more like, as you said, stagnation.

On a side note, I have noticed falling rents in Pilsen. I'm gearing up to move in a few months and I've seen some sweet, sweet deals.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:28 PM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
1,973 posts, read 5,191,423 times
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My guess would be Avondale and Uptown.

Pilsen and Bridgeport seem too isolated from the North Side neighborhoods to quickly gentrify on a large scale. I'm also not convinced that Bridgeport won't be taken over by Chinatown before the hipsters and yuppies reach critical mass.

But who really knows with COVID-19 and what the aftermath will lead to.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Chicago =)
410 posts, read 629,977 times
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5LAKES,

Totally agree on Bridgeport, it's wedged between two freeways and a crappy creek. Also, the encroaching Chinese community will probably swallow it up. But I suspect the artists will remain.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
1,973 posts, read 5,191,423 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by japster28 View Post
Totally agree on Bridgeport, it's wedged between two freeways and a crappy creek. Also, the encroaching Chinese community will probably swallow it up. But I suspect the artists will remain.
Yeah, I always liked Bridgeport but can't figure what direction it might go in the future. If I were looking for a more affordable neighborhood outside of the "usual suspects" I would probably be inclined to look into Irving Park before Bridgeport. To me it seems like portions of Irving Park are undergoing more gentrification than Bridgeport, but it lacks the artist factor and does not get mentioned as often for whatever reason.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Chicago =)
410 posts, read 629,977 times
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I think the housing stock in Bridgeport isn't very good. Also, Bridgeport gets alot of press from the artist community as well as acclaimed restaurants/bars. Also there's quite a few prominent Bridgeport boosters like Maria's Packaged Goods founder Ed Marszewski. Which might explain the higher profile of the nabe.
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:18 PM
 
629 posts, read 535,022 times
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next hot neighborhood will be ABI


anywhere but Illinois
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Old 07-01-2020, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Chi 'burbs=>Tucson=>Naperville=>Chicago
2,177 posts, read 1,808,020 times
Reputation: 2925
Uptown is the hardest neighborhood to figure out. And it's pretty big. In its state today, I would never consider living there.

Just a few weeks ago, my wife and I walked 3-4 miles from where we live all the way to Buena Park - right through Uptown first along Leland, then south to Graceland and around it. Beautiful walk in the morning, stunning streets, great old architecture. Lovely.

On the way back, about 1pm, it was totally different. We walked 3-4 blocks on Sheridan - and it was beyond sketchy, with people talking to themselves, staring and approaching people. We cut west as quickly as we could, and even though we were going through some nice looking spots, we witnessed a drug transaction and several other people were yelling, looking around for "action". My wife was pretty freaked out. Eventually once we got west enough, it was like a light switched off and it was beautiful again, but we were practically in Ravenswood by then.

I've had several similar experiences in Uptown - it feels like the old darling that was left to rot, and while the beautiful shell remains and there are still iconic places there, its good ol' days are several decades in the past. Can it be rescued and improved? Not sure. I am fine going to Uptown during the day, though. But at night I wouldn't walk around.

People use the word Gentrification. Why is that a good thing? Cleaning up a neighborhood and making it safe and fun to be in, doesn't require gentrification. When I think of that word, I think of corporate/chain stores with brand new signs, and new construction, Starbucks and Apple Stores. I think of catering to a yuppie crowd where grandparents and their grandkids don't fit in. To me, that's a fake neighborhood.
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Old 07-01-2020, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Chi 'burbs=>Tucson=>Naperville=>Chicago
2,177 posts, read 1,808,020 times
Reputation: 2925
To further answer the question----the next yuppie, hipster, wealthier enclave (which I will avoid like the plague), will probably be areas near Wicker/Logan. I think that's why people pick NE Humboldt Park, as it's literally in between Wicker and Logan on the diagonal. I could also see Ukrainian/East Village taking that next step from medium/high, to very hot - that area would connect Wicker Park to West Town, which bleeds south into West Loop. Might as well fill in that whole area.

The one barrier to UV/EV and West Town is that it's not right along a train line. Wicker and Logan have that huge advantage with the Blue Line going right through them.

Someone mentioned Avondale, and that area feels a little too spread out to me. Also, no train.

Little Italy could become a massive hot spot at some point.

Other than that....the rest just seem too "far". People complain about a commute more than 30 minutes and that removes a lot of areas from getting super popular.
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