De-Gentrification? (Chicago, Lincoln, Hamilton: apartment, foreclosures, rental)

[hsw]

Depends upon one's macro-economic view....

I suspect many US cities (incl NYC, Chic, SF and LA) will revert to their '70s-state, much easier in a more virtual world in which many wealth-creating financial/tech firms are based in suburban office parks anyway....and many <40yo affluent, married guys who intend to raise kids will flee to NS suburbs; drive to Loop office daily (if firm doesn't relocate to NS); and occasionally drive wife down to Alinea (or whatever is latest/greatest restaurant) for grub...a few affluent bachelors will choose to live on GoldCoast/LincPk in well-guarded, doorman buildings....and drive to Loop office and around town to get grub/drinks and meet post-college hotties

Increased violent crime (most of which is unreported for obvious reasons); increased taxes by old, decaying cities upon affluent residents and profitable companies; and cost of private schools will likely have interesting impacts on every "elitist" urban region....suspect many will be "forced" into leafy, upscale suburbs again...

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by hsw

Depends upon one's macro-economic view....

I suspect many US cities (incl NYC, Chic, SF and LA) will revert to their '70s-state, much easier in a more virtual world in which many wealth-creating financial/tech firms are based in suburban office parks anyway....and many <40yo affluent, married guys who intend to raise kids will flee to NS suburbs; drive to Loop office daily (if firm doesn't relocate to NS); and occasionally drive wife down to Alinea (or whatever is latest/greatest restaurant) for grub...a few affluent bachelors will choose to live on GoldCoast/LincPk in well-guarded, doorman buildings....and drive to Loop office and around town to get grub/drinks and meet post-college hotties

Increased violent crime (most of which is unreported for obvious reasons); increased taxes by old, decaying cities upon affluent residents and profitable companies; and cost of private schools will likely have interesting impacts on every "elitist" urban region....suspect many will be "forced" into leafy, upscale suburbs again...

Not a chance. There's just no way the city will return to it's bad 1970s self. You're dreaming if you really believe that (or have a chip on your shoulder regarding urbanites).

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by chet everett

I think a lot of people are neglecting the basics of "cost and value" calculations. While it is true that the ex-urbs were hit hardest with declines in real estate prices, the fact remains that the total value offered "out there" may still be better than in "fringe gentrification" areas. Look at costs per square foot and total annual cost-of-living VS total household income. Remember it is not just a place to sleep, the declines in office & commercial space also mean it is cheaper for BUSINESS to grow "out there". Cheap gas helps this tremendously, as do the increases in Cook Co and Chicago tax rates...

I don't think people are neglecting that. People are moving to urban areas because they do see value in them. Urban areas offer short commutes to the State’s largest job hub, character and culture, affordable historic properties, easy public transportation, parks, amenities (even if they’re not directly in your town they are right by you in a neighboring town), etc. You talk about high taxes to rectify present problems, but there are plenty of people willing to pay high taxes if the upside is sufficient enough. And not all urban areas have high taxes in any event. Just like their DuPage counterparts, taxes in Cook County suburbs can vary widely from city to city. And urban living does not equal tolerance of crime. I’ve lived in Chicago and the inner-ring for 15 years now. I’ve never been the victim of any serious crime.

The primary value of an ex-burb lies in living in a homogonous community that’s isolated, at least in theory, from “danger” and other social ills. Thus far, the schools are also a benefit, but this is in no small part due to the relatively homogonous populations which have moved out there. That and there is cheap and apparently limitless land for development, though this argument is actually circular since the demand to develop is directly tied to the demand to move out there.

So, the real question when it comes to true value in the long term is whether or not it’s realistic to assume that these communities will maintain their demographic homogony in the face of a changing (and shifting) population. Will a supply of young professionals with children and other affluent folks keep flowing (forced and voluntary) out there while a filter of some kind keeps the “undesirables” out? And what will that filter be? High taxes? High gas prices? High home prices? These are things you cite as the potential downfall of the urban areas so any of these could amount to a double edged sword for an ex-burb. And if these areas do start becoming diverse (in terms of income and race/ethnicity), will they be able to maintain their value?

I have a strong sense on the answer to these questions but of course, I am not psychic, nor do I pretend that everyone shares my views.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Drover

...The stretch from Roscoe Village up through Andersonville comes to mind, including St. Ben's, North Center, Ravenswood, and Lincoln Square. Bowmanville is next. Not a lot of idealism was needed to gentrify those areas.

No, Budlong Woods is next. Bowmanville has been pretty gentrified (for the most part-not totally though) for like 10 years.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

As any resident of Rogers Park or Uptown knows, Gentrification can be suspended in a partially completed state for decades at a time...

...or Humboldt Park and Logan Square which have been "about to completely gentrify" for like 25 years.

Uptown and Rogers Park have just been taking spillover from Lake View and Lincoln Park in the last 10 years or so.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

...or Humboldt Park and Logan Square which have been "about to completely gentrify" for like 25 years.

Uptown and Rogers Park have just been taking spillover from Lake View and Lincoln Park in the last 10 years or so.

That's me. Lakeview spillover. We rarely go north in to Uptown for anything, but end up south in Lakeview pretty much every day.

[oakparkdude]

Oh great, the racialists have arrived in this thread.

[supernerdgirl]

Originally Posted by sukwoo

Oh great, the racialists have arrived in this thread.

they've seemingly come out of nowhere since the election.

[oakparkdude]

I guess its inevitable now that the thread will be locked soon. Such a shame.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by supernerdgirl

they've seemingly come out of nowhere since the election.

I honestly think it's just one guy who keeps changing his username. Or perhaps he recruited a couple of other racist buddies from some wacko right-wing conspiracy web site. It's pretty funny to watch him squirm at the mere suggestion that Mexicans are equal to Italians! Dance, *****, dance!