De-Gentrification? (Chicago, Rockford, Naperville: cul-de-sac, condo, house)

[oakparkdude]

I just wish he'd spend more time ironing his hood or posting on stormfront instead of posting here and sidetracking (and locking) interesting threads.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by sukwoo

I just wish he'd spend more time ironing his hood or posting on stormfront instead of posting here and sidetracking (and locking) interesting threads.

*sarcasm*

Hey man, you just need to be more open to opposing viewpoints! You know, viewpoints that say white people are superior to all others and that diversity is terrible for the country. You know, crazy racist viewpoints that can only lead to race wars and expulsion of all non-whites from the U.S of A. if you follow them to their only possible conclusions without actually saying these things out loud. It's "logical" and "well-reasoned", after all.

[jessiegirl_98]

I was so proud of this thread too for the nice back and forth!!!!
Just report posts and we'll try to keep it open!

[oakparkdude]

To reset the discussion back to the original topic, I'll repost two of my "Golden Oldies."

http://www.city-data.com/forum/gener...dangerous.html
-Study demonstrating risk of violent crime in urban areas is overstated relative to risk of auto injury in burbia.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/chica...next-slum.html
-Article proposing long-term demographic trends in favor of urbanization.

While the current economic downturn will be severe, it will be temporary (years not decades in length.)

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by sukwoo

While the current economic downturn will be severe, it will be temporary (years not decades in length.)

And there's really not much evidence that this economic downturn will hit the cities harder than the suburbs (in cities that have moved beyond industrial economies). Our country has changed since the post-war period, and the switch to a post-industrial economy in urban areas means that their economies will track along with the rest of the country instead of separately from it. Poor homeowners will be hit hard in the mortgage mess, however. And foreclosures will be more severe in urban areas. But the job outlook should move up and down with the suburban job outlook.

[Attrill]

As long as neighborhoods remain desirable (i.e. crime doesn't increase, basic services function) I think there is an upside to the decline in housing prices. Developers are definitely not buying up properties at the rate they once were, and in a few cases I know of are selling off SFH they were planning on tearing down for new condo development. I have a couple friends who have been looking to buy their first homes and over the last few months have gone from looking at condos to buying fixer-upper SFH (this is in Bridgeport and the near Northwest side). I also have a friend who is looking to buy a two flat as a rental property, and am considering doing the same myself. A pause in development could be good to ensure that not EVERY SFH in some neighborhoods is torn down for condos or new $1 million+ SFHs.

Everyone is right that schools are very important. I've been touring a lot of public schools lately and have been surprised at how many are actually good. The ones Lookout Kid mentioned are definitely good, and I've gotten good impressions from Audubon, Goethe, Ravenswood, Disney, International - Bucktown, Hamilton, and Pritzker. One thing that surprised me was that the total test scores for larger schools isn't always the best indicator of the quality of the school. A large school can have 5 or more classes per grade with the classes broken out by ability levels, and the higher ability level classes can be very good. After a year of touring schools and talking to parents, students, and teachers I've found the CPS to have better schools than I thought (on the Northside at least).

[Frank the Tank]

As with a lot of things in the life, the outcome will likely fall somewhere in between. I believe that there is an increased demand for urban and walkable living, particularly among young singles, DINKs, second home owners, and empty nesters, which will keep up the already-gentrified areas of Chicago. The falling real estate market, however, will likely stall the gentrification of fringe areas such as Uptown and Pilsen since that was partly driven by increased real estate prices elsewhere in the city (which have since come back down). At the same time, the real estate needs of families with children are usually driven by two main concerns: (1) education and (2) space. While there has been some improvement in a handful of city public schools, generally speaking, parents aren't going to wait around to see if a neighborhood school is going to get better for valid reasons - you can't turn back the clock on 1 or 2 years of your child's education if you believe that it wasn't up to snuff. Meanwhile, living in a condo or a floor of a 2-flat is a whole lot different with even one child (much less multiple children) than for singles or DINKs - as a result, space concerns are a major issue. Simply put, there are more families out there that want a single-family home as opposed to a condo or any type of multi-family housing. There is a relative handful of people that have the financial means to purchase a single-family home in one of those gentrified urban areas that is safe and has good schools. Otherwise, the average family is only going to get the combination of quality public schools and space in the suburbs. Thus, I think that the calls of some type of mass migration back to the city are unfounded - the quickly built and less-established exurbs might flounder and they could be just as risky real estate investments as those fringe not-fully-gentrified urban neighborhoods, but the quality suburbs with well-established public school systems are likely to be always in high demand.

The upshot: I don't think that there will be much of an influx one way or another between the city and suburbs. I believe that it has settled into a well-established pattern (at least in measurable numbers for the mass middle-to-upper middle class as opposed to just anecdotal evidence) - you get out of school and move into a city apartment, get married and stay in the city for awhile by possibly buying a condo, and then you buy a house in the suburbs when you are ready to have kids. This cycle then repeats itself with the next set of people coming out of school. Honestly, this is a perfectly fine and sustainable pattern for the Chicago area or any other strong metropolitan area - there are plenty of places, such as Detroit, where the "moving to the city" part of life is usually skipped and avoided all together.

[Lookout Kid]

As a city dweller who is married and has a child, I can say that the infrastructure for rasing kids in the city exists. It is simply too expensive for most middle class residents. I'm amazed at the numbers of high-income earners (like more than $300K/year) who are buying $800,000 homes in Lincoln Square and sending their kids to private schools. Their numbers are much greater than I ever would have anticipated in neighborhoods like Lincoln Square, North Center, etc. I don't think there are enough of these people to gentrify large swaths of the city, however.

[MassVt]

...if we are seeing the beginning of the end of the classic post-WW2 era of the downtown work force communting home to the suburbs. As time goes by, more and more employers are choosing suburban locations, thus making the suburb-to-suburb commute much more prevalent. There may be an ebb-and-flow pattern, but ultimately the lure of the single-family home with a yard will continue to draw midle-class families to the suburbs.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by MassVt

As time goes by, more and more employers are choosing suburban locations, thus making the suburb-to-suburb commute much more prevalent.

This is not necessarily true anymore. While the post WWII trend was definitely towards employment deconcentration throughout the metro area, I'd say the trend is shifting towards the Central Business District once again, at least in cities with good rail infrastructure. For instance, BP is ditching their suburban location to get back downtown. Why? It's easier to get young talent.