De-Gentrification? (Humboldt: racist, best, ghetto)

[oakparkdude]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

You gave your audience too little credit (particularly the venerable sukwoo), constructed a straw man, and then seemed to really get into yourself in tearing it down. I call that self-congratulation. Maybe there is a better word.

Wow, I've never been called venerable before. On my way to sainthood. Thanks!

[jdiddy]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

You guys need to give heyjude1959 a little bit of a break here. While sales have certainly slowed, prices have been remarkably stable so far. Deals are out there compared to the peak 2006 prices, but a lot of people are expecting huge discounts that still aren't happening. Greater Chicago has seen median sales prices drop, but nothing like what we've seen in some hotter markets elsewhere in the country. There's still time, however!

When no one's buying and a few thousand more units are about to be delivered, its only a matter of time until the prices come down.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by jdiddy

When no one's buying and a few thousand more units are about to be delivered, its only a matter of time until the prices come down.

The laws of supply and demand do agree with you. The demand side is the one that's hardest to estimate. I personally know several people who would like to buy real estate right now, but who are "waiting it out" until the market shows some signs of a rebound. This tells me that prices will bottom out below an equilibrium point, and then will quickly snap back up as the pent up demand causes a panic of people who want to buy low. Timing this will be nearly impossible and will require a great deal of luck.

Of course, there is also pent up supply, in that many owners are waiting for a marekt rebound to list their places. So perhaps the pent up supply will balance out or negate the pent up demand. It's really impossible to know.

[Humboldt1]

I have to disagree with some of your last post.

I agree that prices may over-correct to the downside but do not see a v-shaped recovery after that. Instead, I think it will be a more L-shaped recovery in which prices bottom and stay the same for 1-2 years before slowly heading up slowly. Historically, this has been the case with real estate boom and bust cycles.

If you are looking to sell within 5 years, now is not a good time to buy. I think prices will bottom in 2010. We will return to 2008 prices in 2011-2012. It may be as late as 2015 before we return to 2006 level prices. This is for Chicago only.

Nationwide, I think it will be similar, but in some areas such as California and Florida it may be as late as 2020 before they return to 2006 prices.

[chet everett]

My crystal ball remains much hazier than those of others...

I have literally never seen so many "big indicators" be so un-helpful. The data that is routinely available from purchasing managers, shipping agents, outplacement firms, retail sales, durable goods and basically everything else make it seem like there is no bottom in sight. As bad as stock prices have fallen, earning estimates are falling faster.

I try to be optimistic about things, but realistically there is very little to be hopeful about.

I have personal contacts in various "frontline" sales positions in real estate, consumer lending, automotive, technology, consumer electronics and other fields -- none of them are talking about "pent up demand" as much as they are about "deepening fatique". Both direct consumers and corporate-side buyers are wrung-out.

Some of this is undoubtedly due to the the prolonged political battles that were designed to paint the past 8 years as the most out-of-control administation that has EVER been elected TWICE, and I think that eventually people will come to see how oxymoronic that truly is, thus there is some possibility that people WILL quickly regain their senses and realize they DO have spendable money in their pockets, investment IS needed to see growth, BOTH saving AND spending ARE vital to overall financial life and ULTIMATELY the Earth will not stop spinning...

The time frame for these things is beyond my powers of prognostication...

In general, there is still a "what is coming NEXT" level of uncertainty that MAY be resolved if/when the new administration has some successes and maybe a limited setback or two. My gut tells me that is MOST LIKELY to happen during the Q2'09, but the OUTCOME of those successes are unlikely to really be felt until for at least a year out from then...

2010 is already looming as a HUGE deal for many important Chicago/Illinois decisions -- Olympic Comittee Final Selection, Mayor, Governor & Senator all up for election -- lots of things of local importance!

[ChiMack]

Originally Posted by heyjude1959

Poker player

Very good points.
I think many in the Hispanic community WANT TO ASSIMILATE which of course makes it recipricol and it is easier to get along

actually that might be wrong, the hispanic community especially the mexican i think is the one that takes the longest to assimilate and the one that resists it the most (thats what i learned in school).

[ChiMack]

Originally Posted by sukwoo

The thing is, the percentage of American adults who are married with kids continues to drop. For the ever increasing number of childless adults, there will be no reason to relocate to the burbs.

yeah but the reason that the population in chicago seems relatively unchanged even though people move to the burbs and other cities is due to immigration and immigrants do have children also Chicago is a sanctuary city.

[Humboldt1]

You should not listen to what some sociology professor told you in school. I have learned far more living in Humboldt Park than I could have ever learned by spending a lifetime studying urban sociology (my favorite class, btw).

Some Mexicans are assimilating while others are taking longer. The first generation is always the toughest as the parents do not speak English many times. Also, the first generation often comes over married with children. The second generation is generally more open to assimilating with other cultures.

I think this is true amongst any immigrant class, whether it be Polish, Chinese, or Mexican.

[jdiddy]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

You should not listen to what some sociology professor told you in school. I have learned far more living in Humboldt Park than I could have ever learned by spending a lifetime studying urban sociology (my favorite class, btw).

Some Mexicans are assimilating while others are taking longer. The first generation is always the toughest as the parents do not speak English many times. Also, the first generation often comes over married with children. The second generation is generally more open to assimilating with other cultures.

I think this is true amongst any immigrant class, whether it be Polish, Chinese, or Mexican.

Actually, that's a rather basic fact that is often taught in sociology classes.

[Lookout Kid]

Pent up demand is a real thing. LOTS of buyers are standing on the sidelines waiting for the bloodbath to end, attempting to time the "bottom". The echo boomers are rapidly approaching homebuying age, and feel that they "deserve" the homeowning lifestyle of their parents. Now, if massive job losses continue to occur, many people who thought they wanted to buy a place will have to change their plans. This is entirely within the realm of possibility, and would certainly push the market down even further. And the youngest generation of college grads is loaded up on debt like never before and will have a hard time qualifying for any mortgage until they are fifty years old.