De-Gentrification? (Chicago, Naperville, Melrose Park: real estate, 2010, condos)

[ChiMack]

do you guy ever think that the neighborhoods in Chicago that are going through gentrification will ever go back? maybe not to crime ridden areas etc but do you ever see those neigborhoods ever taking a step back?

[Lookout Kid]

I really don't see that happening in the near future, unless the economic downturn is prolonged over the course of several years--like the Great Depression was.

[Avengerfire]

Uptown,Rogers Park,Logan Square,and East Humboldt Park would be the prime examples if the economic downturn gets really bad. The gains that they have made will be lost really quickly if the economy gets depression-like.

[Drover]

Nothing is ever written in stone and this city is always in a state of change. Some areas that used to be gentrified but ungentrified include Uptown and Austin. No guarantee that what happened to those places in generations past won't happen to other currently gentrified places in future generations.

[Attrill]

I think it is very unlikely. The main causes of the decline of cities in the 60's were white flight, loss of industrial jobs, the attraction of suburban living (with easy commutes), and a rise in urban crime.

What we are looking at right now is a drop in real estate values, partially due to a credit crunch, which actually locks many people into the place they are currently living. White flight is not likely to happen again. Most people who have gentrified neighborhoods over the last 10 years are familiar with suburban living and have already made a choice to not go that route.

It could possibly happen if the city cannot fund services for an extended period of time and they decline to the point that crime increases dramatically, public transit falls apart, trash collection drops off, etc.. The big difference now is that suburbs are facing the same pressures, and will also see a decline in services (shortage of clean water, decaying roads, increased crime, etc.).

[PokerPlayer1]

It's possible, but pretty unlikely. The economy is cyclical. While we may be facing some secular changes (as far as future growth), the downturn that lies ahead won't last forever. It would take a massive regression in the standard of living for white people to suddenly 'abandon' desirable urban areas that have been otherwise 'reclaimed' from the feral cultures.

A severe economic downturn will unquestionably hamper ongoing gentrification efforts, as the capital that drives the speculation (which in turn drives prices, which in turn raises the standard of living which in turn attracts white people) will run dry, but as far as Lincoln Park ever totally 'going back' , no. Ain't gunna happen unless the city becomes some totally uninhabitable Mad Max scenario due to a total collapse of civil order.

A lot of the speculative money that- in 2003-2006- was dumped into highly speculative (and otherwise very marginal) real estate in areas like South Shore, Pilsen, certain areas of Rogers Park, certain parts of Hyde Park etc is presently really feeling the burn and probably will continue to hurt for a long while, but I doubt that any actual regression will occur in areas that have already developed a meaningful white presence.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Lubin

Chicago has more White flight in the period of 1990-2010, probably going to show a loss of over 100,000 Whites. Cook County well over 200,000.

For every area gentrified, there are 2 areas that probably get worse.

This is true. White flight continues at a rapid pace, particularly on the fringe of the city. This is the major reason that the anti-gentrification "affordable housing" activists are full of crap when they talk about "displacement".

However, the areas that are gentrifying close to the Loop and on the Lakefront are unlikely to decline much in the future. They gentrified because of their geographic advantages and transportation options, and these will not change. Possible exceptions include Rogers Park and Uptown, because they have terrible Alder-persons who are bent on building as much "affordable housing" as possible. I think they will ultimately lose this battle, however, and Rogers Park and Uptown will just have problem pockets in the future.

Originally Posted by Lubin

Who can predict who the mayor after Daley will be? What if a clown like that guy in Detroit gets elected?

This would be problematic if it happened in Chicago, but I'd like to think that our voter base is diverse enough to avoid this. Detroit is about 90% black at this point in time, and most of the population is poor. Chicago has a ways to go before it would get there, and we have a much stronger business community. A prolonged economic downturn could change everything, though.

Originally Posted by Lubin

Demographic trends are not good overall, and the "housing stock" of this cheaply built generation of condos, etc. may not stand up too well.

I think you're overly obssessed with demographic trends. The black population of Chicago is not growing. The white population is not growing. The Hispanic population IS growing. I think we'll see a Hispanic mayor before we ever see another black one. And I'm seeing more and more professional Latinos and Latinas in my line of work every day, as this group pulls itself up into the middle class like all of the other immigrant groups did before them.

You're right about the cheaply built condos, however. I was in one just this morning in Lakeview that was built in the late 90s and is already deteriorating due to poor flashing and water barriers. I fear that they may become the slums of tomorrow, and think the neighborhoods with older housing stock will fair best in the future.

[Humboldt1]

I agree that White Flight is happening in Chicago, particularly on the south side. More than white flight or black flight is the growth of the Hispanic population. I also think it is more of population movement within the city than population migration. People like myself (white yuppies) generally are willing to live in the city when we are young and single and do not have children in the schools. Once we get married and have children of school-age, we either enroll our kids in private school (mostly Catholic) or we move out to a suburb like Naperville, where our children can benefit from good schools. Most yuppies do not stay in the city once they have kids in school. In Bucktown, you see lots of couples with small children but very few elementary, middle, or high school age kids, except maybe on the weekends. Areas like Bucktown are seen as a great place to live for adults before they have kids enrolled in school.

On the west side, there is also displacement going on, where more and more Hispanics are moving into areas where the black population is declining, such as Humboldt Park. As the white population has pushed further and further west, the Hispanic population has been forced further west as well. In turn, formerly black areas are now developing significant hispanic populations. I do not see whites moving back into far west-side neighborhoods but moving further north and west into areas like Norwood and Harwood Heights as Hispanics move into neighborhoods like Hermosa, Cragin, Portage Park (still a lot of Europeans) and Avondale.

Blacks are then being forced further west and south with the growth of the Hispanic population (almost all Mexican as I do not see the Puerto Rican population growing nearly as much, especially not in Humboldt Park or Logan Square). Many blacks are moving into areas such as Berkeley, Bellwood, and Melrose Park as their population has shifted from urban areas to suburban areas.

Ultimately, Hispanics (mostly Mexican) will approach a majority of the population for Chicago. Once Daley is done I would not be surprised to see a Hispanic Mayor. There will not be another Harold Washington.

[PokerPlayer1]

Originally Posted by Lubin

If we are entering into a long period of stagflation: (stagnant economy plus inflated money supply and rising prices) why can't US cities return to their 70's hellhole days?

It's certainly possible, but I would guess that such a scenario is unlikely.

The decline of urban areas that occurred in the US during the 60's and 70's had mainly to do with a massive economic sea change when our country started the shift from industrial to post industrial. Blue collar, working class white people that lived in cities due to their proximity to critical industries (and the jobs they afforded) started leaving these cities when minorities moved in and decreased the standard of living, then the remaining hold-outs abandoned the cities all together when the industries left. 'Service economies', which we now are (for better and for worse) are far more resilient to economic downturn than industrial economies are.

As far as the growth of the Hispanic population, I believe that if we can implement some sort of meaningful immigration policy and avoid turning Chicago into Tijuana-North, in 20 years, English speaking, native born Hispanics will be viewed in the same way that we view people of Italian heritage- that is to say, not much (if any) cultural distinction will be made. This will be very hard in Chicago with such an enormous Mexican cultural influence, but it can be achieved over time.

When my grandfather was my age, Italians were as distinct and 'different' an ethnicity just as many Caucasians consider Hispanics today- their own culture, their own language, their own foods, their own insular communities. etc- but a couple generations in the melting pot and that distinction is now totally gone. Intermarriage between Whites and Hispanics is already extremely common and the resulting offspring doesn't exactly 'stick out' as being unusual. I have a great deal of faith in the ability of Hispanics to assimilate and become a working part of the American system. I don't think this same dynamic is working in favor of 'other cultures who shall remain nameless'. I don't necessarily think that the demographic shift that is presently occurring with Chicago and Hispanics will have the same negative consequences that occurred with Chicago and the 'great migration' of blacks, as long as we can embrace the "Hispanic people" yet purge the "Mexico".

[Humboldt1]

You and I are on the same page.

I don't think it is that the minorites moved in and lead to urban areas getting worse. I believe it is that the best and the brightest (including blacks) left the area and those who were left behind were stranded and created a culture of entitlement that has led to declines of the west and south side in Chicago. Many of the urban areas close in have been reclaimed by gentrification as professionals have taken back these areas given their close proximity to the Loop and its high paying jobs.