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Here is a general rule and I'm not the only one that is thinking this apparently as I have made a new discovery that many others are starting to realize that storms for whatever reason, head right for the Chicago area and then at the last second, either fizzle out to nothing or shoot right off to our north and bomb the northern suburbs.
Example: 12/16's storm was originally supposed to bomb the southern burbs with snow and I knew all along that the "Orland Park bubble" would protect us once again and sure enough it came through for us as always. (Watch these, this is of a line of severe storms over the summer and this played out time and time again all summer long with the exception of the first week of August during one storm... YouTube - Orland Park Force Field & YouTube - Orland Park Force Field )
Anyways... 12/16; Downers Grove ended up with some 5-6 inches once again as it did the first week of Dec... Oak Brook about 5", O'Hare 5", Midway even about 3", Orland and Tinley Park...1-2" and areas like Chicago Heights, Steger, Beecher, Hammond... pretty much nothing... Just a dusting. There is something about the southern burbs with how the forest preserves are so large right off to their north separating them (the southern burbs) from the rest of the city/metro area and having Joliet which is now a fairly large city sitting right off to their (Orland Park area) west that causes storms to avoid this area like the plague or hold temps just warm enough to cause what would be a snowstorm... a freezing rain or plain old rain storm.
I don't see this storm doing anything different. Areas from about Archer Ave and north and west look out, you will get a healthy dumping of snow and due to the upper level temperatures being higher than they are down on the ground, it will not be a nice fluffy snow as someone said, it will still be a wet heavy snow. Areas to the south-east of Archer Ave be prepared for a mix bag of slop, and areas south of Frankfort, Manhattan, and Beecher prepare for a ton of ice.
I agree in part - and I know you're a fairly logical person - but these are anectdotal trends. For several years I was a lifeguard in Alsip, and we all swore there was an Alsip bubble that protected it from summer t-storms.
There are microclimate factors like topography and creeks and greenspace that will affect your local results when a storm system hits
But IMO, a major storm doesn't predictably/normally/usually track to the north or south around the city - there's just too many variables. For years my in-laws in McHenry couldn't understand why we southsiders were getting more snow than they were. But I don't even think that was accurate for one whole winter - maybe one month...
I think NYrules have some valid points. I do not know the 'science' behind it, but I can recall MANY storms that were predicted to be MONSTERS and just fizzled or turned way north or south. I can recall quite a few time when I have been down in Homer Glen or someplace out that way and still have seen grass poking through the snow cover and then been out by Belvidere and seen snow stacked up to nearly a foot -- the variability of accumulation over 90 miles or so can be extreme...
I agree in part - and I know you're a fairly logical person - but these are anectdotal trends. For several years I was a lifeguard in Alsip, and we all swore there was an Alsip bubble that protected it from summer t-storms.
There are microclimate factors like topography and creeks and greenspace that will affect your local results when a storm system hits
But IMO, a major storm doesn't predictably/normally/usually track to the north or south around the city - there's just too many variables. For years my in-laws in McHenry couldn't understand why we southsiders were getting more snow than they were. But I don't even think that was accurate for one whole winter - maybe one month...
This area has ALOT of other factors that greatly alter the weather patterns and cause storms to fizzle out or slide in one direction or another. First and foremost is the LAKE! That unbelieveably screws the weather up up here, next is the fact of how severe of an urban heat island the Chicago area has and how its layed out... how there are urban heat islands scattered all over the place all around NE IL (Chicago, Joliet, Aurora, Orland/Tinley Park, and the Schaumburg heat island) In fact, Tom Skilling said years ago that the highest temperatures in Chicago overall actually occur right near Bolingbrook and Plainfield as that area now is developing it's own urban heat island thanks to the building boom from 355 going in, and that area is surrounded by heat islands, not to mention is too far inland to get any lake effect cooling what-so-ever.
The next factor is all the ambient lighting. This is a term to describe all the street lights, lights, head lights, you name it. One light bulb won't raise the outdoor temps one bit, but a million of them all on sure will. Heres a beautiful picture for your desktops http://srika.com/img/chicago_hdr/chi...dr_night04.jpg But on a serious note, don't you think what you see in that pic is having some effect on steering storms away from us? Ever driven from the downtown area on a summer night from a bar lets say and head back out to the burbs to go home with the windows down? What do you notice? The area you just left; lets say the bars on Clark or Halsted up around Fullerton where it was 80 degrees still at 1AM, when you get to the forest preserves on La Grange Road at 87th Street it will be 65 degrees only to find that when you get into Orland Park around 151st and La Grange it will be back near 80 degrees again now at 2AM? Welcome to the Orland Park shopping area's urban heat island.
http://i.treehugger.com/files/th_ima...eat_island.jpg Now look real close at that pic and think about it. While I realize it may be funny to think of, you are looking at a prime example of the south-west burbs or Joliet; built up centers with trees and farmland all around them steering clouds and storms all around us.
The last factor is all the traffic. One car? No big deal, but put a million of them out there all spewing off pollutants, and running hot engines and stop them all in traffic so they are all stuck together, and what do you create? A micro-heat island. Ever sit stuck at a light and look down the street at the pack of cars all stopped at the next light on a summer day? Ever notice how your view is altered some by the heat rays coming off all the cars and the cars actually look like they are getting wavey? That pack of cars is throwing off heat, thus warming the air near them. Now what do you suppose this is doing? http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2201/...b40b83780a.jpg
Get the idea on how Chicago actually can alter and create it's own weather to some degree? Tonight's storm will be affected too.
Never depend on the buses when it is snowing a lot. Take the train lines as much of the way as you can (even if they seemingly take you out of the way distance wise) and you will actually get home much faster.
I'm not disputing that there is an urban heat island, but I have to say I always considered the entire chicago metro area one giant bubble - so if a big storm system tracks this way, the heat island has a similar affect in any town. But maybe you're right and that's too simplistic.
In recent years I think the perception that a storm "fizzles" is much more due to the local media hype as it approaches. TV weathermen cry wolf and we stop believeing a bad storm will actually make it here, for whatever reason you choose (the odds, microclimate, heat island, etc...)
I took my son to day care in the NE loop (Lake & Michigan) yesterday and plan to do so again tomorrow. No real problem with the bus (53 Pulaski) and train (Blue Line) yesterday. The bus situation may be interesting tomorrow morning but if the plows are out it should be OK as my stop is near the north end of the route. I'll just need to pack my work shoes in a bag and wear boots for the commute.
In recent years I think the perception that a storm "fizzles" is much more due to the local media hype as it approaches. TV weathermen cry wolf and we stop believeing a bad storm will actually make it here, for whatever reason you choose (the odds, microclimate, heat island, etc...)
That's why no one leaves New Orleans before hurricanes; I grew up in Louisiana, and every year there is a hurricane predicted to come that is going to be "The One." And every year, it weakened or turned and wasn't a big deal. It was just tough luck that the one storm that actually did track directly to New Orleans, as they said it would, was the strongest in many, many years.
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