Is the Mason boom over? (Cincinnati, Dayton: cul-de-sac, middle-class, insurance)

[Bhiggins]

Masons boom in housing may be winding down but it is in no way due to the community declining but because of lack of room for further development, as kjbrill said.

If anything from development patterns, if the economy bounces back sooner than 5 years, I expect a boom in housing north of the 129 interchange and Liberty way.

This is because if Liberty Square on Liberty Way, the huge outdoor shopping center that is planned is built, it will really help both Mason and Liberty Townships.

[kjbrill]

Personally, I hope the sluggish economy holds off Liberty Square for a number of years. I see no need for a large outdoor mall other than just another traffic conjestion. With Cincinnati Premium Outlets just a couple of exits north it will be overkill.

Ohio 129, Cincinnati Dayton Rd, and I-75 is already a traffic mess. Just saw an article today for a planned addition of lanes by 2014. It soon will make the Fields Ertel - I-75 interchange on the southeast side of Mason look like a cakewalk.

The current traffic condition surrounding the Tylersville Rd and I-75 interchange in Butler Co. is already a mess. Then they go and build a new hospital, Westchester Medical Center right in the middle of the mess. By the way, it is a great hospital and well staffed. But to put it where they put it - Why?

One thing stands out in all of this. The problem areas like Fields Ertel - I-75 interchange southeast of Mason, and the Tylersville Rd - I-75 west of Mason, and the emerging Liberty Square are all located in townships. Commercial developers concentrate there. The employees of stores, etc do not have to pay a city income tax since townships are prohibited from levying one. And the townships simply do not have the staff capable of riding herd on the developers. If the trustees confirm a development, it is a done deal. Hey look, we are expanding, never mind in the future the cost of maintenance will overwhelm us due to poor planning.

I am just pleased to be a resident of Mason. Like everyone else we are taking our lumps, particularly with the escalated costs of schools. But then I look at Lakota and feel be glad you live in Mason. So before you buy that new house in Liberty Township, you may want to consider an existing house in Mason. I will vote for Mason having their act together and being able to weather the tide.

Again, boom growth over - likely! But declining - No Way!

Who is more likely to decline in our immediate area? #1 is likely Lakota schools, particularly since they are spread across two townships Westchester and Liberty. #2 is likely Kings, as it is also township. They have both done a great job in recent years, but the mounting financial pressure is building up.

Mason has a structured government and actual departments charged with recruiting and retaining businesses within the city. This will be the reason they will weather the storm. Actual plans to keep employers within the city and encourage them to expand.

So do not lament for Mason, but compare it to where you live for effective city government.

[unusualfire]

Fields Ertel never touches I-75.

[kjbrill]

Originally Posted by unusualfire

Fields Ertel never touches I-75.

OK so I meant I-71, so crucify me. But those who know and have to deal with the interchange on a daily basis know just how much of an abomination it is.

[unusualfire]

One area Mason can look towards developing is the area just north of the Beach water park. Access needs to be improved though on Mason-Morrow-Millgrove Rd.

[Ohiogirl81]

Can't we leave just vacant lot and one farm field in Warren County untouched? Please?

[unusualfire]

^There is plenty of areas that will be untouched in Eastern Warren county.

[restorationconsultant]

Mason is an example of the 'downside' of limited growth high end development. You eventually run out of land. As properties age, newer areas become more "desired", population will shift and you have decline.

The Mason urban planning model is better than many who just build, build, build, but there is that downside and either economically it is strong enough to see teardowns (take Napierville IL for example ) or some suburbs near Atlanta... or, it's not.

The only thing that you can't change are generational differences on where people want to live today and there seems to be a cultural shift going on where many young proffesionals both single and married want to live in a walkable or connected Urban City.

They grew up in suburbs and want the exact opposite, much like in the 1950's when returning GI didn't want to live in cities but rather the suburbs.

In my line of work more and more of my clients are in their 20's buying their first home to restore in an urban setting, they have zero interest in suburbia. They woudl rather but a 2500 square foot house in Price Hill for 60-80K and fix it up than build a new one at a cost of 250-300K.

Home schooling and private academies now provide more educational options. At the same time, many who bought in Suburbia 10-20 years ago plan on aging in place rather than head to Florida. As they get older they become more tax sensitive and fight needed tax interests to fund schools. A lot of suburbs are starting to feel this tax pressure. Not to mention the Federal Government who wants to 'force' these areas into accepting section 8 and availability of government low income housing projects.

I think it unwise to kid oneself into thinking suburbs are not declining. They are, its just a slower process and driven by several issues. Those issues will likely center around transportation, and cost of gas.

Its going to be interesting to see if Mason can market itself effectively against some of these issues. Its probably going to require a rethinking of their Urban planning models however.

[flashes1]

Originally Posted by restorationconsultant

Mason is an example of the 'downside' of limited growth high end development. You eventually run out of land. As properties age, newer areas become more "desired", population will shift and you have decline.

The Mason urban planning model is better than many who just build, build, build, but there is that downside and either economically it is strong enough to see teardowns (take Napierville IL for example ) or some suburbs near Atlanta... or, it's not.

The only thing that you can't change are generational differences on where people want to live today and there seems to be a cultural shift going on where many young proffesionals both single and married want to live in a walkable or connected Urban City.

They grew up in suburbs and want the exact opposite, much like in the 1950's when returning GI didn't want to live in cities but rather the suburbs.

In my line of work more and more of my clients are in their 20's buying their first home to restore in an urban setting, they have zero interest in suburbia. They woudl rather but a 2500 square foot house in Price Hill for 60-80K and fix it up than build a new one at a cost of 250-300K.

Home schooling and private academies now provide more educational options. At the same time, many who bought in Suburbia 10-20 years ago plan on aging in place rather than head to Florida. As they get older they become more tax sensitive and fight needed tax interests to fund schools. A lot of suburbs are starting to feel this tax pressure. Not to mention the Federal Government who wants to 'force' these areas into accepting section 8 and availability of government low income housing projects.

I think it unwise to kid oneself into thinking suburbs are not declining. They are, its just a slower process and driven by several issues. Those issues will likely center around transportation, and cost of gas.

Its going to be interesting to see if Mason can market itself effectively against some of these issues. Its probably going to require a rethinking of their Urban planning models however.

I'm all for urban growth despite being a suburban dweller, but there's a number of factors that cities need to solve before you see well-to-do young famililies move there en masse. Factors include 1) Security----people with kids don't want anything to do with drug dealers and violent crime----and they will not take any chances of subjecting their kids to it; 2) the housing stock within 5 miles of Cinti is old and tired outside the modern homes of Hyde Park----some people want to live in newer homes; and 3) schools---there needs to schools where well-to-do parents are 100% guaranteed their kids will be in excellent schools with no safety issues----this means guaranteed admittance to Walnut Hills quality schools---from K-12.

If you can get provide those 3 things, I think you'd see a lot of young families want to live near the core.....but until then, it's Mason. I know it's politically incorrect to say, but there are entire sections of the city that need to be removed from the face of the earth, and its residents displaced to another area. That would result in an urban renewal never seen before.

[kjbrill]

restorationconsultant... I think all of this talk about walkability is mainly just that - talk. I grew up in the older section of Madeira, small homes on 45 by 150 foot lots. It was less than 1/2 mile to the grocery, pharmacy, and any other of the stores in the downtown. How many times did we actually walk there? - close to zero. Far more convenient to just drive.

I will agree transportation costs will be a major factor in the near future. But part of that cost is parking. People who both live and work in suburbs like Mason avoid most of the runup costs. And though there seems to be a trend to deny it, jobs do exist in the suburbs.

I will still maintain the difference is Schools, Schools, Schools. Over and over I keep hearing about one HS, Walnut Hills in the CPS system. What happens if you don't make the grade there? And private schools, has anybody checked their tuition rates recently?

The comment about limited growth high end development. Of course land eventually runs out for brand new development unless you keep annexing. But this does not automatically lead to decline providing what brought people here in the first place, Schools, Schools, Schools and city amenities continues.

I will also agree Cincinnati has a much greater potential for low end, next to falling down, rehab potential, if you have the smarts to adequately evaluate what you are getting into. The majority of people do not have the background or the will power to sustain through this, and thus are ripe for charlatans to fleece them blind.

You are trying to tell me the younger generation is looking forward to reversing the trend of the last 7 decades and declaring they will trade their totally egomaniac lifestyles to reinventing the craftsmanship their great grandfathers possessed? Much of the great architecture of the period houses you value so much was hand-crafted. So where is the replacement coming from? How do you propose they eliminate the lead paint hazard? What about the obsolete and hazardous electrical wiring, the plumbing, etc? My mentality tells me before you can replace you first have to remove, and there is a cost associated with that.

So your example of a $80K house in Price Hill may escalate to well over the $250K house in Mason they can just move into and also be in a Great School District.