Is Cincinnati stuck in a rut, or is it really turning around? (Columbus: condos, credit)

[det2011sb]

Obviously this will turn into a city trashing thread, but I was hoping for some real perspective from people living in the area.

Cincinnati, based on the statistical projections I've been able to find on the internet, is forecasted to grow only modestly over the next few decades, especially when compared to similar cities, such as Indianapolis and Columbus.

However, out of all the cities of similar size, Cincinnati appears to have the strongest economic base with its plethora of fortune 500 companies. Cincinnati enjoys a nice central location to several other moderate sized cities (2 hrs to indy, 1.5 to columbus, 1.5 to lousville and lexington).

Cincinnati has a strong educational base as well with a good number of strong universities, maybe not excellent, but I would argue its cohort of universities are stronger than similar or even larger cities such as charlotte, phoenix, or orlando.

The city itself is also scenic with it's river and hills. It doesn't have the beaches of miami, or the mountains of denver, but are indianopolis/columbus/KC more scenic than cincinnati?

Is Cincinnati lacking in the high tech department? I find that also puzzling with the aerospace industry supposedly so prominent in the area.

Finally, I don't know if its the conservative nature that is holding cincinnati back. By conservative I mean complacent. I figure charlotte and indy are both conversative metros with liberal city centers. Is cincy that much different or is it more complacent. When I visited SLC, which is arguably an even more conservative metro, I didnt get a sense of complacency, but rather there was a strong sense of energy and progress. however, Detroit seemed to be the poster child of resignation and complacency when I lived there.

Finally, I've never really bought the incompetent leadership argument because every major city feels that their leaders are corrupt and incompetent. Cities tend to thrive rarely due to the leadership but rather due to a combination of a geographic uniqueness, luck, appearance of "sexiness", but most importantly large pool of an educated workforce.

So I guess Im asking what are the forecasters seeing that I'm not seeing. Is Cincinnati being unfairly grouped with the rust belt. Is there truly a renaissance? Or maybe its that all the cities in the region just complement each other and the whole midwest region will just become one giant megapolis similar to the east coast

thanks guys for helping out with my earlier question

[TomJones123]

W/O answering each of your points, Cincinnati is turning around and is under heavy development. Particularly where it matters most - in the urban core. You can't have a strong city w/o a strong urban core. So we still have some ground to cover, but are on the right track.

I recommend you peruse the development thread.

Also check the following link, because 3CDC has spear headed a lot of the development downtown and OTR. I live just in CUF near Vine Street and am downtown/OTR/Uptown daily on foot, bus, bike, and car.

3CDC | Cincinnati Center City Development Corporation

[Chemistry_Guy]

The answer to this question depends on whether you are talking about the city itself or the metropolitan area. Without specifying it is impossible to answer your question.

The city itself isn't growing much due to the demographics and the way it is incorporated. It is comparing apples to oranges when next to Columbus or Indy.

The metro is growing at around the national average, but this does't really say much about the city, as much of the growth is suburban and exurban.


In summary, your statistics must be taken in context. Internet statistical projections often lack that context.

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by Chemistry_Guy

The answer to this question depends on whether you are talking about the city itself or the metropolitan area. Without specifying it is impossible to answer your question.

The city itself isn't growing much due to the demographics and the way it is incorporated. It is comparing apples to oranges when next to Columbus or Indy.

The metro is growing at around the national average, but this does't really say much about the city, as much of the growth is suburban and exurban.


In summary, your statistics must be taken in context. Internet statistical projections often lack that context.

Report: Downtown Cincinnati population up 12% - Business Courier

I'm just saying give credit where it's due.

[Dayton Sux]

Is Cincinnati lacking in the high tech department? I find that also puzzling with the aerospace industry supposedly so prominent in the area.

I'm not sure about your source of information...as far as I know the only large aerospace activity is the big GE aircraft engine plant. Aerospace isn't a big deal here like it is in Seattle and Los Angeles areas.

Cincinnatti seems more of a diversified economy without one or another sector really dominating...which means there isn't a big high-tech or IT concentration in the area like one sees in the PNW or Northern Virginia, or like what used to be around Boston.

[Chemistry_Guy]

Originally Posted by TomJones123

Report: Downtown Cincinnati population up 12% - Business Courier

I'm just saying give credit where it's due.

I am agreeing with you, but the question is nuanced. Is downtown the city? Do suburbs count? Does growth=population? Is there a difference between adding 12000 professionals downtown vs opening up a 12000 bed homeless shelter? Unless you put the statistics in context, I don't think a collection of internet statistics really mean anything.

When I said Cincinnati isn't growing very fast, I was talking about the population of the incorporated area. Because of the way Cincy is incorporated, the city population does not see the results of suburban development. Even if capital is flowing into the city, the net result is that affluent people typically occupy more space than poor people so the population growth is stagnant. Downtown sees growth because so many buildings were abandoned/underutilized, but as a whole, Cincinnati may be developing but the census numbers are not indicating population growth.

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by Chemistry_Guy

I am agreeing with you, but the question is nuanced. Is downtown the city? Do suburbs count? Does growth=population? Is there a difference between adding 12000 professionals downtown vs opening up a 12000 bed homeless shelter? Unless you put the statistics in context, I don't think a collection of internet statistics really mean anything.

Who opened a 12,000 bed homeless shelter? I missed that one. The article puts the numbers in context with newly developed residential units being filled. I would say that is quantifiable. Downtown if the core of the city. Unless the core is stable, vibrant, and growing the rest of the city stands less of a chance of making a comeback. My hopes are not unlike yours, I want the city a whole to grow. But even with that hope there will always be neighbourhoods that lag and ones that lead. IMO - as long as we have overall growth then we are headed in the right direction. Time will tell.

I'm just in the midst of all the new development and am excited about it.

[Sarah Perry]

I think all the redevelopment in the urban core bodes well. What remains to be seen is what if anything is done to arrest the decay of many of the older areas surrounding the core.

[kjbrill]

Originally Posted by TomJones123

Report: Downtown Cincinnati population up 12% - Business Courier

I'm just saying give credit where it's due.

No problem giving credit where credit is due. But figures like 12% population growth can be a little like overkill. A 12% growth in the metro area would be like what 240,000 people? In downtown it was what, less than 1,100. A positive growth is always good and I don't believe Cincinnati is stuck in a rut, far from it. Many good things are happening. But to me the true measure of a city like Cincinnati is the business climate which remains very strong. The residential component of downtown could drop to zero, which it damn near did, and I would not be concerned providing the business environment remains strong. I would much prefer to see commercial buildings remain commercial than conversion to some yuppie residential condos. The total measure of downtown Cincy's vibrancy is not going to be set by the residential population, but how well the business climate does. We have plenty of areas for people to live, what we need are jobs so they can afford to live.

[TomJones123]

Well, Brill, there is a strong demographic of yuppies (that businesses desperately need) that do not want to commute to some bedroom community. Cincinnati is getting with the times by building a strong urban core, packed with housing and amenities because there is a very strong nationwide market for just that. The businesses that helped fund 3CDC obviously recognize this, since they are the ones who will hire those yuppies living in residential condos.

Which is better, a glut of office space? Or turning unused office space into residential units? You have a good business head, you tell me.