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These Metros were so close in population last year. Which do you think outpaced the other?
Sacramento and Cincinnati at 1.2M
San Fransisco and Phoenix at 4.3M (Detroit should be down to 4.3 now too)
Washington and Atlanta were just 1000 people apart last year in the 5.4 range (Miami should be in this group too)
Houston and Philadelphia at 5.9M
I think Sacramento will pass up Cincinnati (which will drop off the top 25.
I think Phoenix will shoot past San Fransisco and knock off Boston from the top ten.
I think both Washington and Atlanta will pass Miami but I am not sure which will be ahead.
And I think Houston will pass Philadelphia for the 5th spot.
SO my top twelve for the 2010 census
1. NYC no change
2. LA no change
3. Chicago no change
4. DFW no change
5. Houston up from 6
6. Philadelphia down from 5
7. Atlanta up from 9
8. Washington D.C. no change
9. Miami down from 7
10. Phoenix up from 12
11. Boston down from 10
12. Detroit down from 11
I don't know about Philly/Houston, but heres some food for thought.
Between 2008 and 2009, Greater Houston grew by more than 140,000, and at the same time, the Delaware Valley grew by more than 27,000.
Their respective populations during 2009:
DV: 5,968,252
GH: 5,867,489
Assuming that they grow by around the same size from 2009-2010, as they did from 2008-2009, here is what the numbers look like:
GH: 6,008,273
DV: 5,996,008
So there is a possibility that Greater Houston will overtake the Delaware Valley, but the margin of difference in growth is so small and can have us sitting right behing Philly come census results time by a few thousands just as well as us overtaking them.
I don't know about Philly/Houston, but heres some food for thought.
Between 2008 and 2009, Greater Houston grew by more than 140,000, and at the same time, the Delaware Valley grew by more than 27,000.
Their respective populations during 2009:
DV: 5,968,252
GH: 5,867,489
Assuming that they grow by around the same size from 2009-2010, as they did from 2008-2009, here is what the numbers look like:
GH: 6,008,273
DV: 5,996,008
So there is a possibility that Greater Houston will overtake the Delaware Valley, but the margin of difference in growth is so small and can have us sitting right behing Philly come census results time by a few thousands just as well as us overtaking them.
I think Brookings estimated the growth to be 180K for GH for 2009-2010, but I don't know if this is an overestimate.
I think Brookings estimated the growth to be 180K for GH for 2009-2010, but I don't know if this is an overestimate.
What do you think about the other Metros?
There is actually a very good chance at least Atlantic county NJ will be added back to the Philly MSA as it was prior to the 2000. Also Mercer county only missed by .8% on MSA in 2000 and very likely would be added back, these two counties would put the DV back up to about 6.7-6.8 million, also an increase to over 7.4 on CSA - these are extremely real possibilities as commuter patterns increased in both since the last census and these counties were part of the MSA since inception and were only removed in the last census
Sacramento and Cincinnati at 1.2M
San Fransisco and Phoenix at 4.3M (Detroit should be down to 4.3 now too)
I think Sacramento will pass up Cincinnati (which will drop off the top 25.
I think Phoenix will shoot past San Fransisco and knock off Boston from the top ten.
I think both Washington and Atlanta will pass Miami but I am not sure which will be ahead.
The Sac is growing faster than Cinci, Im thinking Pheonix will keep its lead over SF, but Phoenix still hasn't surpassed Detroit, let alone Boston so it won't get into the top 10, but I think Miami, DC, and Atlanta will keep their rankings(7-9), but by 2015 there should be a new order.
There is actually a very good chance at least Atlantic county NJ will be added back to the Philly MSA as it was prior to the 2000. Also Mercer county only missed by .8% on MSA in 2000 and very likely would be added back, these two counties would put the DV back up to about 6.7-6.8 million, also an increase to over 7.4 on CSA - these are extremely real possibilities as commuter patterns increased in both since the last census and these counties were part of the MSA since inception and were only removed in the last census
Yeah I just saw in another thread that you said they might be added back. I had not heard about it before. That would be a major boost for Philly if they are added back. Why were they removed anyway?
Yeah I just saw in another thread that you said they might be added back. I had not heard about it before. That would be a major boost for Philly if they are added back. Why were they removed anyway?
Two reasons drove the move - Mercer was moved because of the closure of the Fairless Steel works, nearly 16,000 people that commuted from Mercer to Bucks lost their jobs at the end of the 90s when US steel closed up shop. Commuter patterns have chnaged and should be back over the threshold with the new census. Remember Mercer is 11 miles from Philadelphia - it is a joke now that it isnt included, there are Philadelphia radio stations that broadcast from Mercer county
Atlantic county dropped below the threshold related to casino development and population growth, as the casinos increased employment the % of commuters back to Camden county fell below the threshold, that should again be above based on commuters to Camden county again. Also if Atlantic comes back, the Ocean City MSA will then become part of the Philly CSA again
I actually ran the math a few weeks ago - the odd thing is mercer will still meet the CSA criteria for the NYC CSA - Mercer based on the 2000 CSA definitions is the link that oddly based on the last census rules would combine NYC and Philly in CSA - will see on that but the math would actually do it
So if both are put back, which historically they always were Philly would move back to #4 ahead of DFW
Two reasons drove the move - Mercer was moved because of the closure of the Fairless Steel works, nearly 16,000 people that commuted from Mercer to Bucks lost their jobs at the end of the 90s when US steel closed up shop. Commuter patterns have chnaged and should be back over the threshold with the new census. Remember Mercer is 11 miles from Philadelphia - it is a joke now that it isnt included, there are Philadelphia radio stations that broadcast from Mercer county
Atlantic county dropped below the threshold related to casino development and population growth, as the casinos increased employment the % of commuters back to Camden county fell below the threshold, that should again be above based on commuters to Camden county again. Also if Atlantic comes back, the Ocean City MSA will then become part of the Philly CSA again
I actually ran the math a few weeks ago - the odd thing is mercer will still meet the CSA criteria for the NYC CSA - Mercer based on the 2000 CSA definitions is the link that oddly based on the last census rules would combine NYC and Philly in CSA - will see on that but the math would actually do it
So if both are put back, which historically they always were Philly would move back to #4 ahead of DFW
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