Will Los Angeles CSA pass New York City CSA in the Future? (moving, restaurant)

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by slo1318

It depends on how those places grew. Philadelphia had alot of outlying towns that were developed in the same time periods, so they would have followed similar growth patterns as the central city. Many were within the current city limits and were annexed.

Which Outlying towns, No Libs, Southwark, Spring Garden all walkable from City Hall. Annexation really didnt factor as much honestly. The city grew well beyonds its bounds by 1900

Interesting on the growths of places


Would say that LA and SF are already at or near their tops, expecially in the core.

Think the ATL may have trouble continuing the growth trajectory (if the economic factors show the weakness of the construct etc though may add another 2 million or so over the next 20 years. As for the large TX cities. All depends on the ability to attrack jobs and maintain infrastructure continuing to grow with some infill cant sustain the 20-30% growth rates long term, plus the bill for the infrastructure and the scale will start to come in. I honestly dont see infill similar to LA ever which means to scale that large the area becomes just too vast at 10+ million. This isnt wishing any ill will (I know people will react that way) It is a fact, all the crap built needs to be serviced and those costs rise with size. LA and SF can attest these days too as their infrastructure ages similar to what happened in the NE earlier. Also as the average age increase the required services increase, these are just market functions, they ebb and flow but the average age of Houston will get older, with mean age increment of 2 increased the average annual service cost increase by 8 or 10K, this becomes a greater tax burden etc. All is function of time and age, simple concepts really.

You referenced Philly in your post with the first increase in 60 years in the city. The driver is a dying off elderly and a youth movement in enough neighborhoods to offset the crumbling neighborhoods and ederly etc. Trace this nabe by nabe and you have a microcosm of the city dynamic. Oddly the NE cities are turning the cornming and getting younger, the WC cities are having an aging issue in many nabes the NE cities faced 50 or 60 years ago and the SE growers are just starting to mature in growth enought to start aging. This is all just cylcle in many ways. Also the SE and even WC cities have larger Hispanic populations which have the largest avergae family size, which on the whole is also shrinking. The household size plays out, Philly for example has like 98% of the households as in 1950 within the city, just .9 less people per household etc.


We will see, change will always happen and what is growing today probably wont be in 20 or 30 years and the growth may be someplace else (old or new)

[RaymondChandlerLives]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

What's also interesting is a comparison of the structural density of "far flung" neighborhoods of both cities. I selected Roxborough in Northwest Philly and an area in Los Angeles near USC.

On Jamestown Street (which is like a lot of other streets in the NW), there are 38 houses on the north side of the block.

Philadelphia, PA - Google Maps

On Maple Avenue between 28th and 31st, there are 14 houses on the west side of the block.

Pico / Union, Los Angeles, CA - Google Maps

There are way more houses on Philly blocks even in remote neighborhoods like Roxborough.

what is the point of all this? That LA's core isnt dense as Philly's. Hate to break it to you--it is.

[munchitup]

Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives

what is the point of all this? That LA's core isnt dense as Philly's. Hate to break it to you--it is.

He also didn't measure the block in the same way. For Philly he took one block and measured it lengthwise and in LA took the butt end of three blocks and used that as one block. Further edit: that area he used is not even Pico Union, it is historic South Central

On 30th St. between Main and Maple I counted around 28 residences. Some of those were detached single family, a bungalow court, an apartment complex, a duplex and one home that was divided into 4 units.

I tried not to cherry-pick a really dense looking street. The blocks in this neighborhood are slightly larger than the blocks in the Philly example. However, on one end of the block is a large commercial building, effectively making the residential portion of the blocks the same size.

And if you look at this view: http://g.co/maps/2tz3g
you see that there are some buildings in the back, well those are residences as well. Something a casual observer may not notice.

Also got to love the old right of way from the PE trains, which contrary to popular belief, are what led to the rapid growth the the core of LA (Not cars) http://g.co/maps/qjs3s

[gwillyfromphilly]

Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives

what is the point of all this? That LA's core isnt dense as Philly's. Hate to break it to you--it is.

The LA area might be denser over a much larger area but the core of LA is not as dense as the core of Philly.

[Gateway Region]

Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives

what is the point of all this? That LA's core isnt dense as Philly's. Hate to break it to you--it is.

The point is that density and population does not judge urbanity. All aspects are taken into account. If this was the case for population as an example then Jacksonville would be the most urban out of the big four cities in Orlando. However, everyone knows it's less urban than Orlando, Tampa and Miami regardless of population stats. Same goes for density. All measurments of urbanity needs to be taken into account. LA fails miserably at anything rembling urban and its an urban planner and urban lovers NIGHTMARE!!! Nice freeways going on.

[munchitup]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

The LA area might be denser over a much larger area but the core of LA is not as dense as the core of Philly.

They are tough to compare because they have wildly different urban forms, but both are about the same in the core. Just a matter of preference really.

[RaymondChandlerLives]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

The LA area might be over denser over a much larger area but the core of LA is not as dense as the core of Philly.

Sure about that? Define core. At 135 sq miles, LA is denser than Philly 135 sw miles. At 47 sq miles, LA matches SF in density. At 48 sq miles it is more dense than Boston. Chicago might be more dense at 50 sq miles, but it won't be a huge difference. A 227 sq mile chunk of land surrounding DTLA surpasses Chicago's 2.7 million. I used 2000 census numbers vs 2010 stats for the other cities.

Again Bajan's claims that Los Angeles can't densify are obsolete, it already is dense. Can it densify further without addressing some of its infrastructure needs? Remains to be seen.

[RaymondChandlerLives]

Originally Posted by Gateway Region

The point is that density and population does not judge urbanity. All aspects are taken into account. If this was the case for population as an example then Jacksonville would be the most urban out of the big four cities in Orlando. However, everyone knows it's less urban than Orlando, Tampa and Miami regardless of population stats. Same goes for density. All measurments of urbanity needs to be taken into account. LA fails miserably at anything rembling urban and its an urban planner and urban lovers NIGHTMARE!!! Nice freeways going on.

I just saw a guy zone out at a light. The person behind him honked so he would move.

I care more about that than your opinion of LA. Same with Bajan. Now get back on topic.

L.A. is dense and has been for a while. It has survived quite well despite an incomplete rail system, mainly because its streets are more accommodating for cars. It can, and probably will densify more, but it does need to expand its PT, to ease congestion. A supplement to the car, if you will.

[munchitup]

Originally Posted by Gateway Region

Nice freeways going on.

I actually find some of the super old freeways kind of attractive. Particularly heading north east out of the city, the Arroyo Seca Pkwy.

[RaymondChandlerLives]

I got the error with Pico-Union. Funny thing is, all it takes is one or two apartment complexes in a street that's mostly single-family to even the score. That's common too. Something else that's a common, a single family house surrounded by massive apartment complexes. You see this a lot in Hollywood, between Sunset and Fountain. They're like relics of what was "supposed" to look like, haha.