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Is your data GMP or GDP? Some of those figures look weird to me, and if you could provide a link that would be good. Not trying to call you out, but just for my personal study and research.
It is metro area product, and it is from the very same site
So taking the growth rate of oil from 2003 to 2009 (using the average from $40 to $75 dollars a barrel) and the current 35% estimate of Houston economy.
The growth from $280 to $402 Billion of ($122 Billion) ~ 70% of this growth can be correlated to oil price or $86 Billion.
Without ~ 13% growth over the 6 years which IS very considerable, but to thoink the economy grew by 48% naturally in that time period is like thinking Lynx was worth $286 dollars a share in the early 2000s
This is simple calculation but probably close, so said another way oil prices accounted for 70% of the topline growth, so yes it is very considerable. Having said, the adjusted number for houston is still very admirable and better than most metros during the same time period and DOES speak to the overall strength and diversity of the economy. But seriously to straight face a $122 Billion (nearly 50%) growth in six years is a tad (well more than a tad) of a reach.
So taking the growth rate of oil from 2003 to 2009 (using the average from $40 to $75 dollars a barrel) and the current 35% estimate of Houston economy.
The growth from $280 to $402 Billion of ($122 Billion) ~ 70% of this growth can be correlated to oil price or $86 Billion.
Without ~ 13% growth over the 6 years which IS very considerable, but to thoink the economy grew by 48% naturally in that time period is like thinking Lynx was worth $286 dollars a share in the early 2000s
This is simple calculation but probably close, so said another way oil prices accounted for 70% of the topline growth, so yes it is very considerable. Having said, the adjusted number for houston is still very admirable and better than most metros during the same time period and DOES speak to the overall strength and diversity of the economy. But seriously to straight face a $122 Billion (nearly 50%) growth in six years is a tad (well more than a tad) of a reach.
The real growth is very strong regardless
lol, how do you get from current 35% due to oil to 70 percent from Oil?? lol you are funny.
Wouldn't the GDP rise after an oil spike and fall after it falls?
WHy was the Houston GDP rising fast before the spike and slowed down after the spike? If anything the spike in prices hurt the GDP, because the rate of growth slowed down considerably after the 08 Spike
lol, how do you get from current 35% due to oil to 70 percent from Oil?? lol you are funny.
Wouldn't the GDP rise after an oil spike and fall after it falls?
WHy was the Houston GDP rising fast before the spike and slowed down after the spike? If anything the spike in prices hurt the GDP, because the rate of growth slowed down considerably after the 08 Spike
70% of dollar growth, 35% is your figure for 2009 percentage of the oil economy. I just plugged your numbers in
very krewd analysis, similar to revenue valuation in m@a - what I did isnt perfect but a 10,000 foot view. i would need to model it more to be more precise but think I am +/- 5% the way i did it.
show me one example where ANY of those 4 metros added cities that are not in their metro to the count.
Dude MSA's are in constant flux. The OMB adds Cities and counties to metroes all the time. DC's metro is blowing up faster than Jessica Simpson. Houstons metro is 10,000 sq mi,Dallas 10,000 sq mi.,Chicago 10,000 sq mi., Phillys less than 1/2 that amount. Meanwhile the OMB takes away a county that is 15 miles from Philly and gives it to NYC 70 miles away.
On your latter point HTown, the up and down impacts but i used a low median to estimate the impact over the cummulative time period, so some spikes yes but overall the economy is stable and diverse, also some of this was played with on accruals, when revenue was take or pushed, also inherant gas prices, which actually would more time align to reveune, so i simplied with a low midpoint to normalize impact growth versus natural growth
70% of dollar growth, 35% is your figure for 2009 percentage of the oil economy. I just plugged your numbers in
very krewd analysis, similar to revenue valuation in m@a - what I did isnt perfect but a 10,000 foot view. i would need to model it more to be more precise but think I am +/- 5% the way i did it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rainrock
Dude MSA's are in constant flux. The OMB adds Cities and counties to metroes all the time. DC's metro is blowing up faster than Jessica Simpson. Houstons metro is 10,000 sq mi,Dallas 10,000 sq mi.,Chicago 10,000 sq mi., Phillys less than 1/2 that amount. Meanwhile the OMB takes away a county that is 15 miles from Philly and gives it to NYC 70 miles away.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
On your latter point HTown, the up and down impacts but i used a low median to estimate the impact over the cummulative time period, so some spikes yes but overall the economy is stable and diverse, also some of this was played with on accruals, when revenue was take or pushed, also inherant gas prices, which actually would more time align to reveune, so i simplied with a low midpoint to normalize impact growth versus natural growth
The 13% overall is quite good, seriously
okay, let me put it in a way that even an imbecile would understand.
why did the gdp increase by 35 Billion a year from 2004- 2008 (before the big spike), but increase by only 5B a year after the spike.
where is your 120 bucks a barrel coming in here? For most of HOuston's GDP growth the price of oil was low. When the price skyrocketed, the gdp slowed considerably. how on earth can it be due to oil?
Also the natural growth rate fairly consistent with the population growth which makes sense - all the increased jobs also add to this metric so it makes sense - seriously. i am not trying to be hard because the real growth is still good but how can you straight face a 6 year 50% growth?????
Dude MSA's are in constant flux. The OMB adds Cities and counties to metroes all the time. DC's metro is blowing up faster than Jessica Simpson. Houstons metro is 10,000 sq mi,Dallas 10,000 sq mi.,Chicago 10,000 sq mi., Phillys less than 1/2 that amount. Meanwhile the OMB takes away a county that is 15 miles from Philly and gives it to NYC 70 miles away.
Its only 10000 square miles if you think people can live on water.
Both Houston and DFW have 8,900 square miles of land. The Delaware Valley (Philly) has 5,100 square miles of land.
Yes, its still alot more land, just stop exaggerating so much.
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