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New York 10,096,738
Los Angeles 4,440,970
Houston 3,610,348
Phoenix 2,864,038 Chicago 2,652,388
San Antonio 2,289,756
Dallas 1,759,392 Philadelphia 1,686,166
San Diego 1,683,961
San Jose 1,429,833
Both Chicago and Philadelphia are growing...There was an article in the Tribune this past July that Chicago grew by 23,000 people from July 08-July 09. Estimates also show Philadelphia approaching 1.6 million now
I don't see Chicago loosing 200,000 people and Philadelphia staying stagnant for the next fifty years, especially when one factors in that urban living is making an undeniable comeback. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia pushed its way back up to number 5...
Both Chicago and Philadelphia are growing...There was an article in the Tribune this past July that Chicago grew by 23,000 people from July 08-July 09. Estimates also show Philadelphia approaching 1.6 million now
I don't see Chicago loosing 200,000 people and Philadelphia staying stagnant for the next fifty years, especially when one factors in that urban living is making an undeniable comeback. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia pushed its way back up to number 5...
This is possible.... I'm not saying otherwise. I'm just going by the numbers of the last 10 years. And I gave an obvious disclaimer saying that both of these cities are very unpredictable so I was clearly open to being wrong.
I didn't include Philadelphia in the list because if you look back in the past 60 years, Philadelphia has lost about 700,000 people. NY will probably grow about 3,000,000. Los Angeles will grow about 1,000,000 people and then stop growing. Phoenix will probably do the same.
1) New York, NY 11,300,000
2) Los Angeles, CA 4,900,000
3) Houston, TX 4,400,000
4) Chicago, IL 4,200,000
5) Phoenix, AZ 3,300,000
6) San Antonio, TX 2,900,000
7) Dallas, TX 2,500,000
8) San Jose, CA 1,800,000
9) San Diego, CA 1,700,000
10) San Francisco, CA 1,000,000
No, San Diego has to be more populated than that. SD should be over 2,000,000. San Diego also should be over San Jose. Current population of San Diego is 1,400,000.
San Diego has a 100% chance of being in the top 10 in 2050. Here are the others with that kind of big chance: NYC, LA, CHI, PHE, SA, SD, DAL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by migol84
I'm going by sheer trends. This list of mine is very iffy.... especially for Chicago and Philadelphia because both of these cities can be unpredictable. But if trends were to follow exactly the last 10 years then this is what it would likely look like in the next 40 years. Yes, I did the math.
New York 10,096,738
Los Angeles 4,440,970
Houston 3,610,348
Phoenix 2,864,038
Chicago 2,652,388 *
San Antonio 2,289,756
Dallas 1,759,392
Philadelphia 1,686,166 *
San Diego 1,683,961
San Jose 1,429,833
As I've stated, I'm only following the trends. So don't go hating my list.... I'm not preferring any city over the other. And my list can also be way off because I'm just averaging the number of population that has moved in per year in the last 10 years and multiplied that by 40. I think there are other cities that can probably make this list but I'm too lazy to look up the numbers. Asterisks are on Chicago and Philadelphia because as I've mentioned, they have been very unpredictable in the last 20-30 years. One decade they add, the next they subtract.... so, yeah.
Question - Is there a ten year growth rate over time that would provide a good estimate of 40 years later?
San Diego has a good one . They say the city population in 2010 can be somewhere near 1,387,000. In 2050, the predicted population of San Diego will be 1,956,000.
Both Chicago and Philadelphia are growing...There was an article in the Tribune this past July that Chicago grew by 23,000 people from July 08-July 09. Estimates also show Philadelphia approaching 1.6 million now
I don't see Chicago loosing 200,000 people and Philadelphia staying stagnant for the next fifty years, especially when one factors in that urban living is making an undeniable comeback. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia pushed its way back up to number 5...
I agree with that. Chicago lost population from the 1950's through 1990 as almost all cities did during that time. The big issue is a lot of cities have increased their physical size, so you don't realize that the footprints of houston and dallas from 1950 would have less people today than they did back then - they just annexed hundred of square miles of land and built tens of thousands of new houses (which happened everywhere, but it was in the suburbs instead of the central city in many northern metros). There are of course exceptions such as NYC and San Fran.
Since 1990 though Chicago finally was able to get through the white flight, the families moving to the suburbs, and transition its economy to be one that is diverse and service oriented. There are still issues, but hands down the city is more healthy now than it has been in about 50 years. It might not grow by hundreds of thousands, but there's absolutely no reason why it should lose hundreds of thousands of people like it did 40 years ago. It's a different city today. I think people see trends and just assume they'll continue forever.
I see the city to continue to waft right around 3,000,000, or possibly grow to a degree if the housing market and economy pick back up.
I just saw the other day the city has added 40,000 whites, 30,000 hispanics and 25,000 asians since 2000. The loss has been because the black population declined by 130,000.
Probably the first time in 60 years the white population has grown.
I'm simply going by the numbers San Diego gained on average per year, then I multiply by 40 and add that number to it's current population. Nobody knows of course how much a city gains per year, except all you can do is average the numbers out. Maybe San Diego will have 1.6 million by 2030, maybe not. Maybe Houston might pass Chicago, maybe not. Maybe Fort Worth might climb to the top 10 largest cities, maybe not. Fort Worth for instance might certainly not have a dramatic increase like it had in the last 10 years, which is only eclipsed by New York, Houston, Phoenix and San Antonio in city proper gains. I'm just going by the numbers, so anything could happen. And like I said my estimates might not hold out by much because I'm just basing it on the last 10 years. I could even average out the number in the last 100 years and it still wouldn't tell the entire story. So I'm just going by the most recent trends.
Don't tell me - 580 each year? So you followed the USC 2009s for 1,306,301.
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