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View Poll Results: Do you think most of the metros will stay consistent with the trends now for next decade?
Yes 12 22.22%
No 9 16.67%
There might be altering some years but most likely yes 22 40.74%
There will be drastic changes so most likely no 8 14.81%
Other Option 3 5.56%
Voters: 54. You may not vote on this poll

Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 10-25-2010, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,171 posts, read 12,179,036 times
Reputation: 4047

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I'm going to do the components in population change for some of my favorite cities/metros, but I wanted to make a thread on the mechanism for their population shifts (whether increase or decrease).

If I don't include your city/metro please post the name of the metro/city and I will post on that as well when I can.

Chicagoland (Chicago MSA):

2000 & 2001: 9,192,501
Birth: 180,089
Death: 88,447
Domestic Migration: -69,264
International Immigration: 71,106
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 94,185

2002: 9,245,135
Birth: 141,220
Death: 70,804
Domestic Migration: -68,594
International Immigration: 50,473
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 52,634

2003: 9,286,162
Birth: 140,928
Death: 70,056
Domestic Migration: -72,392
International Immigration: 40,344
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 41,027

2004: 9,332,090
Birth: 142,927
Death: 69,459
Domestic Migration: -65,648
International Immigration: 38,716
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 45,928

2005: 9,362,080
Birth: 138,741
Death: 68,894
Domestic Migration: -77,413
International Immigration: 37,933
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 29,990

2006: 9,398,855
Birth: 138,252
Death: 67,845
Domestic Migration: -73,066
International Immigration: 38,584
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 36,775

2007: 9,451,936
Birth: 139,237
Death: 67,373
Domestic Migration: -52,317
International Immigration: 34,082
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 53,081

2008: 9,515,636
Birth: 138,954
Death: 67,297
Domestic Migration: -42,587
International Immigration: 33,358
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 63,700

2009: 9,580,567
Birth: 139,860
Death: 68,307
Domestic Migration: -40,389
International Immigration: 33,363
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 64,931

Southland (Los Angeles MSA):

2000 & 2001: 12,525,736
Birth: 251,242
Death: 94,561
Domestic Migration: -131,475
International Immigration: 145,552
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 160,109

2002: 12,634,977
Birth: 196,949
Death: 76,989
Domestic Migration: -109,081
International Immigration: 108,487
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 109,241

2003: 12,717,433
Birth: 197,857
Death: 76,592
Domestic Migration: -119,572
International Immigration: 93,158
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 82,456

2004: 12,764,590
Birth: 196,469
Death: 78,851
Domestic Migration: -140,643
International Immigration: 83,517
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 47,157

2005: 12,761,175
Birth: 196,420
Death: 75,376
Domestic Migration: -199,800
International Immigration: 87,057
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -3,415

2006: 12,713,660
Birth: 194,684
Death: 77,921
Domestic Migration: -243,722
International Immigration: 86,426
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -47,515

2007: 12,692,603
Birth: 195,976
Death: 76,104
Domestic Migration: -222,018
International Immigration: 78,155
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -21,057

2008: 12,768,395
Birth: 195,244
Death: 76,351
Domestic Migration: -118,909
International Immigration: 75,265
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 75,792

2009: 12,874,797
Birth: 190,001
Death: 77,968
Domestic Migration: -79,900
International Immigration: 75,062
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 106,402

Galveston Bay (Houston MSA):

2000 & 2001: 4,851,189
Birth: 103,283
Death: 36,319
Domestic Migration: 5,526
International Immigration: 50,281
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 135,782

2002: 4,978,638
Birth: 84,836
Death: 30,437
Domestic Migration: 24,472
International Immigration: 37,990
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 127,449

2003: 5,084,017
Birth: 88,282
Death: 30,113
Domestic Migration: 2,824
International Immigration: 33,099
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 105,379

2004: 5,190,444
Birth: 89,031
Death: 29,922
Domestic Migration: 6,370
International Immigration: 30,221
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 106,427

2005: 5,299,567
Birth: 90,063
Death: 30,127
Domestic Migration: 6,104
International Immigration: 31,686
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 109,123

2006: 5,484,883
Birth: 92,424
Death: 30,542
Domestic Migration: 91,985
International Immigration: 31,707
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 185,316

2007: 5,597,674
Birth: 95,473
Death: 31,064
Domestic Migration: 19,466
International Immigration: 28,779
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 112,791

2008: 5,726,705
Birth: 96,458
Death: 32,450
Domestic Migration: 37,158
International Immigration: 27,876
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year:+ 129,031

2009: 5,867,489
Birth: 96,404
Death: 33,213
Domestic Migration: 49,662
International Immigration: 27,996
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 140,784

North Texas (Dallas-Fort Worth MSA):

2000 & 2001: 5,354,623
Birth: 116,026
Death: 40,038
Domestic Migration: 57,823
International Immigration: 56,108
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 193,079

2002: 5,476,578
Birth: 95,695
Death: 33,128
Domestic Migration: 13,847
International Immigration: 42,193
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 121,955

2003: 5,582,033
Birth: 97,379
Death: 32,202
Domestic Migration: -1,389
International Immigration: 36,731
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 105,455

2004: 5,689,982
Birth: 98,193
Death: 32,825
Domestic Migration: 8,203
International Immigration: 33,856
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 107,949

2005: 5,816,407
Birth: 99,029
Death: 33,361
Domestic Migration: 23,471
International Immigration: 35,399
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 126,425

2006: 5,999,411
Birth: 101,272
Death: 33,166
Domestic Migration: 76,443
International Immigration: 35,545
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 183,004

2007: 6,156,652
Birth: 103,420
Death: 33,989
Domestic Migration: 50,566
International Immigration: 32,369
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 157,241

2008: 6,301,085
Birth: 104,864
Death: 35,507
Domestic Migration: 42,857
International Immigration: 31,430
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 144,433

2009: 6,447,615
Birth: 105,621
Death: 36,142
Domestic Migration: 45,241
International Immigration: 31,571
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 146,530

The Potomac (Washington DC MSA):

2000 & 2001: 4,927,274
Birth: 92,287
Death: 36,750
Domestic Migration: 19,448
International Immigration: 49,717
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 131,091

2002: 5,014,571
Birth: 74,781
Death: 30,511
Domestic Migration: 1,377
International Immigration: 36,262
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 87,297

2003: 5,086,376
Birth: 75,790
Death: 30,033
Domestic Migration: -8,734
International Immigration: 28,210
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 71,805

2004: 5,158,524
Birth: 77,764
Death: 30,852
Domestic Migration: -14,785
International Immigration: 36,343
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 72,148

2005: 5,229,267
Birth: 78,745
Death: 30,336
Domestic Migration: -17,011
International Immigration: 35,552
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 70,743

2006: 5,265,012
Birth: 80,062
Death: 29,787
Domestic Migration: -51,414
International Immigration: 37,697
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 35,745

2007: 5,313,033
Birth: 82,067
Death: 30,353
Domestic Migration: -36,945
International Immigration: 32,573
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 48,021

2008: 5,377,936
Birth: 80,363
Death: 30,290
Domestic Migration: -17,430
International Immigration: 32,216
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 64,903

2009: 5,476,241
Birth: 79,101
Death: 30,948
Domestic Migration: 18,189
International Immigration: 31,904
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 98,305

Atlanta (Atlanta MSA):

2000 & 2001: 4,432,950
Birth: 90,467
Death: 33,722
Domestic Migration: 63,650
International Immigration: 35,807
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 184,969

2002: 4,555,490
Birth: 73,230
Death: 27,371
Domestic Migration: 26,125
International Immigration: 26,752
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 122,540

2003: 4,673,146
Birth: 74,392
Death: 27,657
Domestic Migration: 22,224
International Immigration: 23,088
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 117,656

2004: 4,802,300
Birth: 76,605
Death: 28,363
Domestic Migration: 32,085
International Immigration: 21,863
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 129,154

2005: 4,947,012
Birth: 77,731
Death: 27,827
Domestic Migration: 51,305
International Immigration: 22,758
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 144,712

2006: 5,119,641
Birth: 80,987
Death: 28,789
Domestic Migration: 99,262
International Immigration: 23,009
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 172,629

2007: 5,267,527
Birth: 83,567
Death: 29,257
Domestic Migration: 72,071
International Immigration: 20,827
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 147,886

2008: 5,385,586
Birth: 83,586
Death: 30,524
Domestic Migration: 44,419
International Immigration: 20,216
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 118,059

2009: 5,475,213
Birth: 83,003
Death: 31,591
Domestic Migration: 17,479
International Immigration: 20,288
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 89,627

South Florida (Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA):

2000 & 2001: 5,120,256
Birth: 84,381
Death: 59,711
Domestic Migration: -5,851
International Immigration: 80,221
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 112,692

2002: 5,212,602
Birth: 68,410
Death: 48,119
Domestic Migration: -1,499
International Immigration: 62,654
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 92,346

2003: 5,280,671
Birth: 69,080
Death: 48,051
Domestic Migration: -20,179
International Immigration: 56,216
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 68,069

2004: 5,362,678
Birth: 69,693
Death: 47,791
Domestic Migration: -3,295
International Immigration: 52,514
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 82,007

2005: 5,443,159
Birth: 70,298
Death: 47,442
Domestic Migration: -10,086
International Immigration: 56,673
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 80,481

2006: 5,466,743
Birth: 71,961
Death: 47,286
Domestic Migration: -70,414
International Immigration: 58,160
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 23,584

2007: 5,465,183
Birth: 73,597
Death: 46,162
Domestic Migration: -93,453
International Immigration: 54,639
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 1,560

2008: 5,501,752
Birth: 71,817
Death: 46,484
Domestic Migration: -53,037
International Immigration: 51,384
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 36,569

2009: 5,547,051
Birth: 70,298
Death: 47,060
Domestic Migration: -29,321
International Immigration: 51,548
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 45,299

Tri-State Area (New York City MSA):

2000 & 2001: 18,490,029
Birth: 325,245
Death: 179,177
Domestic Migration: -218,481
International Immigration: 200,922
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 167,027

2002: 18,590,085
Birth: 258,410
Death: 147,873
Domestic Migration: -207,348
International Immigration: 147,104
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 100,056

2003: 18,671,320
Birth: 260,838
Death: 143,875
Domestic Migration: -236,039
International Immigration: 125,082
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 81,235

2004: 18,747,431
Birth: 261,955
Death: 142,855
Domestic Migration: -247,541
International Immigration: 110,156
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 76,111

2005: 18,798,114
Birth: 254,197
Death: 140,235
Domestic Migration: -283,328
International Immigration: 113,065
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 50,683

2006: 18,825,633
Birth: 250,259
Death: 134,715
Domestic Migration: -288,260
International Immigration: 114,870
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 27,519

2007: 18,901,167
Birth: 256,195
Death: 135,487
Domestic Migration: -220,521
International Immigration: 103,640
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 75,534

2008: 18,968,501
Birth: 253,731
Death: 137,584
Domestic Migration: -150,259
International Immigration: 100,643
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 67,334

2009: 19,069,796
Birth: 250,337
Death: 141,948
Domestic Migration: -110,278
International Immigration: 100,669
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 101,295

The Bay Area (San Francisco-Oakland MSA):

2000 & 2001: 4,179,628
Birth: 71,550
Death: 37,162
Domestic Migration: -28,426
International Immigration: 45,892
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 55,888

2002: 4,165,678
Birth: 56,482
Death: 29,735
Domestic Migration: -78,931
International Immigration: 34,296
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -13,950

2003: 4,153,143
Birth: 56,724
Death: 29,365
Domestic Migration: -74,108
International Immigration: 29,622
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -12,535

2004: 4,143,522
Birth: 55,870
Death: 28,955
Domestic Migration: -64,631
International Immigration: 26,852
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: -9,621

2005: 4,149,607
Birth: 55,306
Death: 28,400
Domestic Migration: -51,031
International Immigration: 27,983
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 6,085

2006: 4,162,783
Birth: 55,506
Death: 28,922
Domestic Migration: -44,753
International Immigration: 27,867
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 13,176

2007: 4,202,186
Birth: 56,634
Death: 28,061
Domestic Migration: -19,866
International Immigration: 25,264
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 39,403

2008: 4,260,236
Birth: 56,673
Death: 28,730
Domestic Migration: 6,394
International Immigration: 24,367
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 58,050

2009: 4,317,853
Birth: 55,577
Death: 29,650
Domestic Migration: 7,977
International Immigration: 24,376
The Gain/Loss (+/-) from the previous year: + 57,617



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Old 10-25-2010, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Virginia Highland, GA
1,940 posts, read 3,841,678 times
Reputation: 1241
Atlanta numbers are crazy.
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Old 10-25-2010, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,263,728 times
Reputation: 1438
I'm pretty surprised of Miami, this city seems to attract many people, young and elder !
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Old 10-25-2010, 01:28 PM
 
12,201 posts, read 17,562,133 times
Reputation: 3350
Houston is a beast!
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
3,939 posts, read 3,893,286 times
Reputation: 4427
The growth rates of Houston, Dallas and Atlanta are not sustainable over the long term. Also, I wonder if so many people would be moving there if the cost of living were not so cheap.
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
13,403 posts, read 20,277,910 times
Reputation: 10181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
The growth rates of Houston, Dallas and Atlanta are not sustainable over the long term. Also, I wonder if so many people would be moving there if the cost of living were not so cheap.
I think it also has to do with the economies (particularly in Houston and Dallas). It is cheap, but most of it has to do with job situations.

The weather is a plus if youre like me and hate cold weather.
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Dallas, Texas
1,807 posts, read 2,097,999 times
Reputation: 970
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
The growth rates of Houston, Dallas and Atlanta are not sustainable over the long term. Also, I wonder if so many people would be moving there if the cost of living were not so cheap.
Yep. All these cities will eventually reach a leveling-out-point: infill will happen, prices will go up, and other smaller cities will get boosts for the lower cost of living they will provide. It is just a matter of how long this natural process will take.
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 27,244,461 times
Reputation: 7562
I am Thinking that LA is in trouble. I think a recovery in the economy is gonna hit them hard. It looks like the downturn in the economy stalled people living LA, and I think that when the economy recovers, people are gonna start leaving again.

I don't think I can say the same for ATL and the Bay, the numbers seems different
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 27,244,461 times
Reputation: 7562
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
The growth rates of Houston, Dallas and Atlanta are not sustainable over the long term. Also, I wonder if so many people would be moving there if the cost of living were not so cheap.
I can't speak much for ATL, but the housing rates in Houston and Dallas have been stable, we have only seen slight increases even with the huge jumps in pop.

The economy in both metros are growing steadily so I think they can maintain the level of growth for at least another 30 years. The space is there, the jobs growth potential is there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by justme02 View Post
I think it also has to do with the economies (particularly in Houston and Dallas). It is cheap, but most of it has to do with job situations.


The weather is a plus if youre like me and hate cold weather.
Exactly. both cities are branching out into new fields, and creating new economic sectors for the cities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fillmont View Post
Yep. All these cities will eventually reach a leveling-out-point: infill will happen, prices will go up, and other smaller cities will get boosts for the lower cost of living they will provide. It is just a matter of how long this natural process will take.
if you are banking on infill then you are going to have a really long wait. the Houston metro is only half filled with development (not counting the empty pastures and fields within the cities itself)
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Old 10-25-2010, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,263,728 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago South Sider View Post
The growth rates of Houston, Dallas and Atlanta are not sustainable over the long term. Also, I wonder if so many people would be moving there if the cost of living were not so cheap.
Houston is big, has a diverse economy, a very young population, no zoning, low taxes, not many regulations.I think the big Houston growth will last 3 or 4 decades.
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