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By City (2010):
- Charlotte: 731,424
- Raleigh: 403,892
Raleigh MSA:
- Wake County, NC: 900,993
- Franklin County, NC: 60,619
- Johnston County, NC: 168,878 Total:1,130,490
Raleigh CSA:
- Wake County, NC: 900,993
- Franklin County, NC: 60,619
- Johnston County, NC: 168,878
- Person County, NC: 39,464
- Orange County, NC: 133,801
- Durham County, NC: 267,587
- Chatham County, NC: 63,505
- Harnett County, NC: 114,678 Total:1,749,525
Charlotte MSA:
- Anson County, NC: 26,948
- Cabarrus County, NC: 178,011
- Gaston County, NC: 206,086
- Mecklenburg County, NC: 919,628
- Union County, NC: 201,292
- York County, SC: N/A Total: 1,531,965 (Not complete until SC release)
Charlotte CSA:
- Anson County, NC: 26,948
- Cabarrus County, NC: 178,011
- Gaston County, NC: 206,086
- Mecklenburg County, NC: 919,628
- Union County, NC: 201,292
- York County, SC: N/A
- Catawba County, NC: 154,358
- Iredell County, NC: 159,437
- Rowan County, NC: 138,428
- Cleveland County, NC: 98,078
- Lincoln County, NC: 78,265
- Stanly County, NC: 60,585
- Alexander County, NC: 37,198
- Lancaster County, SC: N/A
- Chesterfield County, SC: N/A
- Chester County, SC: N/A Total:2,258,314 (Not complete until SC is released)
Philadelphia CSA (Without PA & DE):
- Cecil County, MD: 101,108
- Salem County, NJ: 66,083
- Camden County, NJ: 513,657
- Burlington County, NJ: 448,734
- Gloucester County, NJ: 288,288
- Cumberland County, NJ: 156,898
- New Castle County, DE: 538,479 Total: 2,113,247 (Not complete until PA is released)
The data for the Charlotte CSA is a little off. Catawba and Alexander are not apart of the "official" Charlotte CSA. Other than that the figures look correct. I think Charlotte's CSA is only 12 counties but all of the counties, to my memory, seem correct.
U.S. Census Bureau Delivers North Carolina's 2010 Census Population Totals, Including First Look at Race and Hispanic Origin Data for Legislative - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20110302/pl_usnw/DC57901 - broken link)
WOW!!! All state estimates showed that Wake was the largest.
Anyways, here are the city stats.
U.S. Census Bureau Delivers North Carolina's 2010 Census Population Totals, Including First Look at Race and Hispanic Origin Data for Legislative - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20110302/pl_usnw/DC57901 - broken link)
Wow! Charlotte at 731k! Raleigh at 404k! The data seems to confirm what me and several other NC posters were thinking. The bulk of NCs growth is concentrated in these two areas. I will give my state of NC summary later, when I get to my desktop. But I was also shocked the Mecklenburg is still the largest county in NC. I was equally shocked the Union passed up Gaston county and Concord passed up Gastonia. This makes me even more eager to see SC numbers. It seems Charlotte and Raleigh have equal pull on the population metric in NC. IMO, I would compare the TRUE core counties of Charlotte's CSA of: Mecklenburg, Gaston, Iredell, Union, Cabarrus, and Rowan to Raleigh-Durham's CSA to see the overall pull of each area on the state. Now the economic factor is different. It would be nice to see GDP by county.
countywide increase nearly the same rate as Charlotte population increase, but far lower than Huntersville
region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/south central
Wake
900,993 (627,846 - 2000 population)
+43.5 increase
countywide increase nearly the same rate as Raleigh and Cary
region: Raleigh-Durham CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/northeast central
Guilford
488,406 (421,048 - 2000 population)
16% increase
countywide increase 4-5% lower than Greensboro and High Point city increases
region: Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/north central
Forsyth
350,670 (306,067 - 2000 population)
14.6% increase
countywide increase around 8-9% lower than Winston-Salem city increase
region: Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/north central
Cumberland
319,431 (302,963 - 2000 population)
5.4% increase
countywide increase around 60% lower than Fayetteville city increase
region: Fayetteville MSA, core county
state region: sandhills/southeast central
Durham
267,587 (223,314 - 2000 population)
19.8% increase
countywide increase around 3% lower than Durham city increase
region: Raleigh-Durham CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/northeast central
Buncombe
238,318 (206,330 - 2000 population)
15.5% increase
countywide increase 6% lower than Asheville city
region, Asheville MSA, core county
state region: Appalachian mountains/west
Gaston
206,086 (190,395 - 2000 population)
8.3% increase
countywide increase nearly equal to Gastonia city increase
region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, core county
state region: piedmont/south central
New Hanover
202,667 (160,307 - 2000 population)
26.4% increase
countywide increase around 14% lower than Wilmington city increase
region: Wilmington MSA, core county
state region: coast, southern
Union
201,292 (123,677 - 2000 population)
62.8% increase
region: region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, suburban county
state region: piedmont/south central
Cabarrus
178,011 (131,063 - 2000 population)
35.8% increase
countywide increase around 6% lower than Concord city increase, but 20% higher than Kannapolis
region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, suburban county
state region: piedmont/south central
Onslow
177,772 (150,355 - 2000 population)
18.2% increase
countywide increase around 13% higher than Jacksonville city increase
region: Jacksonville MSA, core county
state region: coast, southern
Johnston
168,878 (121,965 - 2000 population)
38.5% increase
region: Raleigh-Durham CSA, suburban county
state region: eastern piedmont and interior coastal plain
Pitt
168,148 (133,798 - 2000 population)
25.7% increase
countywide increase around 14% lower than Greenville city increase
region: Greenville MSA, core county
state region: northern interior coastal plain
Davidson
162,878 (147,246 - 2000 population)
10.6% increase
region: Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, suburban and rural county
state region: piedmont/north central
Iredell
159,437 (122,660 - 2000 population)
30% increase
region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, suburban county
state region: piedmont/west central
Catawba
154,358 (141,685 - 2000 population)
8.9% increase
region: Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir MSA, core county
state region: piedmont/west central
Alamance
151,131 (130,800 - 2000 population)
15.5% increase
Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, suburban and rural county
state region: piedmont/north central
Randolph
141,752 (130,454 - 2000 population)
8.7% increase
Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, mostly rural county
state region: piedmont/north central
Rowan
138,428 (130,340 - 2000 population)
6.2% increase
region: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill CSA, suburban/semi-rural county
state region: piedmont/central
I didn't compare city growth rates vs county growth rates in the counties that didn't have a city in the NC top 20. Of these largest counties, they are overwhelmingly between I-95 and the Blue Ridge - Asheville (Buncombe County), Wilmington (New Hanover County), Jacksonville (Onslow County), and Greenville (Pitt County) are the only counties out of 20 that fall outside of that central segment of NC, so the growth is fairly lopsided and uneven within the state. With some of these cities/counties - Fayetteville/Cumberland in particular - the comparison does reveal just how drastic the growth via annexation was: you will not see a 65% growth rate in Fayetteville with the next census.
To prognosticate, which is a stupid thing to do, but I'll do it anyway. I base this on a few qualifiers: present rates of growth sustaining (they may or may not), annexation laws changing in NC (they may) are the two biggest ifs:
Charlotte - I'd expect to see around 900,000, perhaps slightly over. Charlotte will be (or will be close to) out of annexable land by that point, though there is ample space for infill.
Raleigh - I'd expect easily to see it over 500,000, probably well over.
Greensboro - Slightly over or under 300,000.
Durham and Winston-Salem - Somewhere roundabout 275K.
Fayetteville - I don't expect any more big jumps; the balance of Cumberland County is very rural and likely to remain that way. There is abundant infill space. Should some of our overseas wars end, or the BRAC bring in a large influx of higher-end military jobs (both possibilities), Fayetteville's numbers might be more energetic.
Wilmington - Barring changes to current annexation laws, I'd expect at least 150,000, and the city has already completed studies that could bring in unincorporated, heavily urbanized suburbs with populations of around 30,000.
High Point - I don't foresee a huge increase - HP is blocked from further annexations into Davidson County, and is nearly boxed in by Kernersville, Greensboro, Jamestown, Archdale, Trinity and Thomasville in other directions.
Greenville, Asheville and Concord are all within striking distance of 100,000 by 2020. Greenville will almost certainly hit the mark, Concord probably just short of it. Asheville is slower to annex, but there is strong in-migration, and the city has completed studies of unincorporated suburbs that it could annex (though it hasn't moved to do so), which have a total population of around 8 or 9,000.
Union County seems destined to become NC's Cobb or Gwinett County. A similar situation in Iredell, Cabarrus and Johnston Counties, though at a slightly less haphazard fashion.
Alamance is the link county between The Triangle and The Triad, and I'd expect a slow but definitely steady increase there, as Burlington is near the precise half-way point between Durham and Greensboro, and attracts commuters from both.
With some of these cities/counties - Fayetteville/Cumberland in particular - the comparison does reveal just how drastic the growth via annexation was: you will not see a 65% growth rate in Fayetteville with the next census.
Agreed. The story with Fayetteville/Cumberland is that the city annexed most of Fort Bragg and its existing population this past decade. To me, there's a difference between what happened there and annexation of new growth that's actually occurring somewhat simultaneously. Fayetteville looks like a statistical star for this Census but it's mostly smoke and mirrors.
I'm not sure what's puzzling about my statement to you--indeed, you acknowledge my point exactly (in bold, above). To be sure, Raleigh-Durham did not come in under its 2009 estimates, but it also showed very little gain over its 2009 estimates.
Over the last few years, estimates for annual growth of the Raleigh MSA have ranged from 30-35k or higher and around 45k for the CSA, so a change of 5k and 9k, respectively, over the 2009 estimates either reflects previous over-estimation or a current undercount. There is nothing more to be gleamed from my statement; it is not a jab at Raleigh (i.e., no need for the defensive tone). I believe DANNYY made reference to this earlier in the thread, but to give some specific examples, "peer" cities like San Antonio and Oklahoma City showed larger-than-expected changes between their 2009 estimates and the 2010 Census figure. Oklahoma City was estimated to have been growing around 17k/year since 2006, yet jumped nearly 26k from 2009 to 2010. This "discrepancy" was even more pronounced for San Antonio. The opposite was true for Raleigh, as well as other cities like Austin and Salt Lake City.
I apologize if you perceived a defensive tone. None was intended.
It's interesting to look at the Austin/SLC/Raleigh horse race because these three CSA's have been neck and neck as recently reported by Census estimates. The same continues to be true after the Census was released. So, to that end, the Census has done a good job over the interim years IMO. Given the explosive growth of both Austin and Raleigh, I think it's rather remarkable that the Census was able to keep it pretty close with estimates. What's interesting to me is that the one that grew the slowet is the one that they were probably overestimating the most. One would think that the slower growing metros would be easier to track and estimate.
The following is a list of the three areas by Primary Census Statistical Area rankings (which, in this case is their CSA) and estimated populations as of 2009. Following each is their 2010 populations.
34) Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield CSA, 2009 - 1,743,364 (Census 1,744,886)
35) Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA, 2009 - 1,742,816 (Census 1,749,525) Raleigh and SLC now switch places on the next list
I think that it will be interesting to see where Milwaukee lands this year. At a projected 1.76 million for 2009, it will be the next metro that Austin and Raleigh "jumps" soon if not already.
I also suspect that MSAs and CSAs are going to be redrawn in the next few years for areas like Austin and Raleigh as their rapid growth changes the dynamics of their adjacent counties. For example, Granville County NC is adjacent to both Wake (Raleigh) and Durham Counties but isn't included in either MSA or the combined CSA. I'd be surprised if that county isn't included in future Census mapping of the Triangle. I am also looking for the Census to re-combine Raleigh and Durham back into one MSA like it should be. Who knows if that will happen or not?
^even though Raleigh and Durham should be combined, I doubt they will. I expect Charlotte's MSA to include Iredell county and perhaps Lancaster county in SC.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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Finally with the release of Kansas (State) this can be completed.
Kansas City MSA:
- Cass County, MO: 99,478
- Clay County, MO: 221,939
- Jackson County, MO: 674,158
- Platte County, MO: 89,322
- Ray County, MO: 23,494
- Bates County, MO: 17,049
- Caldwell County, MO: 9,424
- Clinton County, MO: 20,743
- Lafayette County, MO: 33,381
- Johnson County, KS: 544,179
- Wyandotte County, KS: 157,505
- Franklin County, KS: 25,992
- Leavenworth County, KS: 76,227
- Linn County, KS: 9,656
- Miami County, KS: 32,787 Total:2,035,334
Kansas City CSA:
- Cass County, MO: 99,478
- Clay County, MO: 221,939
- Jackson County, MO: 674,158
- Platte County, MO: 89,322
- Ray County, MO: 23,494
- Bates County, MO: 17,049
- Caldwell County, MO: 9,424
- Clinton County, MO: 20,743
- Lafayette County, MO: 33,381
- Johnson County, KS: 544,179
- Wyandotte County, KS: 157,505
- Franklin County, KS: 25,992
- Leavenworth County, KS: 76,227
- Linn County, KS: 9,656
- Miami County, KS: 32,787
- Johnson County, MO: 52,959
- Atchison County, KS: 16,924 Total:2,105,217
Quote:
Originally Posted by adavi215
The data for the Charlotte CSA is a little off. Catawba and Alexander are not apart of the "official" Charlotte CSA. Other than that the figures look correct. I think Charlotte's CSA is only 12 counties but all of the counties, to my memory, seem correct.
So far Charlotte's the only CSA I've seen like this so far where there are some counties that are "sometimes" counted and sometimes not. That's so odd that the US Census Bureau doesn't even have a placed definition for it officially.
Excerpt:
Quote:
The Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury Combined Statistical Area (CSA)[3] is a regional population area including parts of North Carolina and South Carolina with a 2008 population of 2,574,787.[4] The aforementioned MSA is the only metropolitan area (as defined since 2003) included in the CSA, but there are six included micropolitan areas: Albemarle, Lincolnton, Shelby and Statesville-Mooresville in North Carolina and Lancaster and Chester in South Carolina. Additionally, Catawba and Alexander counties in North Carolina are sometimes counted in larger estimates of the region's true size due to their close proximity to the Charlotte Metro.
I've also checked 4 other websites, they all say the same exact thing as this one. Really hard to define Charlotte, but I guess you can take those two additional counties out.
California and Pennsylvania cities numbers are coming out next week. The biggest week yet.
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