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Old 02-05-2012, 12:07 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maintainschaos View Post
Doesn't that seem like an awfully generous estimate for Philadelphia?

well it is arguably already at nearly 9, at least from a proximity standpoint and that without any NYC MSA areas. Though I do agree 14 million seems high to me as well in another 40 years.

Was from an independant Northeast regional planning group. The growth areas are some push down/up in suburban NJ in the Philly MSA and areas like Reading, Allentown and toward Lancaster. I think this assumes Allentown and Atltantic City become part of the Philly CSA, of which both are close on commuter rates today (where the over 8 million today comes from)
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Old 02-05-2012, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Arroyo Grande, California
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Lets pray this growth evens out. Who would want to live in a NYC with 35 million. Yikes....
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Old 02-05-2012, 12:29 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
In the core yes, percentage wise yes on MSA

LOL at what? If it aint Boston you just seem to dismiss everything

Also in terms of Boston projections for 2050, why so little growth?

Regional Population Projections...

New York City - Northern / Central NJ , Southeastern CT , LoHud Valley
2000 : 20.6 Million > 2010 : 22.08 Million > 2050 : 35 Million

Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia
2000 : 7.5 Million > 2010 : 8.9 Million > 2050 : 15 Million

Boston - Worcester - Manchester - Providence
2000 : 7.2 Million > 2010 : 7.5 Million > 2050 : 9 Million

Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington-Reading
2000 : 6.2 Million > 2010 : 6.7 Million > 2050 : 14 Million
That is soooooo overblown.
And it is funny coming from someone who is always slamming on people who post these lists for fun.

Tell me Paul, where is Philly getting the space to double its population? Where is all the infrastructure going to go? The UA density would have to quadruple. How is the area going to handle that??
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:26 PM
 
Location: ITL (Houston)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
That is soooooo overblown.
And it is funny coming from someone who is always slamming on people who post these lists for fun.

Tell me Paul, where is Philly getting the space to double its population? Where is all the infrastructure going to go? The UA density would have to quadruple. How is the area going to handle that??
Nice.
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
well it is arguably already at nearly 9, at least from a proximity standpoint and that without any NYC MSA areas. Though I do agree 14 million seems high to me as well in another 40 years.

Was from an independant Northeast regional planning group. The growth areas are some push down/up in suburban NJ in the Philly MSA and areas like Reading, Allentown and toward Lancaster. I think this assumes Allentown and Atltantic City become part of the Philly CSA, of which both are close on commuter rates today (where the over 8 million today comes from)
Phillys 2010 Population was 6.5, its not close to 9 Million.
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:41 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
That is soooooo overblown.
And it is funny coming from someone who is always slamming on people who post these lists for fun.

Tell me Paul, where is Philly getting the space to double its population? Where is all the infrastructure going to go? The UA density would have to quadruple. How is the area going to handle that??

No read back it would be closer to a 5 million add from todays population (I dont see personally, though 3-4 in this space is more realistic) but where they project the growth there is room to grow, it would be a CSA still smaller in area than the Houston MSA as a comparator; and on infrastructure, there is already far better infrastructre today for this area to handle 14 million than Houston to handle 10 million. But the population today is a hair under 9 million in the area they are describing in this (It assumes based on projections and growth rates the areas I have described a million times will be part of the metro in 40 years). And oddly it is an infrastructure study, on where to expand rail oddly enough as to what the reason is for the study in the first place. Part of this growth is based on the continuity of development in between NYC and Philly; growing more economically dependent actually. The UA would only increas by about 30% actually based on a quick look, remember most of these people are already here

My original question was more why Boston among all the NE cities was shown to epect much less growth relative to NYC, DC, and Philly and less the absolute number, but again this is a 5 million add in total in actual population, as you know there are already far more people in the area than the Census shows, the Philly DMA is over 8 million today, but you know this

Last edited by kidphilly; 02-05-2012 at 01:55 PM..
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
No read back it would be closer to a 5 million add from todays population (I dont see personally, though 3-4 in this space is more realistic) but where they project the growth there is room to grow, it would be a CSA still smaller in area than the Houston MSA as a comparator; and on infrastructure, there is already far better infrastructre today for this area to handle 14 million than Houston to handle 10 million. But the population today is a hair under 9 million in the area they are describing in this (It assumes based on projections and growth rates the areas I have described a million times will be part of the metro in 40 years). And oddly it is an infrastructure study, on where to expand rail oddly enough as to what the reason is for the study in the first place. Part of this growth is based on the continuity of development in between NYC and Philly; growing more economically dependent actually. The UA would only increas by about 30% actually based on a quick look, remember most of these people are already here
So in otherwords, Philly is going to grow moreso by picking up Couties rather than build up its current area.
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:49 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Phillys 2010 Population was 6.5, its not close to 9 Million.

It assumes to continuation of areas NOW populated (which include nearly 9 Million) as part of the metro in the future which most are very close today based on commuter rates


And if both Dover and Allentown/Beth (which BTW is closer than PVD in distance) roll into the CSA with the final 2010 census data (they are very close) the CSA would be close to 8 Million without other areas (this study projects in 2050 as part of the metro). This is ac****ing for much of the close by population that already exisits and another 5 million adds (to me personally seems high 3-4 is more realistic in this overall space)

Also many recent studies have Philly back over 2 million by 2050, especially considering the nabes vacant today along the waterfront (most basically in the CC core or one nabe removed) would have as many as 80-100K additional residents alone.
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:52 PM
 
Location: The City
19,374 posts, read 16,784,688 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
So in otherwords, Philly is going to grow moreso by picking up Couties rather than build up its current area.
It is expanding (around the city too at a faster clip than Boston in the relative sense, not just adding, it also projects growth in core counties as well) to capture them, in many ways they alays have been somewhat connected, moreso some than others. No less than PVD to Boston as an example, just more people sorround Philly
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Old 02-05-2012, 02:11 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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In 2013 when MSA and CSA revisions are announced, I think there will be some jumps in "metro" population in many areas just because they added more counties. Conversely, if there are more MSA spits like we saw in 2003, there will be more metros that fall from their previous visibility/ranking.
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