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NC will definitely pass GA. GA is Atlanta and then small growth (if that) small metros. NC has the Triangle, which is the fasted growing metro in the country and Charlotte is also up there. The Triad has more people than GA's smaller metros combined and also grows decently. And Asheville and Wilmington, while small, grow faster.
Location: Augusta, GA ''The fastest rising city in the southeast''
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP
NC will definitely pass GA. GA is Atlanta and then small growth (if that) small metros. NC has the Triangle, which is the fasted growing metro in the country and Charlotte is also up there. The Triad has more people than GA's smaller metros combined and also grows decently. And Asheville and Wilmington, while small, grow faster.
False.. Obviously another person who's never been to the mutiple other cities in Georgia outside of Atlanta.. The Business Journals estimates Augusta's MSA to be 570k by itself.. The Triad creates a CSA of around 1.2 million, and it can't be a valid comparison unless you're using the CSA's in Georiga..
I doubt any metro outside of Charlotte or Raleigh grows faster than Augusta or Savannah this decade.. I think Savannah and Augusta can both grow faster than Wilmington, Asheville, or Durham..
I never said anything about where Macks were assembled but losing the headquarters can not be looked at as a positive now can it?
When Mellon Financial merged with the Bank of New York, the newly-merged Bank of New York Mellon put the headquarters in New York and the primary operations in Pittsburgh. The only employees of the bank who live in New York are a the executives and their assistants. Meanwhile, the operations in Pittsburgh have expanded, and jobs have been added in spite of the loss of the headquarters. That arrangement has been beneficial for both cities. Headquarters can come and go, but the operations are important too. In the case of Mack, the headquarters were folded into Greensboro, but the operations remain in Allentown.
False.. Obviously another person who's never been to the mutiple other cities in Georgia outside of Atlanta.. The Business Journals estimates Augusta's MSA to be 570k by itself.. The Triad creates a CSA of around 1.2 million, and it can't be a valid comparison unless you're using the CSA's in Georiga..
I doubt any metro outside of Charlotte or Raleigh grows faster than Augusta or Savannah this decade.. I think Savannah and Augusta can both grow faster than Wilmington, Asheville, or Durham..
The Triad is actually about 1.6 million, not 1.2. Since 2000, the Triad grew at a faster rate than Augusta and ALL of that growth was in NC. How much of Augusta's metro population/growth is actually in SC? The Durham side of the Research Triangle also grew at a faster rate than Augusta and about at the same rate as Savannah....but Durham has a higher base population and added more people than Savannah. Wilmington grew at a much faster rate than both Augusta and Savannah since 2000. I think it's a pretty bold prediction that none of these areas will out-grow Augusta and Savannah. See the links below for my sources.
Location: Augusta, GA ''The fastest rising city in the southeast''
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl
The Triad is actually about 1.6 million, not 1.2. Since 2000, the Triad grew at a faster rate than Augusta and ALL of that growth was in NC. How much of Augusta's metro population/growth is actually in SC? The Durham side of the Research Triangle also grew at a faster rate than Augusta and about at the same rate as Savannah....but Durham has a higher base population and added more people than Savannah. Wilmington grew at a much faster rate than both Augusta and Savannah since 2000. I think it's a pretty bold prediction that none of these areas will out-grow Augusta and Savannah. See the links below for my sources.
The Triad grew faster by not even 1% compared to Augusta.. Why are you comparing a CSA vs a MSA?? What does the previous decade have to do with this decade??
False.. Obviously another person who's never been to the mutiple other cities in Georgia outside of Atlanta.. The Business Journals estimates Augusta's MSA to be 570k by itself.. The Triad creates a CSA of around 1.2 million, and it can't be a valid comparison unless you're using the CSA's in Georiga..
I doubt any metro outside of Charlotte or Raleigh grows faster than Augusta or Savannah this decade.. I think Savannah and Augusta can both grow faster than Wilmington, Asheville, or Durham..
While you bring some valid points your logic is slightly off. Allow myself as a NC native help you out.
As someone mentioned earlier the Triad CSA is 1.6million. However, if you combined all of NC metro areas into one you can cancel out Atlanta CSA and assume, and I emphasize assume, they're even. That would cancel the three major CSA in NC and the Atlanta CSA thus making GA and NC on an even playing field.
So GA has Columbus, Athens, Augusta, Macon, valdosta, Dalton, Albany, and Savannah. NC has Wilmington, Asheville, Fayetteville, Hickory, Jacksonville, Greenville, goldsboro, and Rocky Mount. What the big surprise is, is Jacksonville has been growing like crazy! I guess its due to the military. As close as NC and GA are to each other to really compare the two I think its better to compare them outside of their major metropolitan and urban areas, since the state who outpaces the other is going to based on what rural areas become more urban since the current urban centers in both are about even.
And another note, even though GA is more populated NC has a higher gdp.
While you bring some valid points your logic is slightly off. Allow myself as a NC native help you out.
As someone mentioned earlier the Triad CSA is 1.6million. However, if you combined all of NC metro areas into one you can cancel out Atlanta CSA and assume, and I emphasize assume, they're even. That would cancel the three major CSA in NC and the Atlanta CSA thus making GA and NC on an even playing field.
So GA has Columbus, Athens, Augusta, Macon, valdosta, Dalton, Albany, and Savannah. NC has Wilmington, Asheville, Fayetteville, Hickory, Jacksonville, Greenville, goldsboro, and Rocky Mount. What the big surprise is, is Jacksonville has been growing like crazy! I guess its due to the military. As close as NC and GA are to each other to really compare the two I think its better to compare them outside of their major metropolitan and urban areas, since the state who outpaces the other is going to based on what rural areas become more urban since the current urban centers in both are about even.
And another note, even though GA is more populated NC has a higher gdp.
The dynamic between North Carolina and Georgia has similarities to the dynamic between Pennsylvania and Illinois. Georgia and Illinois both have one very large MSA that occupies the lion's share of each state's attention, and each MSA grew rapidly enough during the 1990's to help Georgia pass North Carolina and Illinois pass Pennsylvania in population.
North Carolina and Pennsylvania each have two MSAs that combine to be almost as large as the very large one in Georgia and Illinois, respectively, but they also have many more "mid-major" MSAs (populations between 500,000 and 999,999), plus more nationally-known colleges and universities.
Also, as growth in Georgia and Illinois has decelerated in the last five to 10 years, it's accelerated in North Carolina and Pennsylvania in that same period of time.
(Yeah, there are some differences, but there are a lot of similarities nonetheless.)
The dynamic between North Carolina and Georgia has similarities to the dynamic between Pennsylvania and Illinois. Georgia and Illinois both have one very large MSA that occupies the lion's share of each state's attention, and each MSA grew rapidly enough during the 1990's to help Georgia pass North Carolina and Illinois pass Pennsylvania in population.
North Carolina and Pennsylvania each have two MSAs that combine to be almost as large as the very large one in Georgia and Illinois, respectively, but they also have many more "mid-major" MSAs (populations between 500,000 and 999,999), plus more nationally-known colleges and universities.
Also, as growth in Georgia and Illinois has decelerated in the last five to 10 years, it's accelerated in North Carolina and Pennsylvania in that same period of time.
(Yeah, there are some differences, but there are a lot of similarities nonetheless.)
Some places where I fail to see the comparison:
1) I don't think (and I think one could make a very strong argument) that NC has more nationally-known colleges and universities than IL. Furthermore, I fail to see how that impacts the increase or decrease of the overall population of the state.
2) I agree that IL and GA's growth have slowed (although NC's growth has slowed somewhat, too), but I fail to see how PA's growth has accelerated in any significant manner. I mean, sure from 1980 to 1990, PA increase from 0.1% in population (11.86 to 11.88 million), and increased 3.4% from 1990 to 2000 (11.88 to 12.28 million); however, from 2000 to 2010 there was the same percentage increase (3.4%, 12.28 to 12.70 million), thus indicating the same rate of growth as the previous decade, not an increasing rate. In fact, IL increased at 3.3% from 2000 to 2010 as well, virtually the same as PA. I just fail to see this mirrored increase in growth for PA compared to NC.
The Triad grew faster by not even 1% compared to Augusta.. Why are you comparing a CSA vs a MSA?? What does the previous decade have to do with this decade??
I was comparing the Primary Census Statistical Areas. This designation compares the highest level at which each metro is classified. Some MSA's aren't part of a CSA while other are. For instance, Miami only has a MSA though it's over 5 million. On the other hand, areas like the Triad and Triangle are split into two. Using the PCSA, one can better compare apples to apples. I also used the MSA chart since you cited Durham separately.
What the previous decade will tell you is trending. While it's possible that some areas will reverse course abruptly due to extenuating circumstances, it's not the norm. New Orleans in the aftermath of Katrina is an example of such circumstances.
Looking at the report on which this report was based, we know the following about the MSAs in question since Census 2010: (MSAs listed in order of 2012 population from largest to smallest)
Greensboro grew by 15,383 or 2.12% to 739,184
Augusta grew by 13,633 or 2.44% to 570,510
Durham grew by 15,301 or 3.03% to 519,658
Winston Salem grew by 8,605 or 1.80% to 486,322
Wilmington grew by 16,081 or 4.44% to 378,396
Savannah grew by 10,914 or 3.13% to 358,525
So....in order of absolute numbers, the growth so far is this order:
Wilmington
Greensboro
Durham
Augusta
Savannah
Winston-Salem
In order of growth rate, the rankings so far this decade:
Wilmington
Savannah
Durham
Augusta
Greensboro
Winston-Salem
What we can conclude is that it's Wilmington, NC that is the fastest growing of the bunch in both absolute numbers and percentages. This is exactly where Wilmington ranked among this group of MSAs in the last decade as well. And, to your assumption about what could happen, this does not set the stage for both Savannah and Augusta to grow at a faster rate than all the NC metros other than Charlotte and Raleigh.
BTW, you never answered my question about how much of the Augusta MSA is in SC. It's relevant because the SC growth doesn't add anything to the growth of Georgia. The same is true for the SC growth in the Charlotte Metro....it doesn't contribute to the growth numbers in NC.
1) I don't think (and I think one could make a very strong argument) that NC has more nationally-known colleges and universities than IL. Furthermore, I fail to see how that impacts the increase or decrease of the overall population of the state.
I was talking about North Carolina compared to Georgia and Pennsylvania compared to Illinois in that regard, not necessarily North Carolina compared to Illinois. With that said, I think you're selling North Carolina short compared to Illinois as well. In terms of national recognition, Illinois has the University of Illinois, Northwestern and DePaul. (Yes, I know about the University of Chicago, but it's still relatively unknown among the top colleges.) As for North Carolina, it has the University of North Carolina, NC State, Duke and Wake Forest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maintainschaos
2) I agree that IL and GA's growth have slowed (although NC's growth has slowed somewhat, too), but I fail to see how PA's growth has accelerated in any significant manner. I mean, sure from 1980 to 1990, PA increase from 0.1% in population (11.86 to 11.88 million), and increased 3.4% from 1990 to 2000 (11.88 to 12.28 million); however, from 2000 to 2010 there was the same percentage increase (3.4%, 12.28 to 12.70 million), thus indicating the same rate of growth as the previous decade, not an increasing rate. In fact, IL increased at 3.3% from 2000 to 2010 as well, virtually the same as PA. I just fail to see this mirrored increase in growth for PA compared to NC.
You notice how so many people complained when the 2010 Census figures were made official? It's because they were expecting the populations of their cities/states to be higher based on the annual U.S. Census estimates in the years prior to 2010. In other words, the U.S. Census overestimated the populations of a great many cities and states. Pennsylvania was not one of them; in fact, Pennsylvania was grossly underestimated. According to the annual estimates, Illinois was pulling away from Pennsylvania until the official numbers came out and showed that Illinois grew slower than estimated and Pennsylvania grew faster than estimated.
Furthermore, Pennsylvania kept pace with Illinois in spite of a huge demographic ball and chain around its ankle. The natural increase (births minus deaths) in Pennsylvania was very small last decade, while it was robust in Illinois. During this decade, the birth rate will increase, and the death rate will decrease. This should help Pennsylvania's population growth accelerate even more as the decade progresses. The state added 399,411 people during the 1990's, and 421,325 people during the 2000's. Don't be surprised if Pennsylvania's increase approaches 500,000 during this decade as its demographics normalize.
Three other advantages that Pennsylvania has: 1) its net domestic migration has been close to zero in the last several years while it's still strongly negative in Illinois. 2) Philadelphia is reemerging as an immigrant gateway while Chicago is saturated in that regard. 3) The economy in Pennsylvania has been more fundamentally sound than the economy in Illinois for the better part of a decade now. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if Pennsylvania's population growth accelerates even more this decade.
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