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50 years ago, Philly was more than triple the size of Houston. Because of insane growth, Houston has recently passed up Philly MSA and will continue to pull apart. Houston MSA will be larger than Philly CSA by 2015. Let's keep it real, Philly was a great city (top 3) before it's decline in the 50's. Houston and Dallas has passed it up and Atlanta, Miami and Pheonix will pass it up in 10-20 years.
Not true. Phoenix is actually shrinking currently (losing population), so I hear. Philadelphia is growing, although slowly, it's metro is poised to add 400,000 to the metro and 100,000 to the city by 2020. That's what is predicted at least. The UA/CSA of New York and Philadelphia have been/ or are going to be combined by 2020, and most likely the MSA's by 2030. Philadelphia will continue to grow as a cheaper alternative to New York city especially when the Northeast High speed line is finished that will take a total of 38 minutes to travel between Center City Philadelphia and Midtown Manhattan. I highly doubt any other city will pass Philadelphia in population and Philadelphia will pass all metros in Population when it joins with New York to form a megalopolis. New Yorkers are already moving to Philadelphia that are being priced out of Manhattan and as long as the Media giant Comcast continues to expand and buy up every media outlet in the world, media jobs will come to Philadelphia too. Comcast bought NBC and made huge deals with Disney (ABC). Hollywood is next to be owned by Comcast haha. I see the biggest metros some time in the future to be New York-Philly Metro, LA-San Diego Metro, Houston Metro, Dallas-FW Metro, San Fran Metro, Chicago Metro, Boston Metro and MAYBE Atlanta Metro and Miami Metro. Phoenix grew to fast for it's own good and will die a quick and painless death.
Cities lose and gain population. Go through cycles of being great then dying and being terrible. It happens to all cities, it is just the cities way of life. Philadelphia had it's time in the dumps, it's growing with too many bright ideas, bright people behind it and it is creating more firsts like modular housing and others. Things that your cities are starting to do as well.
In 50 years Houston MSA will be more than twice the size of Philly MSA. It's growing at 26% vs 4.9% over the last decade.
I pretty sure in 50 years the Philly MSA and the NEW York MSA will be even more integrated than it is today. Especially if the Northeast Corridor rail lines between Philly and New York gets some serious high speed rail trains that rivals Europe or Japan. I could definitely see the Philly area and New York area possibly combining into one MSA if that happened.
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The boom has just begin and I don't see the world demand for energy getting any less. Houston's big advantage is that there's alot of infilling so these brand new structures, freeways, light rail should last over a century.
I expect Houston MSA to continue to grow but I think it will be more like steady growth and in the next 50 years I doubt it will still have huge growth rates it currently has which is over 25% because like all metro areas, the growth rates eventually slow down as there population reaches a certain mile stone. The LA MSA and the Chicago MSA are perfect examples of that.
The UA/CSA of New York and Philadelphia have been/ or are going to be combined by 2020, and most likely the MSA's by 2030.
Philly and NY will definitely join as one UA in the future but never as a CSA and certainly not an MSA. commuter rates are based on central counties and NYC and Philadelphia county have just too many people to allow the two metros to combine.
They may poach outlying counties from one another but the will never combine under the current census rules. ask yourself what is 25 percent of the city of NY or 25 percent of Philadelphia and imagine supplying all of those people with jobs in the CORE of the other and you will see why those two are not one metro.
same with DC and Baltimore, same with Chicago and Milwaukee, same with SF and SJ. the number of commuters required for 25% are just too high for these to become metros.
I'll give you that Philadelphia is squarely in the 6-10 group, as is Boston. I'll even give you that Philadelphia is nice, though its suburbs are hardly housing bargains, though one from the outside might think so. I'll even give you that Pittsburgh is a beautiful city, ranking high on QOL studies, but its metro population over the decades has been stagnant. And this is despite the city's success in attracting new businesses and research ventures to the area. The middle of PA could almost be considered part of the rust belt. Scenic, yes, but not much is happening there.
The Sunbelt is hardly a fad. The population "center of gravity" as seen in the almanac, or anywhere else, moves west and south with every decade. One in four new immigrants indicates California as their destination. I'm sure that, as people settle in Houston, that's where their incoming relatives from Mexico, China and Vietnam will also settle...at least initially. There's no turning back on that dynamic.
I'm still NY-LA-Chi-DC (4)-SF (5) -and now HOU (6). BOS-PHL-SEA-ATL are right behind these six, though I don't know in what order. That makes 10.
Well if we're talking metro areas then not the Bay Area nor DC's metro nor Houston's is even remotely on the Delaware Valley's level. If San Francisco or Houston or DC declined then their entire metros would become nothing. Philadelphia's metro on the other hand only declined because everywhere that declined had the same problems.. industries that dried up and white flight. Philadelphia could have become Detroit forever and it wouldn't mean that the rest of the metro would've declined. Multiple things had to happen exactly the way they did for what happened to occur. Also, I don't think you know too much about PA. There's major cities all throughout it.
No, it's definitely a fad. If it weren't for immigrants, you would without a doubt start bleeding population within the next decade or two.
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Originally Posted by phamb
Cities will be built with what the population demands. From the 50's to 90's the trend was to move outward at which time Houston more than tripple it's size and sprawled outward. Same thing happen with rust belt cities. People left the inner city for places like Jersey or Delaware right outside of Philly. Revitalization started in the Mid 90's and Houston is developing fast inside the inner loop. The great benefit is that Houston is booming now during this new trend.
Philadelphia is not a Rust Belt city, first of all.
Philadelphia has major cities (on a smaller scale) within its metro, and has independent municipalities with rich history and culture throughout. Houston does not and will never have this in its metro.
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Originally Posted by JoninATX
another Texas basher.
Nope, sorry but I'm a realist and an objective person.
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Originally Posted by HtownLove
Couldn'tthinkofaclevername, tell me this, how does an MSA annex land? :
where do you come up with those posts of yours? They are all whacky and uninformed
A young population/ High Birth rate is the reason for half Houston's population increase. I doubt it will slow much in less than 30 years.
the migration rates are anybody's guess.
You tell me considering that Houston continues to do it.
I'm sorry but your opinions do not equal facts and if you continue to attempt to insult me I will just continue to laugh at you.
No, it isn't. Immigration and the fad of the Sunbelt is.
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Originally Posted by phamb
50 years ago, Philly was more than triple the size of Houston. Because of insane growth, Houston has recently passed up Philly MSA and will continue to pull apart. Houston MSA will be larger than Philly CSA by 2015. Let's keep it real, Philly was a great city (top 3) before it's decline in the 50's. Houston and Dallas has passed it up and Atlanta, Miami and Pheonix will pass it up in 10-20 years.
Houston, Miami, Phoenix, and Atlanta will never in a million years be what Philadelphia was at its former peak, let alone the entire metro.
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Originally Posted by Summersm343
Not true. Phoenix is actually shrinking currently (losing population), so I hear. Philadelphia is growing, although slowly, it's metro is poised to add 400,000 to the metro and 100,000 to the city by 2020. That's what is predicted at least. The UA/CSA of New York and Philadelphia have been/ or are going to be combined by 2020, and most likely the MSA's by 2030. Philadelphia will continue to grow as a cheaper alternative to New York city especially when the Northeast High speed line is finished that will take a total of 38 minutes to travel between Center City Philadelphia and Midtown Manhattan. I highly doubt any other city will pass Philadelphia in population and Philadelphia will pass all metros in Population when it joins with New York to form a megalopolis. New Yorkers are already moving to Philadelphia that are being priced out of Manhattan and as long as the Media giant Comcast continues to expand and buy up every media outlet in the world, media jobs will come to Philadelphia too. Comcast bought NBC and made huge deals with Disney (ABC). Hollywood is next to be owned by Comcast haha
Here's the most important part that you're not mentioning.
Houston and other Sunbelt cities and yes even you LA are mostly sprawling messes that are centered on one city and not at all independent separate places.
The Delaware Valley is exactly that, and places that were centered around manufacturing and other industry have been diversifying themselves for years, including Camden and Wilmington. The metro continues to add jobs and population and its colleges continue to get more and more prominent. The reasons that the metro shrank are slowly but surely being reversed.
No, it's definitely a fad. If it weren't for immigrants, you would without a doubt start bleeding population within the next decade or two.
What' s your point? The same could have been said about the Northeast when the Irish, Italian and Greek immigrants were coming over in waves. They hit New York because it was the port of entry for ocean liners, and to a lesser extent, Boston. Even Halifax, Nova Scotia was the Atlantic port of entry for Canada.
Now, we have two-level jumbo jets. And immigrants can go wherever they want....Phoenix, Dallas, Denver, Chicago...they follow their kinfolk. If they do research and want to move later, they do....usually to another Sunbelt location.
Philly and NY will definitely join as one UA in the future but never as a CSA and certainly not an MSA. commuter rates are based on central counties and NYC and Philadelphia county have just too many people to allow the two metros to combine. They may poach outlying counties from one another but the will never combine under the current census rules. ask yourself what is 25 percent of the city of NY or 25 percent of Philadelphia and imagine supplying all of those people with jobs in the CORE of the other and you will see why those two are not one metro.
same with DC and Baltimore, same with Chicago and Milwaukee, same with SF and SJ. the number of commuters required for 25% are just too high for these to become metros.
If the Philly and New York area ever did combine it would be because of huge improvements in High Speed Rail, which I could definitely see happening by 2050.
You tell me considering that Houston continues to do it.
stop being silly. No metro has the power to annex. You know too little on these things to comment. No metro in the country has ever annexed anything. That is just plain out silly talk.
He never said Philly and Boston were ahead of Houston and Houston can fight for 8. In Fact in another post he listed Houston ahead of Philly and Boston.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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This thread has gone on entirely too long. The bottom line is this and honestly should not be up for discussion. The top 5/ most important cities in the US are (in no order) NY, LA, Chi, DC, and SF. You can argue many different orders but make no mistake those are the top tier bar none.
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haha. I see the biggest metros some time in the future to be New York-Philly Metro, LA-San Diego Metro, Houston Metro, Dallas-FW Metro, San Fran Metro, Chicago Metro, Boston Metro and MAYBE Atlanta Metro and Miami Metro. Phoenix grew to fast for it's own good and will die a quick and painless death.
another Texas basher.
