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View Poll Results: Will Houston surpass Chicago as the 3rd largest city by 2020?
Yes 492 41.59%
No 691 58.41%
Voters: 1183. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-23-2010, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,171 posts, read 12,805,335 times
Reputation: 4047

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SCENARIO 2000-2040: Houston Metropolitan Area population estimates

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,295,975
2010 5,979,911 (Where we are now)
2015 6,754,896
2020 7,599,748
2025 8,515,677
2030 9,504,335
2035 10,570,390
2040 11,717,086

As you can see, by 2035 Houston will reach where Chicago almost is right now, meaning not even in the next 30 years will it's metropolitan population overtake Chicago's. But city wise, it's a done deal.
Even at that point, Greater Houston will be playing catch up to DFW.

Last edited by DANNYY; 05-23-2010 at 06:59 PM..
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Old 05-23-2010, 08:11 PM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,171,331 times
Reputation: 7739
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmShahi View Post
SCENARIO 2000-2040: Houston Metropolitan Area population estimates

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,295,975
2010 5,979,911 (Where we are now)
2015 6,754,896
2020 7,599,748
2025 8,515,677
2030 9,504,335
2035 10,570,390
2040 11,717,086

As you can see, by 2035 Houston will reach where Chicago almost is right now, meaning not even in the next 30 years will it's metropolitan population overtake Chicago's. But city wise, it's a done deal.
Even at that point, Greater Houston will be playing catch up to DFW.

So the assumption is expansion at the current rate - growth outward and doubling the jobs - seriously - the fringe cannot sustain that growth and infill isnt dense enough to sustain that growth

Where are the 3 million plus additional jobs coming from?

not trying to nitpick but this would mean expansive growth (outside of core) that has never taken place in any metro in the world

Plus that assumes straight line growh - look at the 80s in Houston
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Old 05-23-2010, 08:14 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,171 posts, read 12,805,335 times
Reputation: 4047
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
So the assumption is expansion at the current rate - growth outward and doubling the jobs - seriously - the fringe cannot sustain that growth and infill isnt dense enough to sustain that growth

Where are the 3 million plus additional jobs coming from?

not trying to nitpick but this would mean expansive growth (outside of core) that has never taken place in any metro in the world
Hardly any idea, just went with official projections if the rate were constant as seen in from 2000-2007. Then again the matter at hand is 30 years from now, much can change, but it's a good idea to see general projections and watch the progress (If any).

2008 Methodology for Texas Population Projections (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/cgi-bin/prj2008totnum.cgi - broken link)
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Old 05-23-2010, 10:39 PM
 
Location: At the center of the universe!
1,179 posts, read 1,757,009 times
Reputation: 371
Quote:
Originally Posted by muman View Post
Funny, I think most small towns are just as or more similar than bigger cities. I think you should visit NYC and then someplace like Jacksonville, FL or Houston and tell me they're the same.
Of course you have some differences (weather, scenery, etc.) but for the most part almost every place is the same. You have the same problems every where, people have to work, etc. The things that are really important to people are pretty much the same everywhere.

Whether you live in NYC or you live in Jacksonville you're going to get old and die either way. Again the things that are really important to people are the same everywhere. People in the blue states and people in the red states all have the same fate.
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Old 05-23-2010, 10:45 PM
 
Location: At the center of the universe!
1,179 posts, read 1,757,009 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gtownoe View Post
They're not alike at all if you live in one of the higher density nabes in Chicago.

It's a different experience living in a more urban neighborhood in Chicago, Boston, SF than it is in Houston or Atlanta.

Not better or worse, just very different.
Well when I was talking about places being all the same I was talking about life in general. Life is the same almost anywhere. The daily grind is always the daily grind no matter where you do your grinding.
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Old 05-24-2010, 12:57 AM
 
Location: Chicago
721 posts, read 1,573,668 times
Reputation: 449
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmShahi View Post
SCENARIO 2000-2040: Houston Metropolitan Area population estimates

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,295,975
2010 5,979,911 (Where we are now)
2015 6,754,896
2020 7,599,748
2025 8,515,677
2030 9,504,335
2035 10,570,390
2040 11,717,086

As you can see, by 2035 Houston will reach where Chicago almost is right now, meaning not even in the next 30 years will it's metropolitan population overtake Chicago's. But city wise, it's a done deal.
Even at that point, Greater Houston will be playing catch up to DFW.
These projections aren't realistic. At all. Projections take current growth rates, and apply them basically for x numbers of years. They mean nothing, they're just something interesting to look at. Besides, Chicago will have well combined with Milwaukee by 2020 (at the latest). That will add another nearly 3 million people.

City limit wise, it's totally up in the air. I really don't see it happening. It all depends on Chicago's numbers this census. If the city continues to gentrify and affluent Northern neighborhoods start pouring into dilapitated poorer ones, Chicago wins.

I don't even see Houston passing DFW anytime soon, if at all :O.
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Old 05-24-2010, 01:20 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,171 posts, read 12,805,335 times
Reputation: 4047
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dncr View Post
These projections aren't realistic. At all. Projections take current growth rates, and apply them basically for x numbers of years. They mean nothing, they're just something interesting to look at. Besides, Chicago will have well combined with Milwaukee by 2020 (at the latest). That will add another nearly 3 million people.

City limit wise, it's totally up in the air. I really don't see it happening. It all depends on Chicago's numbers this census. If the city continues to gentrify and affluent Northern neighborhoods start pouring into dilapitated poorer ones, Chicago wins.

I don't even see Houston passing DFW anytime soon, if at all :O.
It's not. When Dallas and FW got together, they had Texas pinned, Dallas's weakess is growth now, Fort Worth covers what Dallas is weak in.

Umm, try to keep in mind these are just projections, no need to get worked up or anything, they're just there for an idea. I even listed my source... and if it does combine with Milwaukee, won't that be just for the CSA? And not the MSA or City Proper...

And honestly man, no disrespect but the city population is something I disagree with you on. Yeah I really have doubts it's metropolitan area will beat Chicago's, but I disagree entirely with you on city proper. From 2000 to 2008 Chicago city has lost people, where as it's metro has grown 5%+. You have your opinion- cool, I have mine- and I'm sticking to it.

We'll just see. I'm not debating this any further, I am not a specialist, nor is anyone here on this thread, it's pointless getting worked up for some fictional topic that no one knows the exact answers too. I've done my part to keep the conversation going... Obviously it's headed the wrong way. I'm done here.

It's been a really long day/night..

Last edited by DANNYY; 05-24-2010 at 01:31 AM..
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Old 05-24-2010, 05:04 AM
 
85 posts, read 83,296 times
Reputation: 25
According to the 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, the City of Chicago has 2,986,974 people. So....

Chicago city - 3 million living in (227 sq mi)
Chicago metro-10 million

Houston city - 2.2 million lving in (601 sq mi)
Houston metro-5.7 million

Chicago= The biggest most city in America your going to find outside of NYC(LA is also a big suburb)
Houston=A VERY spread out suburb

H-Town beating Chi-town in pop? Not in my life time.
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Old 05-24-2010, 05:09 AM
 
85 posts, read 83,296 times
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Chicago has grown from 2000 to 2008 and so has the metro population. And that not counting the 450,000 illegal immigrant that live within the city limits of Chicago. Chicago has about 3.5 million if you count everyone.
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Old 05-24-2010, 06:25 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,638 posts, read 27,069,277 times
Reputation: 9580
Quote:
Originally Posted by HumboldtParkRican312 View Post
According to the 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, the City of Chicago has 2,986,974 people. So....

Chicago city - 3 million living in (227 sq mi)
Chicago metro-10 million

Houston city - 2.2 million lving in (601 sq mi)
Houston metro-5.7 million

Chicago= The biggest most city in America your going to find outside of NYC(LA is also a big suburb)Houston=A VERY spread out suburb

H-Town beating Chi-town in pop? Not in my life time.
LA no matter what you may consider it as is a city and it's bigger than Chicago. Also, Chicago is at 9.7 million, not 10 million.

Quote:
It's not. When Dallas and FW got together, they had Texas pinned, Dallas's weakess is growth now, Fort Worth covers what Dallas is weak in.
Actually, Dallas is starting to pick back up. But yeah, FW is growing faster but that is mostly suburban growth.
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