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View Poll Results: Will Houston surpass Chicago as the 3rd largest city by 2020?
Yes 492 41.55%
No 692 58.45%
Voters: 1184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-24-2010, 07:15 AM
 
1,750 posts, read 2,895,896 times
Reputation: 764

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Quote:
Originally Posted by HumboldtParkRican312 View Post
According to the 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, the City of Chicago has 2,986,974 people. So....

Chicago city - 3 million living in (227 sq mi)
Chicago metro-10 million

Houston city - 2.2 million lving in (601 sq mi)
Houston metro-5.7 million

Chicago= The biggest most city in America your going to find outside of NYC(LA is also a big suburb)
Houston=A VERY spread out suburb

H-Town beating Chi-town in pop? Not in my life time.
Huh?
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Old 05-24-2010, 07:23 AM
 
Location: ITL (Houston)
9,223 posts, read 13,842,656 times
Reputation: 3545
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dncr View Post
These projections aren't realistic. At all. Projections take current growth rates, and apply them basically for x numbers of years. They mean nothing, they're just something interesting to look at. Besides, Chicago will have well combined with Milwaukee by 2020 (at the latest). That will add another nearly 3 million people.
Only if commuting patterns between these two cities reach 20% (you need at least one county to do so). I don't think that will happen. They may be together development wise, but not commuting wise, therefore, it won't be one MSA.

Quote:
I don't even see Houston passing DFW anytime soon, if at all :O.
Houston most likely won't be passing up DFW, but both Houston and DFW are fast growing metro areas. I think both will pass up Chicago in the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HumboldtParkRican312 View Post
Chicago has grown from 2000 to 2008 and so has the metro population. And that not counting the 450,000 illegal immigrant that live within the city limits of Chicago. Chicago has about 3.5 million if you count everyone.
So, you're going to try and county illegal immigrants for Chicago and not Houston? I'm betting the Houston area has more illegal immigrants than Chicago, or at least around the same.
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Old 05-24-2010, 07:50 AM
 
1,750 posts, read 2,895,896 times
Reputation: 764
Quote:
Originally Posted by HumboldtParkRican312 View Post
Chicago has grown from 2000 to 2008 and so has the metro population. And that not counting the 450,000 illegal immigrant that live within the city limits of Chicago. Chicago has about 3.5 million if you count everyone.
Do you have stats to back up your statement that Chicago has grown from 2000 to 2008? Everything I have seen has estimated a slight loss in population. Either way, we will not know for sure until the 2010 census is released.
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Old 05-24-2010, 07:59 AM
 
213 posts, read 371,881 times
Reputation: 79
predictions you guys are just going to have to live long enough too see this. I dont believe it will pass Chicago. But then again you never know. Chicago may have another year where it grows also Houston may slow down. who knows. I think Houston really only has the population is has because of how big the city limits are. Thats why Chicago will always be more dense. Even Charlotte is getting ready to annex more land when they dont even have the city developed now. Just annexing and annexing. Next thing you know it will be the 7th largest city
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Old 05-24-2010, 09:13 AM
 
Location: ITL (Houston)
9,223 posts, read 13,842,656 times
Reputation: 3545
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulchild23 View Post
predictions you guys are just going to have to live long enough too see this. I dont believe it will pass Chicago. But then again you never know. Chicago may have another year where it grows also Houston may slow down. who knows. I think Houston really only has the population is has because of how big the city limits are. Thats why Chicago will always be more dense. Even Charlotte is getting ready to annex more land when they dont even have the city developed now. Just annexing and annexing. Next thing you know it will be the 7th largest city
But Houston hasn't annexed anything since 1995, and is releasing land that it could annex. But, if you think cities like Chicago, San Francisco, etc., are glad they can't annex more land, then you're mistaken. The only people that hate that are the city boosters on online forums. Annexing land increases tax base. The City of Houston use to annex only commercial strips (freeway corridors) and left the residential areas behind them alone.
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Old 05-24-2010, 09:24 AM
 
2,531 posts, read 5,466,100 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scarface713 View Post
The City of Houston use to annex only commercial strips (freeway corridors) and left the residential areas behind them alone.

Orlando does that a lot too. If people have a sharp eye, they can tell which parts the city annexed, and which parts are the County. It's really obvious when you're over near Pine Hills.
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Old 05-24-2010, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Dallas, Texas
1,807 posts, read 2,166,258 times
Reputation: 970
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmShahi View Post
SCENARIO 2000-2040: Houston Metropolitan Area population estimates

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,295,975
2010 5,979,911 (Where we are now)
2015 6,754,896
2020 7,599,748
2025 8,515,677
2030 9,504,335
2035 10,570,390
2040 11,717,086

As you can see, by 2035 Houston will reach where Chicago almost is right now, meaning not even in the next 30 years will it's metropolitan population overtake Chicago's. But city wise, it's a done deal.
Even at that point, Greater Houston will be playing catch up to DFW.
While Texas did provide the straight line 2000 - 2007 numbers you are providing here, in their methodology section they say that these aren't the most reasonable projections. They recommend the 0.5 scenario projection described in the link you gave (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/cgi-bin/prj2008totnum.cgi - broken link).

Using what Texas recommends, these are more reasonable projected numbers for the Houston metro:

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,120,772
2010 5,545,836 (Where we are now)
2015 5,988,118
2020 6,443,005
2025 6,916,071
2030 7,400,720
2035 7,894,728
2040 8,398,069

Since this is from Texas, of course, there is no direct comparison to the Chicago Metro's expected growth using the same methodology (unless someone here wants to go crazy with the math and equations!), but here is DFW's numbers for comparison:

2000 5,161,544
2005 5,670,067
2010 6,197,626 (Where we are now)
2015 6,752,624
2020 7,340,276
2025 7,973,661
2030 8,648,972
2035 9,360,983
2040 10,107,348

Of course, even these more reasonable projections are just projections, and who knows how migration and population patterns will play out in the next 30 years.

Last edited by Fillmont; 05-24-2010 at 10:04 AM..
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Old 05-24-2010, 10:45 AM
 
213 posts, read 371,881 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scarface713 View Post
But Houston hasn't annexed anything since 1995, and is releasing land that it could annex. But, if you think cities like Chicago, San Francisco, etc., are glad they can't annex more land, then you're mistaken. The only people that hate that are the city boosters on online forums. Annexing land increases tax base. The City of Houston use to annex only commercial strips (freeway corridors) and left the residential areas behind them alone.
With that said it only got that population because it Annexed.. Period End of story.
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Old 05-24-2010, 11:06 AM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,187,488 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulchild23 View Post
With that said it only got that population because it Annexed.. Period End of story.

Agree comparing cities with such different sizes is apples to oranges; the cities of Chicago, SF, Boston, DC, Philadelphia, and Baltimore all could fit inside the Houston boundaries with room to spare
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Old 05-24-2010, 11:36 AM
 
Location: ITL (Houston)
9,223 posts, read 13,842,656 times
Reputation: 3545
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fillmont View Post
While Texas did provide the straight line 2000 - 2007 numbers you are providing here, in their methodology section they say that these aren't the most reasonable projections. They recommend the 0.5 scenario projection described in the link you gave (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/cgi-bin/prj2008totnum.cgi - broken link).

Using what Texas recommends, these are more reasonable projected numbers for the Houston metro:

2000 4,715,407
2005 5,120,772
2010 5,545,836 (Where we are now)
2015 5,988,118
2020 6,443,005
2025 6,916,071
2030 7,400,720
2035 7,894,728
2040 8,398,069

Since this is from Texas, of course, there is no direct comparison to the Chicago Metro's expected growth using the same methodology (unless someone here wants to go crazy with the math and equations!)
You do realize that Houston is ahead of the 2010 projection by about 500,000 right? That's why the projections OmShahi posted are more correct. Basically, the 2015 projection, from what you posted, is about where Houston is at now.

Quote:
but here is DFW's numbers for comparison:

2000 5,161,544
2005 5,670,067
2010 6,197,626 (Where we are now)
2015 6,752,624
2020 7,340,276
2025 7,973,661
2030 8,648,972
2035 9,360,983
2040 10,107,348

Of course, even these more reasonable projections are just projections, and who knows how migration and population patterns will play out in the next 30 years.
DFW is the same as Houston. It reached the 2010 number two years ago. So, going by what Texas "recommends", DFW is ahead of the projection by about two years, and Houston is ahead by the "recommended" projection by about five.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulchild23 View Post
With that said it only got that population because it Annexed.. Period End of story.
You do realize all cities have annexed right? That's like saying NYC is at 8 million only because it annexed Brooklyn, etc., over 100 years ago. Do you hold a grudge against NYC? Houston is done annexing and is now getting denser in its city limits (with ANY kind of residential development).
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