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It's called status, and wether you agree with me or not, Chicago already suffers from international recognition.
Tourists don't care about the relative size of a city. Orlando and Vegas are huge tourist centers. Venice is one of the biggest tourist centers in the world. Venice has like 60k people.
If Houston isn't a tourist center at #4, why would it be a tourist center at #3? What does that have to do with anything?
None of this makes Chicago a bad city but it is no longer competitive in growth terms and its immigration rate has fallen alarmingly since the 1990s. To make matters worse, the gap Chicago built between it and the 4th largest area is narrowing by the day at the wrong time for Chicago (as it stagnates in growth).
To be rather honest though, Houston isn't a priority to Chicago in this sense. I think there are THREE areas that are higher on Chicago's list of imminent replacements with Washington DC/Baltimore CSA, San Francisco Bay Area CSA, Dallas/Fort Worth CSA, and then little tiny Houston CSA.
By 2020 there is ZERO doubt about it, Washington DC/Baltimore CSA will have surpassed Chicago CSA by then. By natural increase and if trends hold, then the San Francisco Bay Area should tally in as 9.1 million on the 2020 census and by the 2023 Census Re-definitions it will add in Modesto-Merced into its CSA and will overtake Chicago CSA then. Dallas/Fort Worth will come a decade or so after these two, and Houston a decade or so (officially) after Dallas/Fort Worth.
So to reiterate, Houston isn't first in line to pass Chicago (unless city limits are the only thing important) but is instead 4th. I would also say these four pose Chicago with the most challenges at remaining 3rd.
To be rather honest, I want ALL 4 of them to surpass Chicago CSA. Chicago is a laggard for its size, it is the 3rd largest metropolis in population and cant handle its weight as it is 5th in GDP. These places surpassing it will free Chicago from the scrutiny of having to deliver in correspondence to its population size with GDP, in my opinion.
Off of City-Data and other forums as such, this probably doesn't matter. For what it is worth, I really like all 5 areas. Would have zero issue living in any of them and I have lived in 4 out of 5 of them, the one I haven't lived in is the city I've visited more than any that I haven't lived in.
Houston has the potential to pass Chicago, it has not happened yet. Is this including undocumented residents or just people who are on the grid? That could make a huge difference.
The light rail idea could really help Houston but I'm not sure what effect it would have on population growth. The city has a lot of room to grow both up and out, and considering that there are three huge skylines in the city and no zoning laws, what is to stop the city from building?
The cities are like two different planets...population ranking is about the only comparable thing.
Will the City of Houston pass the City of Chicago in population sometime relatively soon? Yes.
Will the Houston Metro pass the Chicago Metro anytime soon? No, though maybe down the road
Will Houston ever be as important a city as Chicago in the forseeable future? No
Will the City of Houston pass the City of Chicago in population sometime relatively soon? Yes.
Will the Houston Metro pass the Chicago Metro anytime soon? No, though maybe down the road
Will Houston ever be as important a city as Chicago in the forseeable future? No
Exactly. Houston will never be as popular as Chicago to nationals or internationals, either, because although Houston is a great city in its own right for many different reasons, it doesn't do anything to market itself.
Will the City of Houston pass the City of Chicago in population sometime relatively soon? Yes.
Will the Houston Metro pass the Chicago Metro anytime soon? No, though maybe down the road
Will Houston ever be as important a city as Chicago in the forseeable future? No
Exactly. Houston will never be as popular as Chicago to nationals or internationals, either, because although Houston is a great city in its own right for many different reasons, it doesn't do anything to market itself.
The NASA connection Houston has, to this day, is still actually quite potent; many people from around the world can still recite the catchphrase with no problem. However, as time goes on, such a connection is fading, and Houston will indeed have to pursue stronger marketing ventures if it wants to have international recognition.
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