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View Poll Results: Will Houston surpass Chicago as the 3rd largest city by 2020?
Yes 492 41.59%
No 691 58.41%
Voters: 1183. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-26-2015, 10:15 AM
 
619 posts, read 441,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMBX View Post
Will the City of Houston pass the City of Chicago in population sometime relatively soon? Yes.
Will the Houston Metro pass the Chicago Metro anytime soon? No, though maybe down the road
Will Houston ever be as important a city as Chicago in the forseeable future? No
How do you rank importance?
Too many people smaller cities such as DC, and SF are more important than Chicago.

To some Houston and Boston are already now important than Chicago or almost already there.

To some Philadelphia have always been more important.

To me Chicago is moving further away from that New York Tier and closer towards that DC, Bay area, Boston, Houston, and Philadelphia tier. While Houston is leaving Philadelphia behind, has become on par with Boston and nearing Chicago.

A decade ago Chicago was miles ahead in GDP, probably a 50% plus difference. Now it's what? 10%?
By GDP Houston had passes Philadelphia, DFW, Boston and DC. If Houston diversified it's logistics and Manufacturing industry and become more of a player in biotechnology, I would see the Bay area being more competition for Houston than Chicago.


How I saw it 10 years ago:

Tier 1: NY
Tier 2: LA
Tier 3: Chicago and DC
Tier 4: the Bay area and Boston
Tier 5: Philadelphia
Tier 6: DFW, Detroit and Houston
Tier 7: Atlanta and Miami

How I See it Now:

Tier 1: NY
Tier 2: LA
Tier 3: DC, The Bay area and Chicago
Tier 4: Houston and Boston
Tier 5: DFW and Philadelphia
Tier 6: Atlanta, and Miami
Tier 7: Detroit, Seattle, Minneapolis St Paul

How I See it in a decade or two:

Tier 1: NY
Tier 2: LA, DC, The Bay area
Tier 3: Houston and Chicago
Tier 4: Boston and DFW
Tier 5: Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami
Tier 6: MSP and Seattle
Tier 7: Detroit, Denver, Phoenix, etc

I think that Houston is well positioned to benefit from trade to the rapidly developing Latin American world and the Panama Canal expansion should help trade with Asian countries
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Old 07-26-2015, 10:36 AM
 
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Houston should just annex another 1000 miles or so and become larger than NYC.
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Old 07-26-2015, 10:38 AM
 
Location: The Dirty South.
1,573 posts, read 1,430,903 times
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I would never say Houston will NEVER be more important than Chicago. Houston might be more important someday. Houston is still a young city that has yet to meet it's peak. While Chicago already met it's peak years ago.
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Old 07-26-2015, 11:54 AM
 
619 posts, read 441,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb View Post
Houston should just annex another 1000 miles or so and become larger than NYC.
Population has little to do with importance.

And LA is the only city with enough people around its city to annex 1000 sq miles and get enough people to pass NY in city limits. Outside the 4.2M people in Harris County there is little there in those huge counties.

Like it or not the business atmosphere in these sunbelt cities combined with the near limitless availability of space makes these sunbelt cities great for jobs. Houston' s central location positions it to be one of the greater gainers.

As it is Houston goes almost toe to toe with Chicago on the GDP front.
it far surpasses Chicago on per capita gdp.

Chicago is a huge player in the US importance game, but don't under estimate Houston's ability to adapt and change with the times.

Cotton was its bread and butter in the mid 1800s. Then while other southern cities were trying to cling to cotton it branched into other commodities. Then it got into the shipping and logistics game. Then it entered and dominated oil. Oil then diversified into Energy and Manufacturing. Now the healthcare industry is growing along with logistics.

So, Population gain is just a side effect of an ever growing economy
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Old 07-26-2015, 12:40 PM
 
9,701 posts, read 7,258,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atadytic19 View Post
To some Houston and Boston are already now important than Chicago or almost already there.
Not really. There's no metric where Houston and Boston have the same economic size as Chicago.

And why are you grouping in Houston and Boston? They're totally different cities.
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Old 07-26-2015, 12:43 PM
 
9,701 posts, read 7,258,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atadytic19 View Post
Population has little to do with importance.
Really? I would say that relative population size is one of the biggest proxies for relative importance.

Why would population not be relevant? What U.S. metro of 2 million is more important than a U.S. metro of 6 million? What U.S. metro of 1 million is more important than a U.S. metro of 3 million?
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Old 07-26-2015, 01:06 PM
 
619 posts, read 441,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Not really. There's no metric where Houston and Boston have the same economic size as Chicago.

And why are you grouping in Houston and Boston? They're totally different cities.
I said to some, Houston is more important. And yes, Houston does trump Chicago in economic grow, economic outlook and per capita gdp.

And I group Houston in line with Boston because they are on similar levels of importance. Of course they are totally different cities. Boston is not Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston or anywhere but Boston.

Houston leads Boston on GDP and other Metrics but as of now I think they are on the same footing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Really? I would say that relative population size is one of the biggest proxies for relative importance.


Why would population not be relevant? What U.S. metro of 2 million is more important than a U.S. metro of 6 million? What U.S. metro of 1 million is more important than a U.S. metro of 3 million?
I Said Population is of little importance, i never said it had little relevance. I am not too fond of CSA because it is too far overreaching but let's use it because they make almost every large city other than Houston look more important.

Anyway, DC has a CSA population near 9M, Boston is in the 8M range and DFW and Philadelphia are in the 7 M range. HOUSTON at 6.5 million has a larger economic output than all these cities. So if population was such a big factor, Houston should not be able to compete. It is about the sane size as Miami but the economic output is almost twice as large.


Looking at MSA, which I rather prefer, Houston is smaller than DFW, but had a larger GDP. At that level it is also much larger than Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and far far larger than Atlanta and Miami.

Population may be a factor, but not a very important factor.
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Old 07-26-2015, 01:37 PM
 
619 posts, read 441,026 times
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I was too generous ranking Chicago on the same level with DC and The Bay area.

2013 Combined Statistical Area(CSA) Gross Product

Tier: 1
New York-Newark $1.683 Trillion (23.4 million people)

Tier 2:
Los Angeles-Long Beach $999.661 Billion (18.4 million people)

Tier 3:
San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland $664.687 Billion (8.4 million people)
Washington-Baltimore-Arlington $657.039 Billion (9.4 million people)

Tier 4:
Chicago-Naperville $597.805 Billion (9.9 million people)
Houston-The Woodlands $517.367 Billion (6.5 million people)
Boston-Worcester-Providence $514.586 Billion (8.0 million people)

Tier 5:
Dallas-Ft Worth $451.436 Billion (7.2 million people)
Philadelphia-Reading-Camden $429.838 Billion (7.1 million people)

Tier 6:
Atlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs $314.759 Billion (6.1 million people)
Seattle-Tacoma $309.577 Billion (4.5 million people)
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-Port St Lucie $297.071 Billion (6.4 million people)

Tier 7:
Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor $262.166 Billion (5.2 million people)
Minneapolis-St Paul $236.389 Billion (3.7 million people)
Denver-Aurora $209.648 Billion (3.4 million people)




2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

Tier 1:
New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Tier 2:
Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Tier 3
Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)
Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Tier 4:
Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)
Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)

Tier 5:
San Francisco $388.272 Billion (4.5 million people)
Philadelphia $383.401 Billion (6.0 million people)
Boston $370.769 Billion (4.6 million people)

Tier 6:
Seattle $307.769 Billion (3.8 million people)
Atlanta $307.233 Billion (5.5 million people)
Miami $281.076 Billion (5.8 million people)

Tier 7:
Minneapolis $227.793 Billion (3.4 million people)
Detroit $224.726 Billion (4.2 million people)
Phoenix $209.523 Billion (4.4 million people)
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Old 07-26-2015, 02:48 PM
 
492 posts, read 1,018,909 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atadytic19 View Post



2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

Tier 1:
New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Tier 2:
Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Tier 3
Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)
Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Tier 4:
Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)
Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)
Houston might have just left Chicago in the dust this year (2015).
Next year Houston will have run over Chicago it's only obvious.
.
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Old 07-26-2015, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,639 posts, read 27,073,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjester View Post
Houston might have just left Chicago in the dust this year (2015).
Next year Houston will have run over Chicago it's only obvious.
.
Hard to say right now. I think with downtown in oil, the GDP may show a slowdown. But it wouldn't have passed Chicago this year even if it continued its growth.
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