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Houston will not pass Chicago, at least not in anyone on this boards lifetime. Heck, it's gotta pass Philly and Dallas first. Houston only has a little over half of the Chicago area population now. Only 4 million more to go (and that's if Chicago doesn't grow at all)!
Houston will not pass Chicago, at least not in anyone on this boards lifetime. Heck, it's gotta pass Philly and Dallas first. Houston only has a little over half of the Chicago area population now. Only 4 million more to go (and that's if Chicago doesn't grow at all)!
Houston will pass Philly within the next year or so as far as metro population goes. It may have already passed it by now anyway. But yeah, this was talking about city population.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muman
Houston will not pass Chicago, at least not in anyone on this boards lifetime. Heck, it's gotta pass Philly and Dallas first. Houston only has a little over half of the Chicago area population now. Only 4 million more to go (and that's if Chicago doesn't grow at all)!
City population man, not metro, that's a topic for a whole different thread haha.
But you're right though, before Houston worry about Chicago's metro, it has to rival Dallas's.
A hundred years from now Houston will be second only to NYC in Size and importance. Its just hard to see right now, because houston is so young, but it has the right formula in place.
Its like looking at a kid and trying to figure out if he/she is destined for greatness.
Chicago lacks access to a large, international seaport equivalent to the gulf. Seaports and Airports anchor a metroplis' commerce and overall wealth creation, and it is those market forces that ultimately determine the potential size and influence of a metro.
Airports are much easier to come by than good seaports, because a for a good airport essentially all you need is relatively flat open land, which is easier to find than a spot for a good seaport, because for a good seaport its all about how nature positioned the coastal land and current flow. So a good seaport is a Metro's most valuable asset (always has been, and always will be) which is Why NYC is by far the biggest and most influential city in America, and has been for a long time.
Chicago is older than Houston, and is alot closer to reaching its full potential, if it has not reached it already. People seem to be in denial, or maybe they just don't know, that Houston has not even reached a fraction of its full potential yet; Like I said ealier its currently still in its early stages of developement.
Because of Houson's access to the gulf, it currently has way more jobs, and job creation potential, than it has people to fill all of those jobs. Its job market is the strongest of any big city in America right now, and this, coupled with its low COL, is the key to its current and future growth and maturation.
Last edited by killakoolaide; 04-13-2010 at 01:20 PM..
I don't think Houston will ever become America's number 2 city, but it will certainly grow in importance with every year that comes. With Houston's top industries being energy, medicine, and the Port of Houston, I think there will always be a need for these industries, which makes it great for the city's future.
To answer the OP's question, I think Houston will eventually pass Chicago's population city limits wise (for reasons mentioned in other posts), but not in the metropolitan area count.
A hundred years from now Houston will be second only to NYC in Size and importance. Its just hard to see right now, because houston is so young, but it has the right formula in place.
Its like looking at a kid and trying to figure out if he/she is destined for greatness.
Chicago lacks access to a large, international seaport equivalent to the gulf. Seaports and Airports anchor a metroplis' commerce and overall wealth creation, and it is those market forces that ultimately determine the potential size and influence of a metro.
Airports are much easier to come by than good seaports, because a for a good airport essentially all you need is relatively flat open land, which is easier to find than a spot for a good seaport, because for a good seaport its all about how nature positioned the coastal land and current flow. So a good seaport is a Metro's most valuable asset (always has been, and always will be) which is Why NYC is by far the biggest and most influential city in America, and has been for a long time.
Chicago is older than Houston, and is alot closer to reaching its full potential, if it has not reached it already. People seem to be in denial, or maybe they just don't know, that Houston has not even reached a fraction of its full potential yet; Like I said ealier its currently still in its early stages of developement.
Because of Houson's access to the gulf, it currently has way more jobs, and job creation potential, than it has people to fill all of those jobs. Its job market is the strongest of any big city in America right now, and this, coupled with its low COL, is the key to its current and future growth and maturation.
I like your analogy, it works.
Chicago might not be by a large sea port, it does, however, have Lake Michigan and O'Hare.
And actually, Houston was incorporated just a month after Chicago was.
Houston proper will pass up Chicago, it has nearly three times the area. The metro, however, will not. I don't see Houston having a larger population than Chicago for long as I see Chicago picking itself up and Houston falling along with the rest of the Sunbelt.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thePR
I like your analogy, it works.
Chicago might not be by a large sea port, it does, however, have Lake Michigan and O'Hare.
And actually, Houston was incorporated just a month after Chicago was.
Houston proper will pass up Chicago, it has nearly three times the area. The metro, however, will not. I don't see Houston having a larger population than Chicago for long as I see Chicago picking itself up and Houston falling along with the rest of the Sunbelt.
A hundred years from now Houston will be second only to NYC in Size and importance.
Um, say that again? I guess I can see the size...but you're guessing on too much. 100 years is a long time. There are so many variables that you couldn't possibly predict this. How do you know other cities in the region like Dallas and Atlanta don't start luring talent from Houston? How do you know San Francisco, Washington DC, and Boston don't push further ahead of Houston in importance in fifteen years? What makes you think it will catch Chicago in importance? Size doesn't not necessarily mean importance...and finally, what makes you think Houston is going to be larger and more important than Los Angeles?!?!
Quote:
Its just hard to see right now, because houston is so young, but it has the right formula in place.
Is the formula for insanely fast growth the same as sustainable prosperity? Chicago grew much, much faster than Houston...yet their model somehow hit a wall at some point along the way. Low COL only lasts for so long. Once Houston exits the "high growth" phase and has a COL that is closer to that of Washington, San Francisco and Boston how will it fare?
One thing that may separate Houston from cities like Dallas and Phoenix is that it has a good university closeby (Rice)...but it will put it slightly behind Atlanta (Emory & GTech) and far behind cities like SF, Chicago & those in the Boston-Washington Corrider. Remember, we're talking about after the growth phase of Houston has completed.
Quote:
Chicago lacks access to a large, international seaport equivalent to the gulf. Seaports and Airports anchor a metroplis' commerce and overall wealth creation, and it is those market forces that ultimately determine the potential size and influence of a metro.
Chicago does have access to the Great Lakes and a great set of airports. Those two factors are important...but what about service-based industries? You don't need to haul in financial analysts & accountants via container ship.
Quote:
So a good seaport is a Metro's most valuable asset (always has been, and always will be) which is Why NYC is by far the biggest and most influential city in America, and has been for a long time.
It certainly helped New York become what it is today, but I'd be interested to see how much it affects New York's power in the present day.
Quote:
Chicago is older than Houston, and is alot closer to reaching its full potential, if it has not reached it already.
That's possible.
Quote:
People seem to be in denial, or maybe they just don't know, that Houston has not even reached a fraction of its full potential yet; Like I said ealier its currently still in its early stages of developement.
Yea...but you can't assume that just because a city is doing well it's going to continue at a constant pace and blow everything in its way out of the water.
Quote:
Because of Houson's access to the gulf, it currently has way more jobs, and job creation potential, than it has people to fill all of those jobs. Its job market is the strongest of any big city in America right now, and this, coupled with its low COL, is the key to its current and future growth and maturation.
Houston is in good shape right now, thanks to all the oil jobs which have been (relatively) unaffected by this recession...but what happens if oil goes bust anytime soon? I know Houston has a decently diversified economy...but oil still remains its primary industry.
Not to say that Houston can't or won't achieve these things...but to predict that in 100 years a city will be a success or a failure is ridiculous.
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