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Check out the growth of Houston in the last 10 years compared to other cities. If Houston keeps up with this pace of growth. Houston could pass Chicago in the near future.
Maybe, Houston has gained 500,000 people since 1990. They'd have to grow at an even higher rate to surpass Chicago IMO. Chicago is gaining population again. 2011 estimates were a small growth, but if you pay attention to what's going on in Chicago, you know that it will gain faster than that or should. Lot of companies moving to Chicago from either out of state or the suburbs (i.e. Google is moving 3000 employees from the burbs to River North in the matter of a few months from now). If the rates continue though, I bet in 40 years Houston could do it, city wise, but predicting out 40 years from now (let alone 20) is pretty damn hard to do.
Chicago's MSA population still has over 3 million more people than Houston's (and Dallas's). At current MSA growth rates (2000 to 2010), it would take about 260-270 years for Houston to overtake Chicago's MSA population if all rates were steady every 10 years at their current rates. If you do the same but for the city, then it will take Houston 150-160 years to overtake Chicago. Of course we all know growth rates are not steady so who the hell knows. Thought it would be interesting to calculate that out.
Last edited by marothisu; 03-05-2013 at 09:44 PM..
I don't see Houston keeping up its growth rate, for one. Not for 20+ more years. Infrastructure is a B!
I don't see Chicago keeping up its great decline....it'll steady out if not rebound in the city, boosting the metro growth rate.
Maybe, Houston has gained 500,000 people since 1990. They'd have to grow at an even higher rate to surpass Chicago IMO. Chicago is gaining population again. 2011 estimates were a small growth, but if you pay attention to what's going on in Chicago, you know that it will gain faster than that or should. Lot of companies moving to Chicago from either out of state or the suburbs (i.e. Google is moving 3000 employees from the burbs to River North in the matter of a few months from now). If the rates continue though, I bet in 40 years Houston could do it, city wise, but predicting out 40 years from now (let alone 20) is pretty damn hard to do.
Chicago's MSA population still has over 3 million more people than Houston's (and Dallas's). At current MSA growth rates (2000 to 2010), it would take about 260-270 years for Houston to overtake Chicago's MSA population if all rates were steady every 10 years at their current rates. If you do the same but for the city, then it will take Houston 150-160 years to overtake Chicago. Of course we all know growth rates are not steady so who the hell knows. Thought it would be interesting to calculate that out.
I'd LOVE to see your math, and I only say that because I do this kind of thing for a living and for the life of me I can't fathom how you came up with your data!
Houston city proper is growing quickly, and Chicago city proper has some significant decline, so Houston may eventually surpass. We'll see.
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