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Los Angeles made the news not to long ago for surpassing 1 trillion GDP as a metro area. After researching this a bit, I surprised to learn they are one of only three in the world.
Will any other metro area (sorry, no CSA's) in the United States pass this milestone? Which one? Why and how?
Among the contestants, it seems San Francisco, though far from being a trillion dollar metro, is punching far above its weight class as a sub 5 million person MSA.
Other general food for thought-
How has Chicago, one of the dominant cities in the world by the 1890's, not achieved this already?
How strong of a correlation is there between MSA population and GDP?
I feel like it has to be Chicago or San Francisco, based on current borders. Going by the change in the two metros' real GDP from 2012 to 2018 (according to Wikipedia), they both need another fifteen years to reach a trillion. I couldn't vote for both, so I choose San Francisco because I felt like that MSA had a much better chance of physically expanding within the next fifteen years than Chicago's MSA.
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Out of the top 5 MSA's by GDP.
NY
LA
Chicago
SF
DC
The only one remotely close at that metric is Chicago, but it's just churning along at about par with the average growth rate of GDP by metro. DC, SF, and also Dallas are all in the half trillion range by MSA.
Also it's pretty disingenuous to say no CSA's when all 5 of them thrive in their MSA GDP due to how big their overall larger regional economy strength. GDP doesn't stop at imaginary MSA borders sorry.
I feel like it has to be Chicago or San Francisco, based on current borders. Going by the change in the two metros' real GDP from 2012 to 2018 (according to Wikipedia), they both need another fifteen years to reach a trillion. I couldn't vote for both, so I choose San Francisco because I felt like that MSA had a much better chance of physically expanding within the next fifteen years than Chicago's MSA.
I voted Dallas because of the percent change in MSA growth over the years, massive and growing population, diverse economy, existing infrastructure like DART, etc.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soonhun
I feel like it has to be Chicago or San Francisco, based on current borders. Going by the change in the two metros' real GDP from 2012 to 2018 (according to Wikipedia), they both need another fifteen years to reach a trillion. I couldn't vote for both, so I choose San Francisco because I felt like that MSA had a much better chance of physically expanding within the next fifteen years than Chicago's MSA.
You see San Francisco MSA alone, doubling its entire GDP output $540 billion in 15 years???
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Losfrisco
Going by the wikipedia data on growth from 2012, is seems somewhat plausible.
Lol. Yea uhhh. Wouldn't hold my breath on that one, especially post pandemic. Bay Area GDP is already a trillion. Which is strong, 3rd in CSA GDP is just fine. It would take a quarter century at least for SF-Oakland alone to surpass 1 trillion in my view.
It will be pretty close between San Fran and Dallas IMO. Dallas has been on steroids in terms of growth, San Fran is just in a league of its own when it comes to innovation and seems to function fairly independent of the U.S. Economy. Chicago may or may not make it, my hope isnt very high in it but it 'could' happen so to speak.
I'll be surprised if it's not San Francisco. It's got by far the most potential of the cities listed.
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