By 2020 will DC's CSA edge out Chicago's? (ranking, market, airport)

[personone]

Originally Posted by the resident09

Crime in Chicago is much more of a concern especially since the cities combined DC and Baltimore make up 1/3 of Chicago's population and land mass. As far as the CSA goes those are the primary two places where you have the most crime within DC or Baltimore proper. That's only like a combined 150 sq miles out of more than 8000 sq miles, some suburbs have minimal crime in Maryland but regardless the only buffer zone between these two cities are literally some of the wealthiest counties in the entire country. You cannot get from Baltimore to DC without riding through at least one of them.

DC crime is about as bad as Chicago, and Baltimore's definitely worse. There are also plenty of nice suburbs in Chicago's CSA. Also given how much smaller and denser DC and Baltimore are, crime would be a much bigger concern in those cities. If you ask the average Chicagoan, they probably haven't experienced any crime. That's because of the land mass argument you made. Chicago is physically large, and the crime-ridden neighborhoods are physically far away from downtown and the nice neighborhoods. In Baltimore and certain parts of DC, since they are smaller, you can be in a nice neighborhood and 2 blocks away be in a terrible neighborhood. Because of Chicago's size, that's not as big of a problem.

[Mezter]

Originally Posted by ColdAilment

I see billboard signs all the time in the Chicago area talking about "Second City". McDonald's has one, saying, "We added a second patty for America's second city". So yes, despite being third largest they hold the second city title even still.

Isn't Chicago called the 2nd city because the first Chicago burned to the ground?

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by TyBrGr

Chicago has had horrible spikes in murders over the last few years, & I believe it even beat out NYC for the most murders a few years ago. DC has actually gone down over the last 2 decades, & is currently stabalized at 100 murders a year. So your statements aren't entirely true. Baltimore does have a horrendous murder rate, but if people want to leave Baltimore, they move to DC. So the region never really loses population because of this

Chicago used to have over 900 murders a year in the early 1990's. The 500 murders in 2012 is nothing compared to the early 90's, and it has steadily fallen every year since 2012, so give it a rest and stop spreading lies about Chicago's murder rate.

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by TyBrGr

Most people I know from LA consider it to be America's current second city, despite Chicago being the historical second city. It really just depends on where you are from what you call each city

No it doesn't. Chicago has had the nickname "Second City" for over a century. It's not called second city because of population obviously.

There are a few reasons it's called Second City:

A country's "Second City" is usually regarded as the second most important city

For most of its life it actually was the second most populous, and for a time was just right behind New York City, before New York City annexed 5 of its boroughs.

There was a book in the 1950's that helped popularize the name "Second City"

The Second City is also popularized after the Great Chicago Fire, they set out to build a second city, a new one from the ashes, not of wood and concrete, but of steel and glass.

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by Mezter

Isn't Chicago called the 2nd city because the first Chicago burned to the ground?

Yes, that is where most of the name originates from.

Chicago, Second City and Windy City Origins : chicagology

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by MassVt

The OP seems almost desperate in his attempt to boost DC over Chicago.

Exactly. It's becoming quite amusing. Yesterday it was shopping vs. Atlanta and cityscape and urban form vs. Paris.

What's next? I'm guessing subtle yet compelling comparisons to some obscure element of New York.

[compactspace]

Ah, the old CSA thing again. A useful container around clusters of cities for policymakers and statisticians conducting top-down analysis.

Except here, where it's been hilariously co-opted by the otherwise urbanity-loving denizens of city-data as padding for their arguments. Your little town can stand proud and be part of something Big because 20 of its people commute 60 miles to work through greenfields and sparse suburbia.

But I suppose the socialist in me thinks it's cute: united we stand and all that.

Perhaps we should re-phrase the question: will the DC Urban Area surpass the Chicago Urban Area? Well, you never know. It might.

[18Montclair]

Anyway, no one has a crystal ball but doing doing some rough math with current population growth trends, I guesstimate the following:

2020
Washington DC 10,375,221
Chicago 10,079,211
San Francisco 9,236,979
Boston 8,391,979
Dallas 8,164,561
Houston 7,468,873
Philadelphia 7,333,235

2025
Washington DC 11,122,236
Chicago 10,209,285
San Francisco 9,833,644
Dallas 8,940,194
Boston 8,652,969
Houston 8,270,684
Philadelphia 7,609,464

2030
Washington DC 11,923,037
San Francisco 10,468,259
Chicago 10,340,981
Dallas 9,789,572
Houston 9,157,684
Boston 8,922,076
Philadelphia 7,751,447

This doesnt include potential counties added in the future. Milwaukee is within commuting distance of Chicago, Sacramento is,within commuting distance of San Francisco and Philadelphia is within commuting distance of New York.

For example, the number of Sacramento residents who commute to the Bay Area shot up by 50% in the last census. If that trend continues or even accelerates with the forthcoming bullet train and hideously high home prices pushing workers farther out, then the Bay Area actually stands to add quite a few central valley counties, not to mention Monterey Bay and counties north of the wine country, and the Sierra foothills.

So this is far from over.

[steeps]

It still seems to me as the Whole.... Northeast corridor? Will have their CSA MSA grow together? It will have less warranted to separate one region as a 2nd and 3rd in the nation, Especially 20-30 years out ? It will be more one Big MEGALOPOLIS, Boston to DC? and between Philly, Baltimore and DC? Or at least become ..." The Greater Baltimore/Washington DC Region? As the Airport already suggest.

Chicagoland will remain its own distinct region even with a MSA that might included Milwaukee?
Philly already has a CSA to Atlantic City and MSA to Cape May NJ. NYC takes Northern NJ. Guess Baltimore, DC will get Delaware?

[TommyCarcetti]

Originally Posted by DistrictSonic

DC and Baltimore as cities are not that intertwined, but the southern suburbs of Baltimore outside of Baltimore county, are also suburbs of DC. So it can get a little confusing. But the cities themselves they are disconnected. I am not sure DC will link up with Baltimore in an MSA, but DC's MSA is likely to expand into the Baltimore suburbs. The truth is about Baltimore, in terms of a city it is not doing too well.

Why am I constantly amazed by how uninformed people are about Baltimore?

Yo DistrictSonic, the Baltimore Metro generated more jobs in 2014 than the DC Metro (21,900 vs. 20,800). Baltimore's job growth rate is more than twice as high 1.6% vs 0.7%. How is Baltimore not doing too well? This isn't the 1980s people. The Wire is great entertainment but it is hardly an accurate depiction of Baltimore City's future, more so a depiction of its past. The present is somewhere in between.

Yes, the Washington/Baltimore DC CSA will surpass the Chicago CSA in the near future. Let's be clear though, this wouldn't be happening without the assistance of the Baltimore region.

And for the record, most people in Baltimore could care less about DC and I'm sure many DC natives feel the same.