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Old 03-26-2015, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
31,582 posts, read 53,131,516 times
Reputation: 14503

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Quote:
Originally Posted by anonelitist View Post
Reading history - I suppose the point was predicting a future cool off. Yes, that is bound to happen.

The fact that the Bay Area is defined by boom and bust (as it has been since it has existed), as is practically every globally important city/region, is why the Bay Area is as big and powerful as it is today. The Bay Area will continue to boom and bust, and each boom will increase the high water mark for population, influence, GDP, and the stuff that comes along with that.

Arguably, this "boom" is nowhere near the bubble of 1999-2001. The fundamentals are all completely different. There's definitely a cycle, but a "cool off" will be warranted, not some big "pop". But then I wonder if that means the next "boom" will be subdued compared to this one.
No one has a crystal ball, but this boom is different. The early 2000s was all about dot coms. This time, the valley is deeply entrenched in everything from automotive to medical devices to fintech to the cloud to energy to wireless communications to media and multimedia.

The Bay Area's "tech" economy has diversified greatly in the past decade.

Our only real threats to population growth is exorbitant housing prices and aging infrastructure. I cant believe how bad traffic has become in the Bay Area.

The Inner Bay is absuredly expensive.
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Old 03-26-2015, 03:34 PM
 
Location: LoS ScAnDaLoUs KiLLa CaLI
1,227 posts, read 1,118,392 times
Reputation: 1179
Man, do you guys go to children's birthday parties and tell them all the horrible stuff that goes on in the world?

A lot of you guys are trying your darnedest to rain on people's parades. You should really seek some counseling for that
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Old 03-26-2015, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
31,582 posts, read 53,131,516 times
Reputation: 14503
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lets Eat Candy View Post
Man, do you guys go to children's birthday parties and tell them all the horrible stuff that goes on in the world?

A lot of you guys are trying your darnedest to rain on people's parades. You should really seek some counseling for that
I dont know if your referring to me, but Im just addng to what anonelitist said, that the current boom in the Bay Area is more sustainable than past booms and actually healthier.

That said, we need to address:

1.The severe lack of affordable housing.

2. Aging Infrastructure that is bursting at the seams.

That said, I expect the pop growth to continue and I expect the Bay Area GDP to hit $700B when bea.gov releases metro area gdps later this year, but we shall see.
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Old 03-26-2015, 04:06 PM
 
Location: LoS ScAnDaLoUs KiLLa CaLI
1,227 posts, read 1,118,392 times
Reputation: 1179
Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
I dont know if your referring to me, but Im just addng to what anonelitist said, that the current boom in the Bay Area is more sustainable than past booms and actually healthier.
Nah, it's a general post for everyone.

"Oh your area is growing!"
"Here's 20,000 reasons why that doesn't matter...."

Who the **** does that? What drives a person to be like that? I hope you guys aren't that way to your significant others.
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Old 03-26-2015, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Westside Grand Rapids
3,570 posts, read 3,041,921 times
Reputation: 5494
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lets Eat Candy View Post
Nah, it's a general post for everyone.

"Oh your area is growing!"
"Here's 20,000 reasons why that doesn't matter...."

Who the **** does that? What drives a person to be like that? I hope you guys aren't that way to your significant others.
Come on now this isn't your first go round on C-D you're supposed to say something incendiary and then get popcorn and watch people go ape s***
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Old 03-26-2015, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,479 posts, read 7,719,547 times
Reputation: 7295
On a more positive note I am quite delighted that Detroit is continuing its stabilization from last year and that Buffalo has joined it in the green zone this year.

Luckily this is one of the more successful yearly estimates in a while, think of it this way, population decline for places over 1 million is only restricted to two or three places in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Hartford. While that is unfortunate for them and I think most can sympathize with that, the bright side is that we have been accustomed to seeing so much worse that this year looks great in comparison. I know Rochester posted a (slight) decline but 701 people is not a world-beating rate of decline, I will just consider that stagnation (even though slow growth is norm in stagnation rather than slight decline).
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Old 03-26-2015, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,223 posts, read 25,920,077 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UAE50 View Post
American migrants go where the jobs (or cheap living) are.

It would be weird if the Bay Area were not seeing healthy growth since it's going through a tech boom. People will pay these rents if they're guaranteed good jobs. I lived in the Bay Area during the last tech expansion, and it grew at a similar pace then dropped like a rock to rust-belt level population decline after the tech bubble popped in 2001.

80% of Bay Area counties had overall population decline not too long ago

An article from 2003: 6 Bay Area Counties Shrink in Population - latimes

It's certainly a boom and bust city. It's interesting how things can change so dramatically. Will be interested to see how it fares after this bubble cools off (or pops).

Washington, D.C. is already going the same direction. The population growth will probably be nothing next year, if you look at how the numbers have dramatically shrunk each year after government austerity. Houston is also majorly cooling even though the numbers still look big. Houston was growing by much larger numbers in previous years, and it coincides with the dropping oil prices... and these estimates were taken way before the recent plunge in oil prices. Will be interesting to see it next year. But unlike Washington and the Bay Area, Houston is cheap so that will keep it from being a no-growth city.
You honestly won't see it until March 2017 considering the estimates are between July 1st of each year. I think it will show a slow down for next year, but you will still see considerable growth unless people have moved away. Also, I think this is the fastest Houston has actually grown this decade. I could be wrong. But I think DFW grew faster than Houston last year.

*edit* Houston grew the fastest last year as well but increased by 138,000 from 7/1/2012 to 7/1/2013.
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Old 03-26-2015, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,479 posts, read 7,719,547 times
Reputation: 7295
Houston has had three different oil busts since the 1990s with the most devastating one being in 2008 where the price of oil dropped from an all-time high in the world of Brent $147 dollars a barrel, I believe, to Brent $30 dollars a barrel and the area did not experience a population loss in that frame (and the loss on WTI was proportionate to Brent just didn't have a $150 peak). It stayed consistent with it's 25 year average of between 100,000-120,000 per year growth (which would obviously be a drop from this years' 156,000). The area has grown by a minimum of 100,000 people per year for 25 years now. It's immigration, which is consistent and has been consistent for 25 years + natural increase in newborns will keep it over 100,000 easily every year even in the worst case oil collapse. The newborns added and immigration by itself takes it into the high 90,000s range and like someone else mentioned, it is a cheap city, where negative domestic migration is not going to be a factor for the place in the future. In the 1980s that oil bust was a different dynamic, one where oil literally was 85% of the areas' economy. It is 38% now.

Houston grew faster than Dallas-Fort Worth last year. 138,000 for Houston versus 110,000 for Dallas-Fort Worth last year.

Now Washington, D.C. is a different story. The cool down in Washington almost assuredly means a negative domestic migration, the place is not cheap by any means and that is what will do its growth in (as in keep its growth slower than the boom years). Although I fully anticipate at minimum 50,000 every year for the rest of this decade (and I lowballed it too). That's just off of its natural increase and immigration.

Also, what is causing Chicago's slowdown? Sort of out of the left field is it not? The place cooled from last year and I cant tell why that happened.

Last edited by Facts Kill Rhetoric; 03-26-2015 at 05:33 PM..
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Old 03-26-2015, 05:35 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
3,238 posts, read 3,479,986 times
Reputation: 2850
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoninATX View Post
That's a first. It's great news to hear but still Texas ranks high in birth rates.
Yes it is. Among US states Texas is in the top5, which is very impressive for such a big state, and party explains the growth of Texas cities.
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:30 PM
 
12,204 posts, read 17,577,064 times
Reputation: 3350
Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
A closer look at Combined Statistical Areas with a population of 5 Million+

Annual Population Growth Rate, 2013-2014
Houston +2.40%
Dallas +1.85%
Atlanta +1.52%
San Francisco +1.33%
Miami +1.17%
Washington DC +0.87%
Los Angeles +0.77%
Boston +0.52%
New York +0.39%
Philadelphia +0.22%
Chicago +0.08%
Detroit +0.01%

Net Domestic Migration, 2013-2014
Houston +65,794
Dallas +55,515
Atlanta +33,533
San Francisco +17,465
Miami -4,462
Boston -15,084
Detroit -25,012
Philadelphia -25,644
Washington DC -29,573
Los Angeles -52,620
Chicago -67,692
New York -182,820
Please tell me where you got your info from.
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