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Old 03-26-2015, 07:52 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
actually building out from 19147 (Really Broad and Christian) by tract

at 2.9 sq miles 118K and 41K ppsm
at 3.1 sq miles 122K and 40K ppsm
at 4.1 sq miles 149K and 37K ppsm


And you believe 30K people will move into that 3 sq mile area in 5 years? (while the area already already has impressive density and is growing at last years run rate for all of the DC that would represent nearly 65% of people moving into DC? Sometimes your math and projections confuse me to be honest)

Edit - saw you removed the reference that no area in Philly would surpass that density in 3 sq miles - but yes there are - I stopped at 4 sq miles aggregating tracts

Not 5 years, 10 years. This is 2010 data. It's probably better to look at a bigger footprint also. Probably 5 square mile's.

Last edited by MDAllstar; 03-26-2015 at 08:06 AM..
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
if DC continues to boom for another decade or more it may pass Philly and Chicago on average city density - doubtful on Boston as like DC its small sq mile wise relatively and Boston is denser. I don't see DC being more dense then Philly or Chicago if either of those were limited to 60 sq miles in their core - Philly and Chicago today are over 1 million in their core 50-60 sq miles - both are today more dense SF in the same core footprint when compared to SF at ~48 sq miles. So yes as a city could be denser but the land area of Philly is more than twice that of DC and chicago is more than 3 times larger in terms of total land area

I agree. I was just saying it would close the gap. D.C. will not have a chance to really contend to passing them until downtown D.C. office buildings pick up their conversions to residential which will happen slowly over the next 15-20 years. That is the major elephant in the room for D.C. It has to happen for D.C. to have any chance.
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:56 AM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Not 5 years, 10 years. This is 2010 data.
still 30K in that small area is pretty crazy - does not seem to pass the sniff test - that is like 8K unit per sq mile added or probably close to 24K (assuming even 200 (high estimate) units per project that translates 120 new large projects in this space) units in total. Not saying it can't happen but am personally skeptical of that those numbers in this space
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:04 AM
 
Location: The City
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the one thing DT DC has is with the silver line now reverse commuting is made simpler though, which I think is a very thing
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:09 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
still 30K in that small area is pretty crazy - does not seem to pass the sniff test - that is like 8K unit per sq mile added or probably close to 24K (assuming even 200 (high estimate) units per project that translates 120 new large projects in this space) units in total. Not saying it can't happen but am personally skeptical of that those numbers in this space

I would say the footprint needs to be 12 sq. mile's and probably start in Shaw to pick up NOMA, Mt. Vernon Triangle, Northwest One, Atlas District/H Street, the Wharf, Buzzard Point, Capital Riverfront, SW Eco District, and Union Market. I guess we won't really know until 2020 though anyway.

Last edited by MDAllstar; 03-26-2015 at 08:30 AM..
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:29 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
the one thing DT DC has is with the silver line now reverse commuting is made simpler though, which I think is a very thing

The intersection of 5th St. and N St. NW Washington D.C. picks up all the development zones with a 2 mile radius. It's a total of 12 sq. mile's. That's probably the best study area to see what has happened since 2010 when the next census is done.

As of 2010, these were the stats:


Total Population 2010: 200,305 people
Total Population 2000: 180,346 people
Change in Population 2000-2010: +19,959 people (11.1% growth)
Population Density: 16,402 people per sq. mile
Land Area Sq. Mile: 12 mile's

Coordinates Used: 38.907145, -77.018923

I could see this area adding 70,000-80,000 people from 2010-2020. By 2030, probably close to 200,000 people from 2010-2030 based on development in that area.


2030 Census Estimate Based on Development in the Footprint:

Total Population 2030: Around 400,305 people
Total Population 2010: 200,305 people
Change in Population 2010-2030: Around +200,000 people
Population Density: Around 33,359 people per sq. mile
Land Area Sq. Mile: 12 mile's

Last edited by MDAllstar; 03-26-2015 at 08:50 AM..
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:47 AM
 
Location: The City
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200K people assuming mostly new development would require ~715 new projects in this space averaging 200 new units per and an occupancy of 1.4 people per unit - again not saying it cant happen but to me it just doesn't make sense in numbers

How many total projects are under construction now - most indicators would suggest DC cant sustain the current level of development

your 80K number in this decade would suggest nearly 300 projects of this scale - are there even 50 today under construction in all of DC?
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:51 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
200K people assuming mostly new development would require ~715 new projects in this space averaging 200 new units per and an occupancy of 1.4 people per unit - again not saying it cant happen but to me it just doesn't make sense in numbers

How many total projects are under construction now - most indicators would suggest DC cant sustain the current level of development

your 80K number in this decade would suggest nearly 300 projects of this scale - are there even 50 today under construction in all of DC?

D.C. has added 58,000 people already from 2010-2015 and almost all of them are in this 12 sq. mile footprint footprint. This 12 sq. mile footprint has an average closer to 300 units per building by the way.
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:55 AM
 
Location: The City
21,945 posts, read 30,810,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
The intersection of 5th St. and N St. NW Washington D.C. picks up all the development zones with a 2 mile radius. It's a total of 12 sq. mile's. That's probably the best study area to see what has happened since 2010 when the next census is done.

As of 2010, these were the stats:


Total Population 2010: 200,305 people
Total Population 2000: 180,346 people
Change in Population 2000-2010: +19,959 people (11.1% growth)
Population Density: 16,402 people per sq. mile
Land Area Sq. Mile: 12 mile's

Coordinates Used: 38.907145, -77.018923

I could see this area adding 70,000-80,000 people from 2010-2020. By 2030, probably close to 200,000 people from 2010-2030 based on development in that area.


2030 Census Estimate Based on Development in the Footprint:

Total Population 2030: Around 400,305 people
Total Population 2010: 200,305 people
Change in Population 2010-2030: Around +200,000 people
Population Density: Around 33,359 people per sq. mile
Land Area Sq. Mile: 12 mile's
using a similar method from 19147

2010 Population 221K in 10 sq (limited to PA as 2 miles would carry into NJ so is less than 12 sq miles) miles and 23K ppsm
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:00 AM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
D.C. has added 58,000 people already from 2010-2015 and almost all of them are in this 12 sq. mile footprint footprint. This 12 sq. mile footprint has an average closer to 300 units per building by the way.
all in this area? everyone or nearly everyone?

so then at 300 and 1.4 people per unit. since 2010 138 new projects have been built in this space averaging 300 units per - or 41+K units have delivered in this space since 2010?

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